AUSTRALIA RETHINKING ITS FIJI POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000752 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2019 TAGS: EAID PGOV PREL AS FJ PP BP SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA RETHINKING ITS FIJI POLICY CANBERRA 00000752 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C/NF) EconCouns paid a courtesy call on GOA Parliamentary Secretary for Pacific Island Affairs Duncan Kerr on August 12 to review Australia's views on the recent Pacific Islands Forum meeting. Kerr discussed GOA aid to the Pacific and Fiji. Kerr said that while Australia remains extremely pessimistic about the prospects for the Bainimarama regime to move towards democracy and strongly supportive of a tough line, Canberra does not want to see a complete collapse. The GOA would support IFI financial assistance if Fiji nears economic collapse, according to Kerr, who expressed concern about Fiji,s potential fall to a failed state and the costs it would incur for Australia. He said that the GOA is close to exhausting its diplomatic options on Fiji to little apparent effect, and appeared sympathetic towards reengaging with Fijian military strongman Bainimarama. He requested input from the U.S. on a way forward. End summary. -------------- UNCERTAINTY IN THE PACIFIC -------------- ¶2. (C) Kerr noted that apart from Fiji, the GOA and especially AusAID has made progress in the Pacific, but notes the situation remains fluid. He said that sooner or later PNG Prime Minister Michael Somare will exit the political scene, and that internal actors are already beginning to position themselves for his departure. He also said that Solomon Islands, upcoming elections cast uncertainty on the future of Australia,s intervention there. ¶3. (C) Kerr highlighted the Cairns Compact on Strengthening Development Coordination in the Pacific, signed at the Pacific Island Forum in early August, which calls on donor countries to coordinate their efforts, avoid project fragmentation and duplication, and make sure that projects address priorities in recipient countries, national plans. He worried that the Pacific Island nations might see the Compact as a device by Australia and New Zealand to extend control and infringe on their sovereignty, and said that the GOA will proceed carefully to avoid inciting this perception. -------------- GOA WOULD APPROVE OF IFI SUPPORT TO FIJI -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Kerr was pessimistic about Fiji, noting severe deterioration in Fiji,s political, economic, and social conditions. He said, &We,ve made a cabinet-level decision that we don,t want to see Fiji move to a social and economic collapse.8 Calling it the &worst possible outcome,8 he said that Australia would be responsible for picking up a failed state, at a cost much higher than the GOA,s intervention in the Solomon Islands, while seeing Australia,s progress in strengthening weak Pacific Island nations undermined by Fiji,s collapse. He said that if Fiji verges on economic disaster, the GOA would support IFI intervention, including budget support. He wondered if Fiji strongman Frank Bainimarama is emboldened by the belief that the international community may ultimately concede to Qthe international community may ultimately concede to financially rescuing the regime. -------------- DIPLOMATIC DEAD-END? -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) Kerr said that the GOA has spent a great deal of time and energy on a diplomatic strategy designed to isolate Bainimarama by suspending Fiji from the PIF and the Commonwealth if he did not start moving in the right direction. Australia has built regional support for this approach, according to Kerr, who said that he was pleasantly surprised at the level of concern from PIF members at the recent leaders' retreat. With Fiji's suspension from the PIF CANBERRA 00000752 002.2 OF 002 and imminent suspension from the Commonwealth, Kerr expressed concern that Australia will have "exhausted" its diplomatic arsenal with no clear next step. He questioned the utility of gradually reducing engagement with Fiji, and appeared supportive of an idea by the GOA,s High Commissioner in Fiji to conduct &a surprise gesture of goodwill8 towards the military regime. However, he said, the diplomatic momentum and effort invested in punishing Fiji is difficult to stop, and a decision to change course must ultimately come from Prime Minister Rudd. -------------- SEARCHING FOR A WAY OUT -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Kerr believes that Bainimarama cannot give up power as he would end up at the mercy of his enemies, and suggested that the international community should find a safe way for him to step down. He also said that Bainimarama is the only military man who believes in a return to civilian rule, as less senior officers are getting the taste of being in power. Kerr said he worries that things could be worse if Bainimarama stops believing in his own rhetoric or if another military officer ousts and supplants him. He said that Bainimarama will &either be shot or we,ll have to do business with him.8 Australian High Commissioner to Fiji James Batley has instructions which allow him to speak with Bainimarama, according to Kerr, who complained that he has chosen to interpret his instructions in the narrowest possible way. -------------- THE U.S. CAN HELP -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Stressing his respect for and good relationship with Ambassador McGann, Kerr encouraged U.S. ideas on how to address Fiji. Reiterating U.S. opposition to the idea of terminating ongoing Fijian participation in existing peacekeeping operations, Econcouns said the United States shares Australia's concerns and approach even if we are not in complete agreement on every tactical move. Stressing that he was speaking personally, Kerr said that it may be useful for the U.S. to &ask us the obvious questions8 on what happens if and when Fiji has been suspended from the Commonwealth without showing any moderation in the regime's behavior. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) Kerr,s request for the U.S. to ask &the obvious questions8 appears to be an attempt to spur reevaluation of Australia,s Fiji policy. It seems that the GOA is on cruise control toward increasing disengagement with Fiji, without achieving any desired effect. Kerr appeared sympathetic to some level of reengagement with Bainimarama. Clune