WHY CHAVEZ FEELS THREATENED BY THE COUP IN HONDURAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001000 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2024 TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR VE SUBJECT: WHY CHAVEZ FEELS THREATENED BY THE COUP IN HONDURAS CARACAS 00001000 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Darnall Steuart, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: President Chavez's public statements and actions indicate that he feels threatened by the June 28 military ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya. While initially leading the international response to the coup, Chavez is now side-lined by the mediation process led by President of Costa Rica Oscar Arias. Chavez views the overthrow as a threat to the sustainability and growth of the Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas (ALBA). He also views the event as a personal affront to his authority in Latin America, and to some extent appears to consider it a threat to his political power in Venezuela. Accordingly, he is willing to respond with whatever means possible, including, possibly, clandestine military aid to Zelaya's supporters in Honduras. Chavez, and other senior Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) officials, continue to blame the United States for the coup in Honduras. This coup is one of the first major setbacks to Chavez's vision of a united Latin America led by Venezuela, and Chavez is taking the situation personally. End Summary. -------------- NOT LOOKING FOR A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION -------------- ¶2. (C) Chavez's primary concern about the situation in Honduras is the continuation of his Bolivarian Revolution, not the presidency per se of Zelaya, nor a peaceful resolution of the conflict. For that reason, he has encouraged Zelaya to return regardless of the outcome. The July 5th return attempt, coinciding exactly with Venezuela's official National Day celebration, was only possible because of President Chavez's explicit support - Venezuela lent aircraft and pilots for the failed attempt that resulted in the death of a Zelaya supporter. In numerous public speeches Chavez has openly called for an insurgency to rise against the provisional government in Honduras, and there are rumors of Venezuelan military aid and training for Zelaya supporters. -------------- A DISTRACTION FROM LOCAL ISSUES -------------- ¶3. (C) In Venezuela, Chavez's personal popularity greatly exceeds that of his 21st Century Bolivarian Revolution. Polls consistently show little support for major changes called for by Chavez like increasing federal control, closing independent media outlets, and transforming the education system. Chavez relies on his personal popularity, and a disengaged population, to make changes. Similarly, Chavez is using his personal popularity to rally his base about Honduras. Chavista organizations in Venezuela have dutifully erected signs near the Caracas international airport condemning the "dictatorship" in Honduras, and about 200 people marched in downtown Caracas to support Zelaya on July ¶22. Chavez's attention to Honduras during a time of increasing hardship for many Venezuelans has, however, resulted in criticism. A local community leader in the slum of Petare told PolOff July 15 that Chavez seems too busy with international issues to focus on the needs of the poor. Opposition elected officials are grateful for the respite from Chavez's attention - Mayor of Baruta Gerardo Blyde said to PolOffs July 27, "when Chavez is busy outside of the country, like with Honduras, I am always glad." -------------- CHAVEZ IS TAKING IT PERSONALLY -------------- ¶4. (C) Since the day Zelaya was ousted, President Chavez has appeared to take the coup personally and has said so publicly; a local Venezuelan pollster told EmbOffs July 21 that the day after Zelaya's ouster, 40% of international media outlets' coverage of the coup in Honduras was about Venezuela. Chavez links the events in Honduras with the failed coup attempt against him in April 2002, and calls the coup a "threat to ALBA." Indeed, the coup does threaten ALBA; one of the provisional government's early actions was to withdraw Honduras from the Alliance. On July 21 Venezuelan diplomats were expelled from Honduras and the Hondurans called back their diplomats from Venezuela. (Note: Chavez has ordered his diplomats to remain in Tegucigalpa, telling them to ignore the "illegal government." As of July 25 the Honduran Ambassador to Venezuela was still attending CARACAS 00001000 002.2 OF 002 official GBRV events in Caracas. End Note.) In a July 21 nationally televised program Chavez said, "the coup against Honduras is not only against the people of Honduras and against President Zelaya, it is also against the people of our America, it is against Venezuela, and it is against the Bolivarian Alliance!" He also said that the U.S. must have supported the coup, which was "a threat against all of us." He continued by saying, "Washington and Colombia have just announced that thousands of 'yanqui' soldiers will arrive in Colombia to fight drug traffickers and terrorists...and the U.S. has just accused me, Chavez, of supporting drug traffickers and terrorists!" Chavez has repeated the theme that events in Honduras threaten Venezuela frequently over recent weeks. He has declared that the real reason Zelaya was overthrown was to stop Chavez's influence in Honduras. ¶5. (C) Comment: Chavez appears to have his own "domino theory," whereby the threat to Honduras's continuation in the Bolivarian Revolution also threatens him. Chavez has ordered Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro and Vice-Minister for Latin America and the Caribbean Francisco Arias Cardenas to spend significant time outside Venezuela promoting the return of Zelaya. The Honduran president's continued exile calls into doubt Chavez's vision of maintaining and expanding his influence in Latin America. CAULFIELD