AUSTRALIAN VIEWS ON THE BANGKOK UNFCCC MEETINGS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000965

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STATE FOR S/SECC STERN, OES/EGC DEROSA-JOYNT, WHITE HOUSE
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SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN VIEWS ON THE BANGKOK UNFCCC MEETINGS

REF: A. SECSTATE 107536

B. CANBERRA 893


1. (SBU) Summary. Australia is generally positive about the
outcomes of the recent Bangkok UNFCCC meetings. The
assessment that the negotiations will be tough has not
changed, but there is a strong sense that key issues like
adaptation, legal form of an agreement, and REDD can be moved
ahead at the negotiating level. The toughest issues (carbon
mitigation and financing) will have to be dealt with at the
senior political level. Minister Wong will travel this week
to the Barcelona Greenland Dialogue, then return to Canberra
to lead the effort to pass domestic legislation. She will
not be able to attend any additional events until the
Copenhagen meetings themselves. End Summary.

Crunch Time, a Good Sign
--------------


2. (SBU) Econoff met with Robert Owen-Jones, Assistant
Secretary for Multilateral Negotiations at the Department of
Climate Change on October 21. Owen-Jones said the
negotiating team thought that Bangkok went fairly well. On
several key issues it was clear that developing countries do
not have a unified position and are open to negotiation.
Owen-Jones said this lack of a unified G-77 bloc on
adaptation funding, reducing emissions for deforestation and
forest degradation (REDD) and on the form of a post-2012
agreement is a chance for progress.


3. (SBU) In Owen-Jones' view, the recognition by many at the
conference that it was now "crunch time" has led to more
realistic and reasonable views from key players on a path
forward. He pointed to the recently leaked letter from
Indian Environment Minister Ramesh to Prime Minister Singh as
a sign that India was already thinking along these lines.


4. (SBU) Minister Wong's climate advisor, Kristina Hickey,
told Econoff on October 26 that the negotiations would be
"tough but achievable." Hickey said political commitment by
leaders would be needed to break the impasse on mitigation
commitments and financing, but that other issues (like REDD)
were moving forward in the negotiations. She said PM Rudd
welcomed Danish PM Rasmussen's call for faster progress on
October 23. Rudd subsequently agreed to a request to serve
as a "friend of the Chair" on October 27. The greatest
difficulty, according to Hickey, is putting together a strong
enough political agreement that contains commitments without
having all details ironed out in December. Wong will attend
the Greenland Dialogue meetings in Barcelona but will not
attend the UNFCCC sessions and will not travel again until
Copenhagen itself.

A "Copenhagen Package"
--------------


5. (SBU) According to a GOA paper provided by Owen-Jones,
the Copenhagen package that GOA is developing with Denmark
would include:

-- A "political agreement" that would establish a shared
vision and post-2012 architecture, capture agreement on each
element of the 2007 Bali Action Plan, and settle areas for
immediate action before 2012; and

-- A "set of decisions" that set up a post-2012 architecture
and that would detail immediate actions on issues like
Qand that would detail immediate actions on issues like
funding low emissions development plans and REDD mechanisms.


6. (SBU) The package would also make a series of decisions
that would enable an Implementing Agreement or Agreements on
post-2012 actions. These actions would center on the
principles in the Bali Action Plan, as agreed to in the
political document. The Australian proposal also argues that

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the Copenhagen meeting must set out a future calendar to
negotiate these decisions.


7. (SBU) The possibility that negotiations will lead to a
process beyond Copenhagen presents some problems for the
government's domestic CPRS legislation. The Rudd government
has said that it will set its own emissions target based on
what other countries are willing to do. If it passes
domestic legislation with the help of moderate opposition in
November as expected (ref B),it will be under pressure to
set a mid-term target near its declared minimum of 5-10% in
the absence of a firm deal. If negotiations lead to a robust
agreement later in the year, the government would likely have
to raise its ambitions before it sets its initial scheme cap
for 2012-2015 in July of 2010, and could face calls from
industry for compensation for changing the target.


8. (SBU) Comment: The views on the outcomes of the Bangkok
meetings are more positive within government, and even some
of our NGO contacts, than the more negative public comments
that have come from some countries and commentators.
Australia is keen to stay in the center of the mix, but the
need to settle their domestic policy means Rudd and Wong will
be concentrating on issues at home over the next several
weeks.

CLUNE