CANDIDATES FOR WESTERN CAPE PREMIER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAPE TOWN 000042 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SF SUBJECT: CANDIDATES FOR WESTERN CAPE PREMIER ¶1. (U) Summary. The race for the Western Cape has gained momentum as political parties announced their candidates for the Premiership of the province. The Democratic Alliance's (DA) candidate is Helen Zille, currently the mayor of Cape Town and the leader of the DA. The Independent Democrats (ID) have nominated Patricia De Lille, who is the founder and leader of the ID as well as the head of the party in Parliament. Newcomer, the Congress of the People (COPE), announced that Dr. Allan Boesak will lead the Party in the province. It is expected that current Premier Lynne Brown will receive the African National Congress (ANC) nomination, although the ANC has only confirmed that she one of its potential candidates for Premier, along with ANC Western Cape party chairman Msebisi Skwatsha. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) It was heavily reported in the press that after much internal discussions, the DA leader and Cape Town mayor Helen Zille announced that she would be the party's premier candidate in the province. Zille said that the party was working towards obtaining a majority in the Western Cape so that it could form its own government, but did not rule out the possibility of a coalition if necessary. She hoped to wrest control of the province from the ANC and make it a showcase of competent DA governance that will impress voters around the country, but added that she would remain Mayor if not elected as Premier. She also confirmed that she would not be leading the DA in Parliament. This is in line with what Poloff was told when she met with Zille as well as in a recent meeting with Ryan Coetzee, one of two DA members tipped to be the new leader of the DA in Parliament. Coetzee said that the DA is happy to work with the ID and COPE in a coalition government, but would exclude a coalition with the ANC because, "the whole purpose of the DA is to increase democracy by decreasing the ANC's current stronghold." ¶3. (U) The ID officially announced that party president, Patricia De Lille, would be campaigning for the position of Premier while also remaining in the top spot on the party's national list. This means that if De Lille fails to secure the Premiership for her party she will still lead the ID in Parliament. At a press conference De Lille reiterated her party's willingness to form a coalition if necessary, but stressed that the ID would not do so at the expense of its identity or ideology. ¶4. (U) Newly formed political party, COPE was expected to announce its candidate for Premier of the Western Cape on February 23, but the announcement was delayed when its preferred candidate, Professor Russel Botman, declined the nomination. The party was then forced to rely on its second choice, Dr. Allan Boesak, to accept the nomination for the Province's top post. Boesak was formerly the ANC leader of the Western Cape, but was politically sidelined by the ANC after his conviction in 1999 on fraud and theft charges over donor funds for which he received a six year prison sentence. In 2005, he was given a presidential pardon by former president Thabo Mbeki. ¶5. (SBU) The ANC is likely to confirm current Premier Lynne Brown as its candidate for Premiership. There is some speculation that Western Cape party chairman Msebisi Skwatsha could receive the nomination, but it seems that he is far to divisive even within the ANC to allow him to run for Premier. In December, Skwatsha was sidelined by the ANC for failing to register several ANC candidates in the local by-elections in the Western Cape. The ANC subsequently Qin the local by-elections in the Western Cape. The ANC subsequently blamed losses at the polls on Skwatsha's failure to register the candidates. (Comment: Although the ANC has publically blamed Skwatsha for failing to register candidates in the local by-elections and the subsequent losses suffered by the party, Post wonders if this was a strategic move by the ANC. The ANC would not have wanted to suffer huge losses to COPE and the DA ahead of a national election as this may have resulted in voters losing confidence in the party. By not registering candidates, the ANC is able to save face as the party can attribute the losses to the failure to place the candidates on the ballot, rather than not being popular enough in the province. End Comment. ) Although Skwatsha is still party chairman in name, he is essentially a "lame-duck." The Chief Whip for the ANC, Nyamnai Booi, told Poloff that after the by-election fiasco, the ANC sent in other members to run the party in the Western Cape and also said Skwatsha is no longer allowed to make any decisions regarding the party in the Western Cape without consulting others. ¶6. (U) Comment. The race for the Western Cape will be heavily contested in the upcoming national election. The City of Cape Town is already in the hands of the opposition alliance headed by the DA and the ANC has been struggling to regain its foothold in the province. The Western Cape is the only part of the country in which the ANC is not dominant. Opposition parties have established a foothold in the province, and, as a consequence, have focused on shoring their base in this part of the country. End comment. ¶7. (U) Comment. The DA can rely on Zille's achievements as Mayor when campaigning in the province, while the ID's De Lille has a strong following among the colored communities. COPE's choice of Allan Boesak for Premier could garner a lot of the colored votes, which is key in the Western Cape, but, could also ultimately harm the party since he is a controversial figure with a criminal record. If COPE wishes to campaign on a family values and an anti-crime and anti-corruption ticket, Boesak could damage COPE's credibility. There are fears that his less than favorable past could be used as CAPE TOWN 00000042 002 OF 002 an election platform for the DA who is expected to campaign heavily against corruption and fraud. This past weekend COPE went on the offensive in an attempt to diminish any attacks on Boesak's past. At a rally in Paarl, Boesak, accompanied by one of COPE's Deputy Presidents Sam Shilowa, told supporters that he took the fall for the ANC and accused the ANC of keeping silent while he wrongly went to jail for helping the liberation struggle. With the fairly recent emergence of COPE and the strong gains made by the DA in the recent by-elections it appears unlikely that the ANC will make any significant gains in the Western Cape despite recently deploying members to manage the party in the region. End comment.