POLL BOOST FOR RUDD DESPITE FITZGIBBON CONTROVERSY

UNCLAS CANBERRA 000352 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV AS SUBJECT: POLL BOOST FOR RUDD DESPITE FITZGIBBON CONTROVERSY REF: A) CANBERRA 335 B) CANBERRA 349 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Rudd Government's lead in the latest Newspoll has increased, despite controversy over his Defense Minister's relationship with a Chinese-born business woman, Opposition accusations that Rudd is a "roving ambassador for China," and press reports that Rudd verbally abused a flight attendant. For the first time, Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's satisfaction rating has moved into negative territory, putting further pressure on him as speculation builds about the intentions of former Treasurer Peter Costello. The poll suggests that the economy is the main issue in voters' minds, and that they back Rudd's handling of it, including his participation at the G20 Summit. END SUMMARY. RECENT CONTROVERSIES ¶2. (U) Since the previous Newspoll two weeks ago, Defense Minister Joel Fitzgibbon has been under pressure due to the "Helen Liu affair" (ref A). This generated wider debate about the Rudd Government's relationship with China, with the Opposition claiming the "Sinophile" Rudd was a "roving Ambassador for China." (ref B). On April 3, the Murdoch-owned tabloids in Sydney and Melbourne, the largest-selling newspapers in Australia, carried front page stories that Rudd had reduced a flight attendant on his RAAF VIP flight to tears because he didn't get his "special" meal. Rudd's office had initially denied the story, but once it became public Rudd apologized, conceding that "I'm not perfect." BUT RUDD'S POPULARITY INCREASES ¶3. (U) The Newspoll, conducted April 3-5, has the Australian Labor Party (ALP) increasing its lead over the Liberal-National Party Coalition to 58-42, from 56-44 two weeks ago. Rudd's satisfaction rating rose five points to 68 percent, and his lead as preferred Prime Minister jumped four points to 67-18. For the first time, Turnbull's satisfaction-dissatisfaction rating has moved into negative territory (39-42). The Coalition is now in a worse position in the polls than it was in September, when Turnbull took over. Interpreting the numbers, the chief executive of Newspoll said "it is very difficult for an Opposition leader to break through, given Mr. Rudd is enjoying people rallying behind him in a crisis, the impact of the stimulus package payments and the profile he has had in recent days on the world stage." COSTELLO LOOKING BETTER ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: The Coalition is putting a brave face on the Newspoll, largely attributing it to Rudd's stimulus package. It has fired many bullets during the past fortnight - and hit nothing. Liberal Party MPs in marginal seats will be worried and this will only increase the attractiveness of former treasurer Peter Costello as a leadership option. The middle class families in Australia who decide elections, fearful of being thrown out of work, are focused almost exclusively on the economy and they believe Rudd is doing the best he can. An ALP official told us today that their tactic has been to remind the public that the financial crisis started in the United States, and the Government is reacting the best it can. RICHE