AUSTRALIA SEARCHES FOR ASYLUM SEEKER SOLUTION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001006 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2019 TAGS: ECON ELAB PREF PREL SMIG AS SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA SEARCHES FOR ASYLUM SEEKER SOLUTION REF: A. A. CANBERRA 255 ¶B. B. CANBERRA 807 ¶C. C. CANBERRA 934 Classified By: Political/Economic Counselor Edgard D. Kagan. Reasons 1 .4 (b, d) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: Australia has asked Sri Lanka to do more to stop the flood of Tamil asylum seekers, as the standoff with 78 of them on board an Australian Customs vessel approaches resolution. The government is offering faster resettlement if they agree to disembark in Indonesia, and it appears that 20 of them are willing to take the offer. The Australian government is grateful for intelligence assistance provided by the United States to track people smugglers. Prime Minister Rudd has been hit in the opinion polls and annoyed some in his party with his performance on the border protection issue. The Opposition is accusing him of capitulating to the 78 Tamils. End Summary. Seeking Sri Lanka's help -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Australia and Sri Lanka signed November 9 a Memorandum of Understanding pledging increased cooperation on combating people smuggling; strengthening extradition processes; reconstruction and rehabilitation of Sri Lanka's Northern and Eastern Provinces; and undertaking a public information campaign to alert Sri Lankan citizens to the dangers of maritime people smuggling. Grateful for U.S. assistance -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) The First Assistant Secretary for Homeland and Border Security at the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet told us November 10 that the Australian government is grateful for intelligence assistance provided by the United States to track people smugglers. He added that Australian diplomats are developing a regional maritime response (with Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Malaysia) to destroy people smugglers' business models, and that a bilateral agreement with Indonesia is being negotiated. Stand-off approaches resolution -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Meanwhile, the standoff involving an Australian Customs vessel, Indonesia and 78 Tamil asylum seekers is into its fourth week. Prime Minister Rudd is adamant they will not be processed in Australia; and that he expects the agreement between Australia and Indonesia to be honored. Australian officials have offered to expedite resettlement, assist with refugee applications and arrange English language classes if they disembark in Indonesia. So far, it appears 20 have taken this up. The government concedes a large proportion of the 78 will end up in Australia. Opposition MPs are accusing the government of capitulating and sending the wrong signal to people smugglers. Rudd is expected to meet President Yudhoyono on the sidelines of APEC this weekend. Opposition smells blood -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) A key Liberal party strategist told us the issue was "fantastic" and "the more boats that come the better" but his research indicated only a "slight trend" towards the Coalition, contrary to a local media poll which showed a big cut to the Labor party's lead. He said the issue was significant because it was the first time Rudd had been exposed for a lack of leadership and for "trying to be all things to all people". Labor MP critical of Rudd -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Labor MP Michael Danby - who previously expressed Q6. (C/NF) Labor MP Michael Danby - who previously expressed public concern over Rudd's tough rhetoric - told us he agreed with the government's policy, but that Rudd had played the politics badly. He confided that Rudd's media blitz on the issue last week showed Rudd "completely misread" the message from the recent poll (which Danby believes is accurate). Danby contends Rudd should have said nothing, rather than CANBERRA 00001006 002 OF 002 fuel the issue. ¶7. (C/NF) Comment: During the last parliamentary sitting, Rudd briefly showed confidence and plain speaking when he slammed the former government's approach that "had kids behind razor wire" and pointed out the global factors at play. He has since returned to tedious spin and bureaucratic jargon making him look evasive and out of his depth. If the standoff on the Customs vessel is resolved, Rudd will spin this as a win for his brinkmanship and the issue may cool politically. On the other hand, the Opposition will have substantial ammunition to lambast Rudd's "tough" approach on border protection. Rudd almost certainly will not change tack and re-introduce some of the previous government's tough immigration laws. Doing so would be a humiliation for him and would cause internal dissent. End Comment. CLUNE