Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CANBERRA563
2009-06-16 07:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Canberra
how-toVZCZCXRO9526 PP RUEHPT DE RUEHBY #0563 1670709 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 160709Z JUN 09 FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1635 INFO RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 6426 RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 4690 RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 4658
UNCLAS CANBERRA 000563
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AS PGOV
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CLOSES GAP ON RUDD
REF: CANBERRA 560
UNCLAS CANBERRA 000563
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AS PGOV
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CLOSES GAP ON RUDD
REF: CANBERRA 560
1. (U) SUMMARY: Following yesterday's announcement by Peter
Costello (reftel),the good news continues for Opposition
Leader Malcolm Turnbull. The bi-weekly Newspoll shows the
Coalition in its strongest position since Kevin Rudd became
Prime Minister in December 2007. The ALP's lead over the
Coalition has fallen to 53-47 (in two party preferred terms),
its lead on the primary vote has fallen to 41-40 and
Turnbull's approval rating has improved. Since the last
Newspoll, there was a Ministerial reshuffle triggered by the
resignation of Joel Fitzgibbon as Defense Minister. END
SUMMARY.
GAP CLOSES
2. (U) The ALP's formidable lead on two party preferred terms
has fallen from 55-45 two weeks ago to 53-47, and its lead on
the primary vote has fallen from 43-38 to 41-40. These are
the Opposition's best results since Rudd became Prime
Minister in December 2007. Previously, the Opposition's best
results were 54/46 on the two party preferred and 39 on the
primary vote. It is the Rudd government's equal worst primary
vote, and its slimmest primary vote lead. At the 2007
election, the two party preferred vote was 52.7-47.3 and the
primary vote was 43.3-42.1.
APPROVAL FOR TURNBULL RISES
3. (U) Turnbull's net approval rose to plus seven, continuing
an improvement since it fell into negative territory in
April. However, Rudd's big lead as preferred Prime Minister
was virtually unchanged at 57/25, and his net approval rating
rose four points to plus 27.
GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR TURNBULL
4. (SBU) COMMENT: The polls, Fitzgibbon's resignation;
growing media resentment of Rudd's "spin"; the debate over
government debt; union anger at Rudd; and Costello's
announcement have combined to provide Turnbull with a renewed
glimmer of hope. The Newspoll only puts the Coalition where
it was when it lost the 2007 election, but Turnbull has at
last seen some movement in his direction. The question is
how durable this uptick in the Opposition's popularity will
be. END COMMENT.
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AS PGOV
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CLOSES GAP ON RUDD
REF: CANBERRA 560
1. (U) SUMMARY: Following yesterday's announcement by Peter
Costello (reftel),the good news continues for Opposition
Leader Malcolm Turnbull. The bi-weekly Newspoll shows the
Coalition in its strongest position since Kevin Rudd became
Prime Minister in December 2007. The ALP's lead over the
Coalition has fallen to 53-47 (in two party preferred terms),
its lead on the primary vote has fallen to 41-40 and
Turnbull's approval rating has improved. Since the last
Newspoll, there was a Ministerial reshuffle triggered by the
resignation of Joel Fitzgibbon as Defense Minister. END
SUMMARY.
GAP CLOSES
2. (U) The ALP's formidable lead on two party preferred terms
has fallen from 55-45 two weeks ago to 53-47, and its lead on
the primary vote has fallen from 43-38 to 41-40. These are
the Opposition's best results since Rudd became Prime
Minister in December 2007. Previously, the Opposition's best
results were 54/46 on the two party preferred and 39 on the
primary vote. It is the Rudd government's equal worst primary
vote, and its slimmest primary vote lead. At the 2007
election, the two party preferred vote was 52.7-47.3 and the
primary vote was 43.3-42.1.
APPROVAL FOR TURNBULL RISES
3. (U) Turnbull's net approval rose to plus seven, continuing
an improvement since it fell into negative territory in
April. However, Rudd's big lead as preferred Prime Minister
was virtually unchanged at 57/25, and his net approval rating
rose four points to plus 27.
GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR TURNBULL
4. (SBU) COMMENT: The polls, Fitzgibbon's resignation;
growing media resentment of Rudd's "spin"; the debate over
government debt; union anger at Rudd; and Costello's
announcement have combined to provide Turnbull with a renewed
glimmer of hope. The Newspoll only puts the Coalition where
it was when it lost the 2007 election, but Turnbull has at
last seen some movement in his direction. The question is
how durable this uptick in the Opposition's popularity will
be. END COMMENT.