Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09CANBERRA251
2009-03-13 07:05:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Canberra
Cable title:
AUSTRALIA'S UNEMPLOYMENT RISING FAST
how-toVZCZCXRO8382 PP RUEHPB RUEHPT DE RUEHBY #0251 0720705 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 130705Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1200 INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9403 RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 5401 RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2302 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1539 RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1978 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 9745 RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 1688 RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA 1524 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3454 RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 5678 RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE 6136 RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH 4399 RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 4350 RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS CANBERRA 000251
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/EP, EAP/ANP AND EEB
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ELAB PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA'S UNEMPLOYMENT RISING FAST
UNCLAS CANBERRA 000251
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/EP, EAP/ANP AND EEB
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ELAB PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA'S UNEMPLOYMENT RISING FAST
¶1. (SBU) Australia's unemployment rate rose to 5.2%
(seasonally adjusted) in February from 4.8% in January and
4.2% in December. This increase has been faster than
expected by most observers, while confirming expectations
that the global economic crisis is starting to hit Australia.
Unemployment has increased significantly in the past 12
months from a record low 3.9% in February 2008, ending
several years of "full employment," which our Australian
contacts believe to be anytime unemployment is below
4.5-4.6%. The overall number of employed Australians
increased by about 1800, but full-time employment dropped by
approximately 53,800. Contacts caution that February data is
traditionally the must suspect because that is when the most
people enter the labor force at the end of the Australian
summer holidays in December and January.
Chart:
2007 Unemployment Labor Force
Rate (%) Participation Rate (%)
February 3.9 65.3
March 4.1 65.4
April 4.2 65.6
May 4.3 65.4
June 4.3 65.4
July 4.3 65.5
August 4.1 65.3
September 4.3 65.3
October 4.4 65.4
November 4.5 65.3
December 4.5 65.2
2008
January 4.8 65.3
February 5.2 65.5
¶2. (SBU) Almost all of our contacts believe that
unemployment will climb significantly in the coming six
months, with the Treasury Department's official estimate that
the unemployment rate will reach 7.0% by the end of 2009.
Some private sector contacts believe the number could reach
as high as 9.0% by early 2010. Many contacts also expect a
shift from full-time to part-time work, which has a
significant impact on average incomes and GDP. The increase
in unemployment strengthens the Government's argument that
the global economic crisis is a serious threat to Australia
that requires agressive action. However, it strengthens the
Opposition arguments that the Government's measures are
poorly designed and not effective in preserving jobs.
CLUNE