BUDGET: BIG DEFICIT, RECOVERY BEGINNING IN 2010

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 000452 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV AS SUBJECT: BUDGET: BIG DEFICIT, RECOVERY BEGINNING IN 2010 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After a decade of almost continuous budget surpluses, the 2009-10 budget announced May 12 projects a deficit of A$$58 billion or 4.9 percent of GDP, the largest in the postwar period. The budget forecasts that unemployment will peak at 8.5 percent in 2010-11, economic recovery will begin in 2010-11, and the budget will return to surplus in 2015-16. With government revenue declining significantly, the government will cut some "middle class welfare" benefits from the previous government. However, the budget continues the Rudd Government's recent approach of stimulating the economy and protecting jobs. Infrastructure funding will be boosted. Tax cuts promised during the 2007 election will be made, and pension benefits for the elderly will increase. A taxpayer-funded paid maternity leave scheme will be introduced in January 2011. While this was forecast by the Government as a "tough" budget, it targeted only wealthier taxpayers who had benefited under the Howard Government. Most pundits see the budget's economic growth forecasts as optimistic, but Sydney bankers actually believe it is too pessimistic. END SUMMARY. KEY INDICATORS ¶2. (SBU) The Rudd Government's second budget, unveiled May 12, projects a A$57.6 billion deficit (US$43 billion at today's exchange rate of A$1 = US$.77) next financial year (July 1-June 30) and up to A$200 billion of Federal debt accrued in the next four years. Treasurer Wayne Swan stressed that the deficit is primarily the result of the "brutal" global recession, with forecast A$210 billion drop in taxation revenue until 2013-14. ¶3. (SBU) The GOA's stated overall strategy is to maintain growth and employment through stimulus packages and an expansionary budget, hoping that world growth will resume relatively quickly, allowing tax revenue to recover. A slower than forecast recovery could markedly increase the deficits and necessitate much sharper spending cuts or greater deficits down the road. Swan specifically rejected the idea that Treasury forecasts were less reliable that those of the IMF, noting at his National Press Club address today that in mid-2008 the IMF was revising its predictions for growth in 2008 upwards, and then had to make five downward revisions. Treasury's prediction of a A$22 billion surplus last May was well off the mark due to the global financial crisis that began less than three months into Australia's fiscal year. AUSTRALIA'S DEBT INCREASES BUT AAA RATING SECURE ¶4. (U) Australian Commonwealth (federal) debt is forecast at 0.4% of GDP for 2008-09. It is predicted to peak at 13.6% of GDP in 2012-13 before dropping to 3.7% in 2020. The GOA plans to sell a record A$60 billion in bonds in the upcoming financial year. There will be about A$133 billion of Australian Government bonds outstanding as of June 30, 2010. These debt figures, high by recent Australian standards, are low by OECD standards, with most member countries forecast to have debt levels of 80% of GDP by 2014. Two major credit agencies, Standard and Poor's and Fitch Ratings, said the budget did not threaten Australia's AAA rating because the country's finances remain sound. GROWTH, UNEMPLOYMENT AND DEFICIT PROJECTIONS ¶5. (U) The budget projects: - Economic growth of -0.5 percent for 2009-10, 2.25 in 2010-11, 4.5 percent in 2011-12, and 4.5 percent in 2012-13; Q2010-11, 4.5 percent in 2011-12, and 4.5 percent in 2012-13; - Inflation at 1.75 percent for 2009-10; - Unemployment at 8.25 percent in 2009-10, 8.5 percent in 2010-11, and 7.5 percent in 2011-12 (the GOA says unemployment would have reached 10 percent if it had not taken the stimulus measures it did in October 2008 and February 2009); - Government revenue revised down by A$210 billion over the next four years; - A budget deficit of A$32 billion in 2008-09, A$58 billion in 2009-10 (4.9 percent of GDP),A$57 billion in 2010-11, A$45 billion in 2011-12, A$28 billion in 2012-13; and returning to surplus in 2015-16; and CANBERRA 00000452 002 OF 003 - Net government debt peaking at A$188 billion in 2012-13, around 14 percent of GDP. THE GOOD NEWS ¶6. (U) The centerpiece of the budget is A$22 billion in "nation building" infrastructure spending for road, rail, port, university, hospital, clean energy and broadband projects across the nation. The Rudd Government will deliver the tax cuts the Australian Labor Party (ALP) promised at the 2007 election. All 3.3 million of Australia's elderly, disabled, their care-givers, widowed pensioners, and veterans receiving income support will receive a raise of up to 10% (A$32.49 a week for singles) at a cost of A$14.2 