AUSTRALIA RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001089 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH FJ AS SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA'S ASSERTIVENESS, REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE PROPOSALS AND BILATERAL ISSUES Classified By: Political/Economic Counselor Edgard Kagan, for reasons 1 .4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Australia's still evolving ideas for an Asia Pacific regional organization that can help manage China's rise, complaints about PRC assertiveness and planning for the U.S.-Australia Ministerial (AUSMIN) dominated a meeting between EAP Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Joe Donovan and Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) Deputy Secretary Ric Wells on the margins of the Asia Pacific community (APc) conference in Sydney on December 4. DFAT officials also reiterated their interest in a dialogue with the United States on Asia, including Southeast Asia, and urged the United States to use all possible leverage to show Fijian dictator Frank Bainimarama that his rule is not sustainable. End Summary. The APc and Regional Architecture -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Wells told Donovan Australia has been thinking deeply about how to make the Asia Pacific community (APc) idea work, but as of yet has no clear answers. Prime Minister Rudd is very focused on moving quickly to embed the United States in regional structures, he said, while wryly noting that the PM has seized on options provided by DFAT faster than they had expected. He stressed that any worthwhile APc would have to be trans-Pacific, would need a coherent leaders meeting and would have to offer practical mechanisms for cooperation. Australia understands there is little appetite for a new regional body, and Wells admitted they have do not have any firm ideas about how to utilize the existing regional organizations. The Australians are less inclined towards using the East Asia Summit or the ASEAN Regional Forum because of ASEAN domination in those venues. Wells also noted the idea of having a meeting of an Asia Pacific Subgroup of the G20, saying that while this has advantages, it also would draw strong opposition from ASEAN members other than Indonesia. Donovan mentioned Korean opposition to a meeting of a G20 Asia Subgroup because of concerns that it would divert the G20's global focus. ¶3. (C/NF) Wells emphasized the importance Australia places on U.S. thinking on the regional architecture issue. The Australians are very eager to engage with U.S. thinkers. He noted that Assistant Secretary Campbell's discussions with PM Rudd and FM Smith during his August visit had been very useful. Wells responded very favorably to the possibility of a meeting with Policy Planning Director Anne-Marie Slaughter, if feasible on her next trip to the region. ¶4. (C/NF) DFAT First Assistant Secretary for North Asia Graham Fletcher noted that Chinese public and private diplomacy has become more assertive with Australia over the last year. This had led to considerable tension in the relationship as Beijing attempted to intimidate Australia through public criticism, provocative actions such as the June 2009 arrest of Australian Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu and the time-worn tactic of canceling high-level visits. Australia is particularly concerned at the PRC's increasingly aggressive domestic lobbying, including pulling out the stops to pressure against issuing a visa for Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer and privately warning a major Australian bank that QKadeer and privately warning a major Australian bank that sponsors the National Press Club to use its influence to block a Kadeer speech there in August. This followed the 2008 mobilization of Chinese students to support the Olympic torch run through Canberra and pressuring Qantas to not show a movie the PRC deemed inappropriate on flights to China during the 2008 Olympics. ¶5. (C/NF) Fletcher said Australia was reasonably satisfied by Chinese embarrassment over the media frenzy surrounding the Kadeer visa and Hu arrest. Australia stuck to its guns while avoiding publicizing the dispute, leading China to reverse course and allow several high level visits in the last quarter of 2009. "We've learned we can make them blink," Fletcher stated but acknowledged it was only round one. He also noted that Australia remains concerned that cracking down too hard on Chinese lobbying would simply drive it underground. ¶6. (C/NF) Circling back to regional architecture, Fletcher CANBERRA 00001089 002 OF 002 described the APc as one possible means to manage China's rise. Wells added that Australia hopes the APc would also "head off" any ASEAN-North Asia arrangements. He said Australia likes the stability the U.S. presence in the region adds and concluded flatly, saying Australia wants to avoid the key building block of Asian architecture being ASEAN plus China. AUSMIN Preparations -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Noting ongoing planning for the AUSMIN, Wells said January 16 is not a good date for FM Smith as he will be in Tokyo for a Forum for East Asian-Latin American Cooperation meeting. He also restated Australia's opposition to a U.S./Australia/New Zealand trilateral meeting on the margins of AUSMIN as suggested earlier this year by Assistant Secretary Campbell. Stressing Australia's support for improving trilateral coordination with New Zealand, Wells said the GOA sees the benefits of a meeting but does not want it to be linked to AUSMIN. The meeting could be held sometime early next year, after AUSMIN, Wells offered. Proposed Asia Dialogue -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) Australia is eager to hold the U.S.-proposed bilateral dialogue on Asia but wants the agenda to include Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, as well as North Asia. In response to a request for dates from Donovan, Wells suggested the first two to three months of 2010, but after the January AUSMIN meeting. Fiji -------------- ¶9. (C/NF) Turning to Fiji, Wells acknowledged the relative magnitude of the island nation in the global context but stressed the importance Australia places on democracy in the South Pacific. He encouraged the United States to use all possible leverage to show Fijian dictator Frank Bainimarama that his rule is not sustainable. Wells concluded by reiterating Australian opposition to the use of Fijian armed forces in UN peacekeeping operations (PKO). He acknowledged the point that Fiji deploys a significant number of comparatively capable peacekeepers and that replacing these troops would not be easy. Wells said Australia understands U.S. concerns about the consequences of withdrawing these peacekeepers without having replacements available, but argued that the United States should also focus on the long term consequences if Fiji continues to spiral downward. Blocking participation in PKOs would send a strong signal to the dictator's key powerbase. Wells said that Australian Ministers would bring up Fiji at AUSMIN. ¶10. (U) PDAS Donovan cleared this message. BLEICH