POLITICAL STORM OVER ASYLUM SEEKERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000934 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR PRM AND SA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SMIG PREF ELAB ECON AS SUBJECT: POLITICAL STORM OVER ASYLUM SEEKERS REF: A. A. CANBERRA 255 ¶B. B. CANBERRA 807 CANBERRA 00000934 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The continued surge in asylum seekers entering Australia by boat is a growing political challenge for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. The immigration detention center on Christmas Island is approaching capacity, and PM Rudd has discussed the issue with his Indonesian counterpart. The Opposition maintains the government's softening of immigration laws is encouraging people smugglers, while refugee advocates are worried that Rudd's tough rhetoric on people smugglers is demonizing asylum seekers. The Labor party - which was burnt by this issue at the 2001 election - is fearful of being viewed as "soft" on border security. Rudd's former foreign adviser confided to us that this issue is politically dangerous for Rudd, and that his tough rhetoric is likely to backfire. End Summary Background -------------- ¶2. (U) Over the last year, there has been a significant surge in the number of asylum seekers seeking to enter Australia by boat. This coincided with changes to immigration laws including: - the abolition of temporary protection visas (TPVs) for unauthorized arrivals determined to be refugees. Refugees holding TPVs could be sent home when their visas expired; - after health and security checks, only holding unauthorized arrivals in detention as a last resort; - the abolition of the "Pacific Solution" which sent unauthorized arrivals to Nauru and Manus Island for processing. The Opposition claims this has given the green light to people smugglers, while the government points to "push factors" such as instability in Sri Lanka, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. According to the government, organized crime is responsible for the "vast majority" of arrivals. In 2001, an election year, the Howard government ruthlessly exploited the issue of border protection by toughening laws and exploiting divisions in the Labor party. During the campaign, Howard famously remarked, "We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come." Subsequently, the Labor party wants to be seen as "tough" on illegal immigration. Recent Front Page News -------------- ¶3. (U) The issue once again hit the front pages when it was revealed October 13 that Prime Minister Rudd called Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono shortly before the Indonesia navy intercepted a boat carrying Sri Lankan asylum seekers, on October 11. The government has boosted capacity on the Christmas Island detention center where unauthorized arrivals are processed. Prime Minister is defending his contact with President Yudhoyono, making "no apology" for his "hardline" stance on illegal immigration. He is describing people smugglers as a "scourge" and the "vilest form of people on the plant." Refugee advocates are warning that Rudd's rhetoric may promote the demonization of asylum seekers. The Opposition is considering supporting the reinstatement of temporary protection visas. A major poll released this week shows 76 percent of Australians are "somewhat concerned" or "very concerned" about unauthorized asylum seekers coming to Australia by boat. Immigrations Minister's Office Unfazed -------------- Q ¶4. (SBU) An adviser to Immigration Minister Chris Evans told us there was "no panic" in the government and that Labor MPs are united on the issue. Notwithstanding the intense media coverage on the latest arrivals, she said there had not been a significant increase in the "paper flow" going through Evan's office. She emphasized that cooperation between Australia and Indonesia on people smuggling is not a new development, and that the two countries are working well CANBERRA 00000934 002.2 OF 002 together. Evans often emphasized the human aspects of the ALP's immigration law changes. However, the adviser did not sense Rudd had overridden Evans on the issue. She anticipated the Opposition would vigorously pursue the Minister during Senate hearings next week. Views of Former Rudd Adviser -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Rudd's former foreign policy/national security adviser in Opposition, Peter Khalil (PROTECT) confided to us that Labor party MPs were very anxious about the asylum seeker issue due to the events of 2001. In Opposition, he advised Rudd to attack the amount of money spent on the Pacific Solution, but this was vetoed by senior party figures. Khalil predicted Rudd will "get hit" by the public on this issue because his actions would not be commensurate with his tough rhetoric; he contended internal politics made it virtually impossible for Rudd to significantly strengthen border protection laws. A better approach, he suggested, was for Rudd to use the power of government to calmly and rationally put the issue in perspective. He pointed out that there were around 60,000 cases of visa over-stayers per year, while only 1000 asylum seekers have entered Australian waters by boat so far in 2009. Not as potent an issue -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Comment: In terms of overall migration, the surge in asylum seekers is a drop in the ocean. But Rudd is not mentioning this, or lauding his government's more humane approach to asylum seekers. Given his dominance in the polls, some on the Left may be disappointed Rudd has not tried to create a new paradigm of debate on this issue. Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull, at heart a social liberal, probably feels uncomfortable pursuing this issue. However, he is desperate to reach out to conservatives in his party, and find an issue which he can appeal to "working families". The Labor party is unlikely to be as burnt by this issue as it was in 2001. Firstly, being the party in government gives Labor more creditability in national security debates. Secondly, the Howard government immigration policy was scandalized by high profile cases of wrongful detention. And thirdly, the threat of terrorism - which the Howard government linked with border protection - has declined in importance as a political issue. End Comment CLUNE