AS POLICE PLAN THEIR "SURGE" IN AFGHANISTAN, UNION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001119

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS AS AF
SUBJECT: AS POLICE PLAN THEIR "SURGE" IN AFGHANISTAN, UNION
TAKES AIM AT RUDD

REF: CANBERRA 1103

CANBERRA 00001119 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Acting Pol/Econ Conselor Forest Yang for reasons 1.4(b)(
d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C/NF) Summary: The Australian Federal Police (AFP)
union has been loudly critical of Prime Minister Rudd,s
plans to increase Australia,s police presence in
Afghanistan, and has vowed to fight any "significant"
expansion of the AFP commitment. Officials predicted that
between 10 and 20 new officers will be assigned and the AFP's
focus will shift training Afghan police. A final decision on
the size of the police effort is expected in February. While
some AFP officials are dismissive of the union's saber
rattling, Rudd will be sensitive to the public criticism. A
greater AFP role in Afghanistan is inevitable, but the
government may limit the size of the increase to avoid a
public confrontation with the union. END SUMMARY.

10 to 20 Additional Officers to Afghanistan
--------------


2. (C/NF) During a recent visit to Washington, Prime
Minister Kevin Rudd announced that Australia would expand the
Australian Federal Police (AFP) effort in Afghanistan as part
of a broader civilian surge. The announcement came as Rudd
reaffirmed that he does not plan to increase the Australian
military commitment. Planning of the civilian effort has
gone slower than expected, but Special Envoy for Afghanistan
and Pakistan Ric Smith told us that he expects it will
include between 10 and 20 more AFP officers (reftel). The
plan is being worked out at the Cabinet level and will likely
be finalized in February.


3. (C/NF) The AFP plans to focus more on police training in
Oruzgan province and shut down its counternarcotics programs.
There are currently 22 AFP officers serving in Afghanistan.
Ten of these officers are training Afghan police in Oruzgan
province, with the rest engaged in broader counternarcotics
efforts. National Manager of the AFP's International
Deployment Group Frank Prendergast, who overseas deployments
to Afghanistan, said Rudd has asked that the AFP focus more
on Oruzgan, where the bulk of the Australian military forces
in Afghanistan are deployed. Prendergast says this will mean
closing down the AFP's counternarcotics program and ramping
up police training efforts in Oruzgan.


4. (C/NF) Officials are skeptical of how successful a police
training program in Afghanistan will be. Smith questioned
what AFP trainers would be able to accomplish given the
"train wreck" that they had been given to work with in the
Afghan National Police. Even Prendergast, who was generally
optimistic about AFP efforts in Afghanistan, noted that the
odds were stacked against success. Current training programs
are hampered by illiteracy, corruption, drug addiction and
insurgent penetration within the pool of trainees.
Prendergast also said that for the time being the government
has ruled out running any AFP programs "outside the wire" due
to security concerns. This places major limits on what the
AFP can be expected to accomplish. He believes that a
successful police training program will take 20 years to be
effective in Afghanistan.

Police Union Will Fight "Significant" Expansion
-------------- --

Q

5. (C/NF) Rudd's announcement has drawn harsh public
criticism from the Australian Federal Police Association
(AFPA),the AFP's union. AFPA CEO Jim Torr criticized Rudd
for playing politics with the AFP in a statement that was
widely reported in the media. He believed that Rudd's pledge
to expand the AFP presence as a convenient alternative to
sending more military forces, which Rudd has publically ruled
out. Approximately 10 to 15 percent of AFP officers are
currently deployed overseas in various capacities. The AFPA
asserts that this is approaching the point where domestic
policing duties will begin to suffer unless new officers,
promised by the Rudd government prior to coming to power, are
hired. Torr also said that security and training for AFP
officers deployed to Afghanistan has been inadequate.

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6. (C/NF) The AFPA is prepared to fight any "significant"
increase in AFP personnel in Afghanistan, though Torr
declined to quantify what he would consider significant. If
the government's plan involves an unacceptable increase, the
AFPA will "dig in its heels." At the extreme end, the AFPA
would order its members to boycott Afghan missions, which are
currently assigned on a volunteer basis. Torr claims that
since making his public comments he has received universal
support from the union's membership. He is furious that they
have yet to be consulted by the government on the proposed
Afghan deployments, but indicated that he would be willing to
seek out a compromise position with the government.

AFP Brass Dismissive
--------------


7. (C/NF) A clearly irritated Prendergast dismissed Torr's
statements as "rubbish," believing it was simply an effort to
draw attention to the union. He brushed aside claims that
there was any mass discontent within the AFP, noting that
there has never been a lack of volunteers to serve in
Afghanistan. Prendergast also rejected worries that
international deployments were affecting the ADF's domestic
responsibilities. He did not have any plans to consult with
the AFPA prior to the rollout of the additional Afghan
deployments, but acknowledged that some within to government
were concerned about being criticized by the police union.


8. (C/NF) COMMENT: The government was caught off guard by
the AFPA's strong reaction to what was thought to be a less
controversial alternative to troop increases. While a
boycott of Afghanistan assignments is highly unlikely,
criticism from the police union will not sit well with Rudd,
who is very sensitive to public opinion about the Australian
effort in Afghanistan. The AFP surge in Afghanistan will
move forward, but there will be pressure to reach some kind
of accommodation with the AFPA if only to avoid another round
of negative media coverage. END COMMENT.

CLUNE