SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S CAIRO VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 000937

SIPDIS

FOR NEA/ELA; NSC STAFF FOR KUMAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL KIRF EG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S CAIRO VISIT

Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reason 1.4(d)


1. (SBU) Mission Cairo welcomes your visit, the first by a
U.S. president to Cairo since President Clinton's in 1990.
The Egyptian Government will also warmly welcome you, as will
the Egyptian people, who are proud that the U.S. has
recognized what they view as Egypt's central role in the Arab
and broader Islamic world. Your visit is a source of hope at
a time when Egypt's young population is pessimistic about the
future and concerned about the economic and social
conditions, the Israeli-Arab peace process, and the apparent
decline in Egypt's regional influence.

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Egyptian Religious Dynamics
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2. (SBU) About ninety percent of Egypt's eighty-three
million people are Muslim, mainly Sunni. Despite the
predominance of Sunni Islam, Egyptian Islam is diverse and
labels do not fit easily on the wide-range of competing ideas
including Sufism, Salafism, political Islam represented by
the Muslim Brotherhood, and what many Egyptian's view as
"traditional" Egyptian Islam, symbolized by Egypt's Al Azhar.
Egypt is also home to the largest Christian population
(approximately 8-10 million) in the Middle East,
overwhelmingly Coptic Orthodox.


3. (C) Religion plays an overarching role in Egyptian life,
and Egyptians of all faiths view Egypt as central to the
history and development of monotheism. Egyptians are proud
of, and revere, sites where the Holy Family is reputed to
have found refuge in Egypt. Muslims and Christians coexist
in relative harmony, as did Jews before the 1952 Free
Officers revolution, although Christian-Muslim relations have
been strained in recent decades by the rise of Islamic
fundamentalism and conflict with the West. Muslims and
Christians continue to celebrate each others important feast
days, religious leaders of all faiths are treated as
respected national figures, and birthday celebrations of
Muslim and Christian historical religious figures are wildly
popular.


3. (C) Al Azhar: Founded more than one thousand years ago
by the Shi'a Fatamid dynasty, Al Azhar is a source of pride
for Egyptians and is viewed as the preeminent educational
institution in Sunni Islam. Although a number of its
graduates have adopted extremist views - including "blind
sheik" Omar Abdul Rahman - its curriculum is generally seen
as moderate. In the last fifty years, it has expanded its
curriculum to include the humanities, engineering and
sciences and added women to its faculty and student body. Al
Azhar also operates a national network of schools, providing
primary and secondary education to an estimated one million
children. Graduates of Al Azhar's secondary schools are
guaranteed a place in Al Azhar's main Cairo campus or in one
of ten satellite campuses, with a total enrollment of
170.000. There are about 40,000 foreign students from
throughout the Islamic world at Al Azhar. Since the 1952
Free Officers revolution, the GoE has tightly controlled Al
Azhar's leadership. The Grand Sheik of Al Azhar, currently
Mohamed Sayed Tantawi, is a GoE employee, and Al Azhar's
fatwas (religious rulings) support GoE policy, to the
detriment of Al Azhar's credibility on the Egyptian "street."
Al Azhar views itself as open to the West, and in recent
years has condemned extremism and institutionalized
inter-faith dialogue mechanisms. Its leadership publicly
welcomed your visit to Cairo.


4. (C) Muslim Brotherhood: The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is
Egypt's most popular and best organized opposition
political/religious force. Although illegal since 1954, the
group, which has formally renounced violence, is tolerated by
and avoids direct confrontation with the GoE. "Independent"
politicians affiliated with the MB hold 86 of the 444 seats
in Egypt's parliament. The GoE rendered the MB less
politically capable with mass arrests of leaders and members
(currently, an estimated 250 MBs are in detention, including
56 arrested in recent weeks),military tribunals, and a ban
on religiously-based political parties. The GoE views the MB
as threatening not only the regime, but also the peace treaty
with Israel and Egypt's religious tolerance. The GoE
believes the MB is aligned with Hamas. The MB views itself
as an Islamic reform movement (in contrast to what it sees as
a conservative Egyptian religious establishment) and seeks to
blend Islamic ideology with grass roots political activism.
Although admiring of U.S. scientific and technological
achievements, the MB is adamantly opposed to U.S. policy in
the region. After the announcement of your visit, MB leader
Mohammed Mahdi Akef characterized the trip as "useless"

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absent a change in U.S. policy.


5. (C) Salafists: Egyptian Muslims have become
increasingly conservate over the past two decades, something
many attribute to Saudi influence and money. Egypt has
witnessed a striking increase in Salafism, a fundamentalist
movement that seeks to emulate the Islam practiced at the
time of the Prophet, and whose adherents disavow "modern"
activities including politics. Salafisn was founded by Al
Azhar scholars in the late nineteenth century as an Islamic
revival movement, but has become associated not only with a
return to early Islam, but also violent extremism. Salafis
are increasingly visible among Egypt's lower and middle
classes and on university campuses. Egyptian Salfists'
attitudes towards the U.S. and the West range from
indifference among the most inward-looking to hostility.


6. (C) Sufis: Sufism, a mystical form of Islam that has
long flourished in Egypt, has an estimated ten million
Egyptian adherents, divided among seventy-five GoE-recognized
Sufi orders. The religious and political views of each order
are shaped in large part by the order's leader. Egyptian
Sufis are seen as politically quietist, although historically
Sufis have been politically active (MB founder Hasan al Bana
was a Sufi),with a moderate view of Islam and a relatively
open attitude towards the West.


