WHY CHAVEZ FEELS THREATENED BY THE COUP IN HONDURAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001000

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2024
TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR VE
SUBJECT: WHY CHAVEZ FEELS THREATENED BY THE COUP IN HONDURAS

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Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Darnall Steuart,
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: President Chavez's public statements and
actions indicate that he feels threatened by the June 28
military ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya. While
initially leading the international response to the coup,
Chavez is now side-lined by the mediation process led by
President of Costa Rica Oscar Arias. Chavez views the
overthrow as a threat to the sustainability and growth of the
Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas (ALBA). He also views
the event as a personal affront to his authority in Latin
America, and to some extent appears to consider it a threat
to his political power in Venezuela. Accordingly, he is
willing to respond with whatever means possible, including,
possibly, clandestine military aid to Zelaya's supporters in
Honduras. Chavez, and other senior Government of the
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (GBRV) officials, continue
to blame the United States for the coup in Honduras. This
coup is one of the first major setbacks to Chavez's vision of
a united Latin America led by Venezuela, and Chavez is taking
the situation personally. End Summary.

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NOT LOOKING FOR A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION
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2. (C) Chavez's primary concern about the situation in
Honduras is the continuation of his Bolivarian Revolution,
not the presidency per se of Zelaya, nor a peaceful
resolution of the conflict. For that reason, he has
encouraged Zelaya to return regardless of the outcome. The
July 5th return attempt, coinciding exactly with Venezuela's
official National Day celebration, was only possible because
of President Chavez's explicit support - Venezuela lent
aircraft and pilots for the failed attempt that resulted in
the death of a Zelaya supporter. In numerous public speeches
Chavez has openly called for an insurgency to rise against
the provisional government in Honduras, and there are rumors
of Venezuelan military aid and training for Zelaya
supporters.

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A DISTRACTION FROM LOCAL ISSUES
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3. (C) In Venezuela, Chavez's personal popularity greatly
exceeds that of his 21st Century Bolivarian Revolution.
Polls consistently show little support for major changes
called for by Chavez like increasing federal control, closing
independent media outlets, and transforming the education
system. Chavez relies on his personal popularity, and a
disengaged population, to make changes. Similarly, Chavez is
using his personal popularity to rally his base about
Honduras. Chavista organizations in Venezuela have dutifully
erected signs near the Caracas international airport
condemning the "dictatorship" in Honduras, and about 200
people marched in downtown Caracas to support Zelaya on July

22. Chavez's attention to Honduras during a time of
increasing hardship for many Venezuelans has, however,
resulted in criticism. A local community leader in the slum
of Petare told PolOff July 15 that Chavez seems too busy with
international issues to focus on the needs of the poor.
Opposition elected officials are grateful for the respite
from Chavez's attention - Mayor of Baruta Gerardo Blyde said
to PolOffs July 27, "when Chavez is busy outside of the
country, like with Honduras, I am always glad."

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CHAVEZ IS TAKING IT PERSONALLY
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4. (C) Since the day Zelaya was ousted, President Chavez has
appeared to take the coup personally and has said so
publicly; a local Venezuelan pollster told EmbOffs July 21
that the day after Zelaya's ouster, 40% of international
media outlets' coverage of the coup in Honduras was about
Venezuela. Chavez links the events in Honduras with the
failed coup attempt against him in April 2002, and calls the
coup a "threat to ALBA." Indeed, the coup does threaten
ALBA; one of the provisional government's early actions was
to withdraw Honduras from the Alliance. On July 21
Venezuelan diplomats were expelled from Honduras and the
Hondurans called back their diplomats from Venezuela. (Note:
Chavez has ordered his diplomats to remain in Tegucigalpa,
telling them to ignore the "illegal government." As of July
25 the Honduran Ambassador to Venezuela was still attending

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official GBRV events in Caracas. End Note.) In a July 21
nationally televised program Chavez said, "the coup against
Honduras is not only against the people of Honduras and
against President Zelaya, it is also against the people of
our America, it is against Venezuela, and it is against the
Bolivarian Alliance!" He also said that the U.S. must have
supported the coup, which was "a threat against all of us."
He continued by saying, "Washington and Colombia have just
announced that thousands of 'yanqui' soldiers will arrive in
Colombia to fight drug traffickers and terrorists...and the
U.S. has just accused me, Chavez, of supporting drug
traffickers and terrorists!" Chavez has repeated the theme
that events in Honduras threaten Venezuela frequently over
recent weeks. He has declared that the real reason Zelaya
was overthrown was to stop Chavez's influence in Honduras.


5. (C) Comment: Chavez appears to have his own "domino
theory," whereby the threat to Honduras's continuation in the
Bolivarian Revolution also threatens him. Chavez has ordered
Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro and Vice-Minister for Latin
America and the Caribbean Francisco Arias Cardenas to spend
significant time outside Venezuela promoting the return of
Zelaya. The Honduran president's continued exile calls into
doubt Chavez's vision of maintaining and expanding his
influence in Latin America.

CAULFIELD