Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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09CANBERRA398 | 2009-04-21 06:19:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Canberra |
1. (SBU) Summary: Border protection is dominating the political debate this week as investigations into last Thursday's boat explosion continue (Ref A). The Opposition maintains there is a link between the government's immigration policies and the increased flow of asylum seekers, while the government continues to attribute this to "push factors" in war-torn countries such as Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. The Opposition has called for the government to consider re-introducing Temporary Protection Visas, and is inferring the government is covering up the details of the explosion. The government will not speculate on the cause of the explosion until investigations are completed. Australia and Indonesia have agreed to closer co-operation in order to stop the flow of boat people to Australia. As was the case under the previous government, this issue has become a part of the "culture war" between Left and Right political commentators and newspapers. So far, this issue has not affected the government's continuing strong position in the polls. End summary. CLAIMS EXPLOSION WAS AN ACCIDENT 2. (U) Shortly after early reports of the incident, Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett claimed that the asylum seekers had deliberately doused their boat with gasoline which had either exploded accidentally, or had been deliberately lit. The claim could not be confirmed and Australia's Border Protection Commander, Rear Admiral Allan du Toit declined to comment on the Premier's claim, saying that it was too early to determine the cause of the explosion, adding that Australian military personnel were on board the vessel at the time of the accident. Australian Navy personnel had intercepted and boarded the boat April 15 in the Indian Ocean, and was under escort to Christmas Island, a remote Australian territory used for government processing of refugee applicants. Western Australian police believed that the explosion may have originated in the engine room. Federal Home Affairs Minister Bob Debus questioned the source of Premier Barnett's information commenting that it was too early to say whether the explosion was accidental or deliberate. 3. (U) The death toll from the explosion has risen to five with two missing asylum seekers now presumed dead. Around 40 survivors are in hospitals in Perth, Brisbane and Darwin. Most are recovering, but four are in induced comas and some have developed serious blood infections. Six victims being treated in Perth are expected to be released from hospital this week into the care of immigration officials. The government will not speculate on the cause of the explosion until an inquiry, headed by the Northern Territory police, is completed. This may take months. However, some media outlets reported that "senior government sources" confirmed asylum seekers doused the deck of the boat with petrol - a threat to force the Navy to bring them to Australia - but that the explosion was an accident. The Murdoch press reported that the government received intelligence briefings from the Australian Federal Police warning that its border protection laws were encouraging people smuggling. Defence has released a 25 second video showing the boat burning, and six persons waiting to be rescued by a crew in a rubber dinghy. The Northern Territory Coroner found the provisional cause of death for three asylum seekers was drowning. THE POLITICS 4. (U) On April 19, Prime Minister Rudd spoke to Indonesian Q4. (U) On April 19, Prime Minister Rudd spoke to Indonesian president Yudhoyono about the flow of asylum seekers. According to Rudd's office, they agreed that "push factors" (such as conflicts in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and global recession) was the main cause behind increased flow of asylum seekers; and that Yudhoyono was willing to strengthen cooperation between Indonesian and Australian authorities. Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull maintains that "there is no question that our immigration laws are more receptive and more accommodating for people who arrive by boat". He said Temporary Protection Visas were an effective deterrent under the Howard government, and called on the Rudd government to consider re-introducing them. Turnbull says the government has opened itself to accusations of a "cover up" by not releasing information about the explosion, and claims the "government has known the facts for some time". Immigration Minister Senator Chris Evans said: "Australians thought it had gone too far under John Howard, we were punishing and vilifying refugees, we've ended that." CANBERRA 00000398 002 OF 002 Referring to the Howard government's "children overboard affair" in 2001, the government said it was prudent to wait for the outcome of the investigation before speculating on the cause of the explosion. The Murdoch tabloids - which appeal to Rudd's "working families" in the outer suburbs - have called for stronger border protection policies, while the more left-leaning Fairfax papers - argue against any return to Howard government policies. NO SHIFT IN POLLS 5. (U) A Newspoll conducted 17-19 April and published on April 21 showed the Rudd government maintaining its 58/42 lead over the Opposition; virtually no change to Rudd's high approval rating; and virtually no change to Rudd's massive lead over Turnbull as preferred Prime Minister. Thirty-seven percent believed the government was doing a good job managing asylum seekers with 40 percent taking the opposite view. Fifty-seven percent believed tighter immigration laws would make no difference to the number of asylum seekers seeking to enter Australia. LIFELINE FOR DESPERATE TURNBULL 6. (SBU) Coment: This was an issue that worked for Howard in 2001. It drove a wedge between the ALP's "working families" and its middle-class Left constituencies. However, working against Turnbull is that national security as a major issue has declined in relation to economic concerns, and the ALP has the resources of government to demonstrate it is working to address the problem. Turnbull, a social Liberal, doesn't appear comfortable pursuing this issue, but is way behind in the polls and needs an issue to try to erode Rudd's formidable poll numbers. End Comment. |