billion over four years. A taxpayer-funded paid parental leave scheme, a first for Australia, will be introduced in January 2011. The boost to the first home buyers grant, part of the government's first stimulus package, will be extended for another six months. Business will receive further tax breaks on the purchase of equipment. CLIMATE CHANGE, SCIENCE AND ENERGY POLICY INITIATIVES ¶7. (U) Swan announced A$4.5 billion will be invested in a Clean Energy Initiative to support low-emission technologies and create green jobs. Two to four industrial-sized coal-fired power plants will be built using cleaner technologies including Carbon Capture and Storage. Four large solar power plants will also be built, at a cost of A$1.5 billion over six years (and generating 1000 megawatts of electricity). The budget also increases science, research, and development funding by A$3.1 billion over the next four years, an increase of over 25 percent compared to the 2007-08 fiscal year. MIDDLE CLASS BENEFITS CUT, PENSION AGE LIFTED ¶8. (U) The 30 percent taxpayer-funded private health insurance rebate (a benefit for those who can afford private health insurance) will be means-tested from July 1 2010 and phased out for singles earning over A$120,000 a year and families over A$240,000. The maximum contribution into retirement schemes at a reduced tax rate will be slashed. The government's co-contribution retirement scheme, which tops up contributions from low and middle-income earners, will be less generous. Welfare payments to families will rise more slowly, and the thresholds for phasing out family welfare payments will be frozen for three years. Some tax loopholes for the wealthy will be closed. From 2017, the qualifying age for the aged pension will be progressively increased from 65 to 67. COMMENT: NOT THAT "TOUGH" ¶9. (SBU) The government talked up a "tough" budget before its release, as did Treasurer Swan during his speech to Parliament. But it was not that tough. The reaction of key groups, such as the Chamber of Commerce and the Australian Council of Trade Unions, was generally positive. It is a budget that will appeal to Labor "true believers:" funding public works, reducing subsidies for private health insurance, hitting high-income earners, boosting pensions (although not for the unemployed and single parents) and providing taxpayer funded maternity leave. Several of the infrastructure projects are located in key parliamentary seats. ¶10. (SBU) The Opposition will continue to contrast the economic numbers Rudd inherited with those he presides over, and claim that the cuts to middle class benefits are a result of Labor's "reckless" economic stimulus spending. Opposition Qof Labor's "reckless" economic stimulus spending. Opposition Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey maintains the Government has lost control of the nation's finances. ¶11. (SBU) The Australian Industry Group and others have warned that the projected future economic growth rates are too optimistic, and many that last year criticized the GOA for "talking down" the economy (the fact that the GOA turned out to be correct to fear a slowdown does not seem to matter) now accuse them of being too optimistic. But polls indicate that voters believe the GOA claims that it has done a good job in the context of the "worst global recession in 75 years." On the other hand, some Sydney bankers tell us that they think the earlier years numbers are too pessimistic; they see growth in FY2009-10 of 0.7 percent rather than falling back 0.5 percent, and speculate that the GOA is CANBERRA 00000452 003 OF 003 setting itself up for an upside surprise. ¶12. (SBU) If unemployment exceeds expectations - and the GOA has been open in saying they expect it to hit 8.5 percent - despite deficit spending and stimulus plans, it could dent the Government's popularity. There are also political challenges for the Opposition. If it takes the side of the budget "losers" and opposes some of the spending cuts, it will be accused of undermining its position on reducing debt. On the other hand, by supporting the cuts it may be viewed as tacitly accepting Treasurer Swan's assertion that the Howard government spent "as if the mining boom was never going to end." Furthermore, by continuing to criticize the extent of government spending, the Opposition opens itself up to a fear campaign about cuts to essential services and job losses. If the Liberal/National Coalition were in power today and faced these economic conditions, it too would run a significant deficit, as Hockey admitted on radio this morning. We accept Swan's assertions that to slash spending and/or raise taxes during the economic downturn would be irresponsible. It would also be politically foolish, since it would likely contribute to a deeper and longer economic downturn in Australia. End comment. CLUNE