ANC INSIDERS DISCUSS THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAPE TOWN 000079

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PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO JOHANNESBURG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2019
TAGS: PREL KDEM SF
SUBJECT: ANC INSIDERS DISCUSS THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Classified By: Alberta Mayberry for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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The Chief Whip of the ANC, Mr. Mynami Booi
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1. (C) On March 6, Poloff met with Mr. Mynami Booi, the
Chief Whip of the African National Congress (ANC),and number
69 on the party list, to discuss the upcoming elections. Mr.
Booi said that he is likely to remain the Chief Whip after
the new government is formed in April, but said he was not
sure whether the current speaker would remain the same. Booi
explained that the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the
ANC would meet immediately following the election to appoint
key positions in Parliament. The Speaker then will convene
Parliament so that a president can be elected. In response
to Poloffs question regarding what will happen to ANC
President Jacob Zuma if his corruption case goes forward,
Booi said &there is no way Zuma will step down as President
of the ANC, despite his corruption trial.8


2. (C) When discussing Western Cape Provincial elections,
Booi said the ANC Provincial Executive would debate the three
names for Premier: Lynne Brown (current Premier of the
Western Cape),Mcebisi Skwatsha (ANC Chairman for the Western
Cape) and Chris Neeson ( a business man and a relative
unknown in politics) and make a formal recommendation to the
NEC. When asked why Skwatsha would be included in the top
three names when he was essentially a &lame duck8 within
the ANC, Booi said many people in the Western Cape still like
Skwatsha. Note: Neeson,s name does not appear on any of
the ANC,s lists posted on its website, although both Booi
and Tahir Salih (see below) said Neeson is in the running and
Booi even encouraged Poloff to meet with Neeson and gave
Poloff his phone number. End note.

3.( SBU) Poloff and Booi also discussed whether SA will be
ready to proceed with the elections as planned on April 22 if
overseas voters are allowed to vote, even the ones who are
not already registered. Booi said, &I hope the Independent
Electoral Commission is ready and does the right thing,8 but
did not elaborate. Booi finished the meeting by saying he
hopes U.S. President Obama will attend &Zuma,s inauguration
in April.8

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Tahir Salie, ANC member and right hand man to Presidential
Advisor Ibrahim Rasool
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4. (C ) On March 9, Poloff met with Mr. Tahir Salie, an ANC
member and right hand man to Mr. Ibrahim Rasool, former
Premier of the Western Cape and currently an advisor to the
President of SA, Kgalema Motlanthe. Salie discussed his
views of the upcoming election with Poloff. When asked
whether Zuma would consider withdrawing as the ANC,s choice
for President, he said the only way that would happen is if
Mandela told him to step down. Furthermore, Salie said that
he and others in the ANC believe that the only reason Mandela
attended a recent ANC rally in the Eastern Cape was in
exchange for Zuma agreeing to step down as the ANC,s choice
for President if Mandela told him to as a result of Zuma,s
corruption trial &getting too hot.8 If Zuma were to step
down, Salie thinks Baleka Mbete, the current Vice-President,
would be the party,s likely candidate, not Mothlante. The
NEC believes Mothlante is too independent and the NEC does
not like that, said Salie. When discussing ANC Youth League
Qnot like that, said Salie. When discussing ANC Youth League
President Julius Malema and his influence over both the party
and the voters, Salie said, &Zuma owes Malema for wining him
the party,s Presidency at the ANC Convention in Polikwane in
December 2007.8 Furthermore, Salie thinks Malema,s
comments actually win the ANC votes rather than cost them
votes.


5. ( C) When discussing the race for the Western Cape, Salie
believes either current Premier Lynne Brown or newcomer Chris
Neeson would be appointed premier if the ANC wins the Western
Cape. However, he believes the Democratic Alliance (DA) will
win the province. He said Hellen Zille, the leader of the DA
appeals to many people in the Western Cape, regardless of
racial lines; due to her proven track record of service
delivery during her tenure as Mayor of Cape Town. Salie also
said that Congress of the People (COPE) is having trouble
raising money and approached former Western Cape Premier,
Ibrahim Rasool, as well as himself for donations, which they
both declined to give. One example of COPE,s lack of funds
is the fact that there are no COPE campaign posters in the
Western Cape, he said. In contrast to COPE,s lack of
funds, the ANC has a nine million rand ($900,000) campaign

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budget in the Western Cape, more than any other province,
said Salih.


6. (C) Salie said the ANC is concerned that Rasool will jump
to COPE. Rasool was largely popular during his time as the
Western Cape Premier and would pull a large number of colored
voters, which is key in the Western Cape. To avoid Rasool
going to COPE, the ANC has &promised8 him one of three key
positions once the new government is elected: Deputy Minister
of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Trade and Industry, or
Minister in the Presidency. When the ANC lists were
published and Rasool saw he was number six on the Provincial
to National List, he wrote a letter to ANC Secretary General
Gwede Mantashe expressing his anger that he was not on the
National to National list since he was promised a Cabinet
level position if he remained with the ANC. Rasool was again
&promised8 by top ANC officials that he would still receive
one of the three previously mentioned positions. Salie also
noted that COPE offered the Western Cape Premiership to
Rasool if he joined COPE, which Rasool declined. Several
times throughout the conversation, Salie expressed his
disappointment that COPE was not better organized and that
there seems to be so much infighting among COPE party
leaders. He also said that former President Thabo Mbeki is
likely to join COPE before the elections. Comment. Salie,s
seemingly genuine disappointment expressed several times
throughout the conversation in COPE,s poor organizational
structure seems to indicate that he may have originally
considering joining COPE, especially if what he said about
Mbeki joining COPE is true since he (and Rasool) are both
close to Mbeki . End comment.
MAYBERRY