MFA ON SYRIA, LEBANON AND YEMEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000888 SIPDIS NSC FOR KUMAR E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV SY YE LE EG SUBJECT: MFA ON SYRIA, LEBANON AND YEMEM Classified By: COUNSELOR CATHERINE HILL-HERNDON REASONS: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Key points: -- SYRIA: MFA Cabinet Advisor Mahmoud Afifi told us May 18 that the tenor of Egyptian-Syrian relations has improved recently, and that Damascus appears to be taking a less obstreperous posture toward Egyptians efforts at Palestinian reconciliation. -- LEBANON: Afifi said that the Egyptians believe the message of Nasrallah's May 15 speech was that he intends to remain the "master" in Lebanon regardless of the June electoral result. -- YEMEN: Afifi said that Egypt is increasingly worried about the situation in Yemen. Recent President Mubarak phone calls to President Saleh have only heightened GOE concerns that the Yemeni government may be in over its head in the south. ¶2. (C) Afifi characterized Syrian behavior as "really polite" over the past three months. Media attacks on Egypt have abated. While there has been no real increase in bilateral cooperation, Afifi said that the Syrians no longer appear to be actively working against Egyptian efforts to broker Palestinian reconciliation. He assessed that the Saudis are "pulling back a bit" from their initial outreach to Damascus (which began in February),and are taking a "wait and see" approach in the run-up to the Lebanese elections. ¶3. (C) Afifi said that the Egyptian embassy in Damascus had reported Syrian displeasure over the May 15 Nasrallah speech in Lebanon, and are worried that Nasrallah may be seeking to stir things up at a time when Damascus wants calm in Lebanon. Afifi said that the MFA had sent a note to the Presidency following the Nasrallah speech assessing that Nasrallah,s message was that he expects to remain the "master" in Lebanon regardless of the electoral result. In addition, Afifi noted that the Syrians remain perpetually worried about losing influence in Lebanon, including through greater assertion of power and independence by Hizballah. ¶4. (C) Yemen: Afifi denied media reports that the Egyptians are mediating between the Yemeni government and rebel groups. However, he said there is an "Egyptian-Saudi plan," but that it had not been activated. Afifi said that Mubarak had called Yemeni President Saleh twice in the past week over the situation with the rebels, and that Salah had told Mubarak that "everything is under control," something that has only made the Egyptians more nervous given their assessment of reality on the ground. Afifi said that the specific Egyptian concern is that three rebel movements (i.e. the separatists, Islamists and the Houthis) are all active, and the Yemeni government could potentially be overwhelmed. He also said that recent Yemeni political and economic decisions for the benefit of northerners had antagonized southern Yemenis. He opined that the Yemenis need to activate retired military officers in the south to stabilize the situation. Afifi said he had recommended FM Aboul Gheit call Saudi FM Saud al Faisal to consult, noting that the Saudis may not view the current situation with the same level of urgency SCOBEY