WHALING: AUSTRALIA LOOKS TO OCTOBER MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000700 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR OES/OA PHELPS, COMMERCE PLEASE PASS NOAA, WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ SUTLEY, TOKYO FOR EST COBBS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2019 TAGS: SENV EFIS PREL AS SUBJECT: WHALING: AUSTRALIA LOOKS TO OCTOBER MEETING REF: A. CANBERRA 574 ¶B. CANBERRA 530 ¶C. TOKYO 1216 Classified By: Economic Counselor Edgard Kagan, Reasons 1.4(b)(d) THIS IS AN ACTION REQUEST - PLEASE SEE PARA 5 ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Australia was generally pleased with the outcomes at the International Whaling Commission (IWC) meetings in Madeira. The GOA has suspended temporarily efforts to pressure Japan in order to avoid legal action. PM Rudd's cabinet will consider legal action in mid-November, after assessing the outcome of the October small group meeting hosted by New Zealand. The GOA is holding off additional bilateral diplomacy with Japan over whaling in light of the upcoming elections, but is interested in meeting with incoming U.S. IWC Commissioner Monica Medina, even if not confirmed, ahead of the October meetings. The GOA has little hope that a change of government in Japan will change the dynamics of the situation (ref C). GOA's principal mid-level officers on whaling are moving on and a new team will take on whaling diplomacy this autumn. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Econoff met with Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Director for Marine Environment David Dutton on July ¶30. Dutton, who has been on leave since he returned from the IWC talks earlier this month, has been promoted and is moving on in early August to be replaced by Paula Watt, who is the former Deputy Head of Mission in Rome. IWC MOSTLY GOOD, CABINET DECISION IN NOVEMBER -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) According to Dutton, GOA reaction to the decisions at Madeira was generally positive. Although few of the GOA's most important goals were met at Madeira, and the Japanese refused to negotiate in any substantive area, a complete stalemate or collapse was considered a possibility, and avoiding that outcome was a win. The domestic dynamics of whaling in Australia have not changed, and the government will again come under increasing pressure as the mid-November sailing of the JARPA scientific whaling fleet nears. In Dutton's view, there needs to be some sign of a willingness to negotiate in good faith from Japan in the small group meetings planned for October. Recognizing that a U.S. policy under a new commissioner may not be finalized by the October meeting, Dutton said the view in the GOA is that without strong U.S. leadership the meetings are unlikely to get anywhere. The Cabinet has very divided views on next steps, including international legal action. It will wait for results from both the October meeting and the Japanese elections before considering the next step in mid-November. Dutton noted that all the major decision points for the GOA coincide with a press and NGO cycle which will ramp up domestic support for a tougher stance, especially on pursuing legal action. Despite the clear risks inherent in bringing a new Japanese government before an international tribunal on an argument that appears less than certain, there are still advocates for legal action at the cabinet level. CHANGE IN TOKYO UNLIKELY -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Dutton said that DFAT diplomats in Tokyo sounded out Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) members on their views on whaling prior to the IWC and think that the likely next group Qwhaling prior to the IWC and think that the likely next group of Japanese leaders has simply not concentrated on this issue as a potential irritant. DFAT Japan Desk Director Warren King echoed that view in a discussion with econoff on July ¶28. King said that although the DPJ may not have the strong ties to rural and small communities that have in part resulted in the current LDP policy, there is no evidence that any major shift is likely following the upcoming elections, and that heightened rhetoric for legal action will increase the risk of a further hardening of Japan's position. HOLLWAY WANTS TO CONFER WITH U.S. OFFICIALS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) ACTION REQUEST: The GOA's whaling envoy, Sandy Hollway, is in New Zealand July 30-August 3 discussing the CANBERRA 00000700 002 OF 002 GNZ convening of the October meetings in San Diego. Dutton said that Hollway would like to travel to the U.S. to consult with senior USG officials about the October meetings (and we presume to lobby for Australia's positions in the meetings). DFAT has targeted the time period August 19-25, September 1-4, or at the "brainstorming" session suggested by Medina on the margins of UNGA fisheries negotiations o/a September 19. Post requests feedback from OES/OA on whether such consultations are possible with Medina, NOAA Administrator Lubchenko, and CEQ Nancy Sutley or other designated officials and what dates would be best. Understanding that Medina has not yet been confirmed as the new IWC Commissioner, post requests an update on the status of senior USG officials who may attend the October meeting. ¶6. (C/NF) Although the GOA continues to warn about domestic pressure building toward legal action, recent discussions with major NGOs in Australia have turned up generally positive views of how the GOA has handled the issue. Econoff spoke with outgoing Greenpeace Asia Pacific director Steve Shallhorn on July 15. Shallhorn said that Greenpeace understood the difficulties faced in negotiating with Japan, and that Rudd had basically fulfilled in spirit, if not with result, his election pledge to up the ante on whaling. WWF Australia campaign director Rob Nicholl told econoff on July 16 that the GOA was in a bind of their own making by having promised more aggressive action during the 2007 election campaign. At the same time, more aggressive NGOs have created a false public view that the Japanese are meddling with Australian whales in Australian waters that ratchets up emotion over the issue. In Nicholl's view, Rudd could further elevate the issue bilaterally but has not, which has been seen as a sign that he is not serious. Nicholl said that the common view that a trade-off between ending southern ocean whaling and allowing coastal whaling was unacceptable to the NGO community isn't true, and that serious NGOs are willing to see that as part of a multi-step, lengthy process to end whaling eventually. Nicholl said that Japan has refused to negotiate with the GOA on whaling because they fear that domestic pressure will force the GOA to move the goalposts once an agreement is struck. TURNOVER ON WHALING AT DFAT, DEWHA -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In addition to Dutton, others in the GOA are also leaving the whaling portfolio. Assistant Secretary Andrew McNee is also departing. Seen as the most intelligent policy thinker in the Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, McNee's absence could weaken the interagency cooperation between foreign affairs and domestic environment policymakers. We have no word yet on who will replace McNee, but Dutton is clearly concerned that his departure leaves DEWHA weaker in terms of shaping policy. ¶8. (C/NF) Comment: Dutton's parting interview with econoff highlights the sense that nothing has changed. This is the third time in 18 months we have heard that Rudd and the cabinet have drawn a line in the sand, and that legal action against Japan is imminent absent substantive progress to reduce the Antarctic whale hunt. A likely election next year Qreduce the Antarctic whale hunt. A likely election next year does increase the pressure on Rudd and his cabinet to take action of some kind, but the importance of courting a new Japanese Government would give cover for further delay. End Comment. CLUNE