POLL BOOST FOR RUDD DESPITE FITZGIBBON CONTROVERSY

UNCLAS CANBERRA 000352

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: POLL BOOST FOR RUDD DESPITE FITZGIBBON CONTROVERSY

REF: A) CANBERRA 335 B) CANBERRA 349


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Rudd Government's lead in the latest
Newspoll has increased, despite controversy over his Defense
Minister's relationship with a Chinese-born business woman,
Opposition accusations that Rudd is a "roving ambassador for
China," and press reports that Rudd verbally abused a flight
attendant. For the first time, Opposition Leader Malcolm
Turnbull's satisfaction rating has moved into negative
territory, putting further pressure on him as speculation
builds about the intentions of former Treasurer Peter
Costello. The poll suggests that the economy is the main
issue in voters' minds, and that they back Rudd's handling of
it, including his participation at the G20 Summit. END
SUMMARY.

RECENT CONTROVERSIES


2. (U) Since the previous Newspoll two weeks ago, Defense
Minister Joel Fitzgibbon has been under pressure due to the
"Helen Liu affair" (ref A). This generated wider debate
about the Rudd Government's relationship with China, with the
Opposition claiming the "Sinophile" Rudd was a "roving
Ambassador for China." (ref B). On April 3, the
Murdoch-owned tabloids in Sydney and Melbourne, the
largest-selling newspapers in Australia, carried front page
stories that Rudd had reduced a flight attendant on his RAAF
VIP flight to tears because he didn't get his "special" meal.
Rudd's office had initially denied the story, but once it
became public Rudd apologized, conceding that "I'm not
perfect."

BUT RUDD'S POPULARITY INCREASES


3. (U) The Newspoll, conducted April 3-5, has the Australian
Labor Party (ALP) increasing its lead over the
Liberal-National Party Coalition to 58-42, from 56-44 two
weeks ago. Rudd's satisfaction rating rose five points to 68
percent, and his lead as preferred Prime Minister jumped four
points to 67-18. For the first time, Turnbull's
satisfaction-dissatisfaction rating has moved into negative
territory (39-42). The Coalition is now in a worse position
in the polls than it was in September, when Turnbull took
over. Interpreting the numbers, the chief executive of
Newspoll said "it is very difficult for an Opposition leader
to break through, given Mr. Rudd is enjoying people rallying
behind him in a crisis, the impact of the stimulus package
payments and the profile he has had in recent days on the
world stage."

COSTELLO LOOKING BETTER


4. (SBU) COMMENT: The Coalition is putting a brave face on
the Newspoll, largely attributing it to Rudd's stimulus
package. It has fired many bullets during the past fortnight
- and hit nothing. Liberal Party MPs in marginal seats will
be worried and this will only increase the attractiveness of
former treasurer Peter Costello as a leadership option. The
middle class families in Australia who decide elections,
fearful of being thrown out of work, are focused almost
exclusively on the economy and they believe Rudd is doing the
best he can. An ALP official told us today that their tactic
has been to remind the public that the financial crisis
started in the United States, and the Government is reacting
the best it can.

RICHE