7. (C) Christians: Egypt's Christians, an estimated ten
percent of the population, share a common culture with their
Muslim neighbors and generally live in relative harmony.
They complain, however, of official discrimination in
government hiring and in the licensing process for church
construction and renovation. Egypt's quasi-governmental
National Council for Human Rights recently noted with alarm
the rise in sectarian conflict in Egypt. Despite this,
Egypt's Christians generally consider the GoE a bulwark
against Islamic extremism. They are nervous that U.S.
outreach to the Islamic world could somehow lessen the U.S.
commitment to religious freedom and hope your speech
recognizes Christianity's important, and ongoing,
contribution to Egyptian society.


8. (C) Baha'is and Jews: Egypt's 2000 indigenous Baha'is
have been much in the news recently as adherents struggled
with a legal system that fails to recognize members of
religions other than Islam, Christianity or Judaism. In
recent months, the Baha'i have made substantial legal
progress and the GoE has taken limited steps to address the
issue. Egypt's Jewish community has been reduced by
emigration to approximately 125 aging members in Cairo and
Alexandria.


9. (C) The GoE and Religion: GoE leadership, especially
the upper levels, view themselves as moderate Muslims,
tolerant and protective of Egypt's religious minorities. The
GoE's commitment to stability, however, can be greater than
its commitment to religious freedom, and it is often
unwilling to take decisions that might upset Egypt's
religious balance. For instance, in cases of violence
between Christians and Muslims, it often fails to impose
criminal penalties, and instead seeks "reconciliation," an
approach Egyptian Christians believe encourages further
violence. Similarly, the GoE often refuses to grant permits
for new church construction, arguing that more churches could
fuel Muslim resentment, endangering Christians.

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Egyptian Religious Leaders You May Meet
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10. (C) Egyptian religious leaders will be keen to attend
your speech. You are likely to meet the following:

-- Dr. Mohammed Sayyed Tantawi, Grand Imam of Al Azhar:
Tantawi is the senior Muslim official in Egypt and head of Al
Azhar, including the mosque, university and educational
institutes, and its fatwa issuing body, the Islamic Research
Council. The GoE appointed him Grand Imam in 1996 and he
formerly served as Egypt's Mufti.

-- Dr. Ali Gom'aa, Mufti of the Republic: The Mufti is the
second-ranking figure in Egyptian Islam, and is responsible
for Egypt's fatwa issuing body, Dar Al-Iftah. The GoE
appointed him Mufti in 2003, after a long career as a
professor of jurisprudence at Al Azhar University. He is
viewed as a proponent of moderate, Sufi-influenced Islam.

-- Pope Shenouda III: Pope Shenouda has served as leader of
the Coptic Orthodox Church since 1971. He frequently visits
the U.S., both for medical treatment and to meet with the

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U.S. Coptic community. Pope Shenouda is eighty-five and in
poor health.

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What Are Egyptians Looking for in Your Speech?
-------------- -


11. (U) Publicly and privately, Egyptians were giddy over
the results of the 2008 U.S. presidential election. The
peaceful transfer of power was particularly appreciated here,
and the sense that "America is back," was ubiquitous.
Observers saw the election as our single most potent and
effective democracy promotion "activity." The Egyptians are
now looking for results and their expectations for your
speech to the Islamic world are high and perhaps unrealistic.


12. (C) The Egyptian media and public saw the previous
Administration as bent on regional hegemony and blind support
for Israel at the Arabs' expense. Angered by the U.S.
invasion of Iraq and also dubious about Afghanistan,
Egyptians sympathized with the ideal of 'resistance.' Abu
Ghraib and Guantanamo convinced many that the U.S. was
anti-Islam.


13. (C) Egyptians saw President Bush's approach to Israel
as complicit with occupation, expansion of settlements and
what they saw as the inhuman blockade of Gaza. At the same
time, however, there has been an Egyptian backlash against
Hamas, driven primarily by Hamas' 2008 breach of the
Gaza-Egypt border. Polls show the great majority of
Egyptians consider America to be as great a threat to their
security as Israel. Interestingly, your popularity in these
polls is far greater than that of the U.S. as a whole.


14. (C) The overarching concern of our Egyptian
interlocutors is the Arab-Israeli peace process. Egyptians
recognize and appreciate the steps the U.S. has taken since
the inauguration; maintaining support for a two state
solution, the appointment of Special Envoy Mitchell, and U.S.
support for Gaza reconstruction. Your audience will be
listening for further tangible steps, specifically how the
U.S. will deal with Prime Minister Netanyahu's lack of
commitment to a Palestinian state and the continued Israeli
expansion into the West Bank and East Jerusalem.


15. (C) Egyptians frequently decry the perceived lack of
Western respect for their society and traditions. While
Egyptians are generally open to the U.S., they are threatened
by and resent what they see as attempts to impose foreign
values. At the same time, younger Egyptians have little
confidence in their own institutions' ability to deliver
opportunities or a decent quality of life. While welcoming
an open discussion of difficult issues, they will look for
signs of appreciation and respect for their society and
traditions. They deeply suspect U.S. and Western moves
against other Islamic countries, including Iran. While most
Egyptians resent Iranian interference in Egypt via Hezballah
and Hamas, the street is largely unconcerned by the prospect
of Iranian nuclear weapons. Israel has them, so why not
Iran, is a common response.


16. (C) Your election restored the faith of many Egyptians
in the American political system. Young Egyptians in
particular have high expectations for your administration,
but are also looking for change that will provide them hope
for deliverance from a bleak personal economic future.


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