EGYPT TO HOST FIFTH ROUND OF INTRA-PALESTINIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000829

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FO AND NEA/IPA; NSC FOR SHAPIRO AND KUMAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL IS EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT TO HOST FIFTH ROUND OF INTRA-PALESTINIAN
NEGOTIATIONS

Classified By: COUNSELOR CATHERINE HILL-HERNDON
REASONS: 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Key points:

-- The Egyptians will host the fifth round of negotiations
between the Palestinian factions beginning May 16 in Cairo.
MFA Director for Palestinian Affairs Yasser Osman told us May
13 that he was not optimistic an agreement will be reached on
a consensus PA government or major underlying issues.

-- Osman did not expect Hamas to boycott the talks because of
PA President Abbas' plan to swear in a new interim
government, but assessed that Hamas may harden its
negotiating stance. He told us that the Egyptians want the
reconciliation process to continue, because it allows Cairo
to maintain a channel to Hamas, and ensures stable
Egypt-Hamas relations.

-- Osman assessed that the current sticking points in the
Palestinian negotiations are on security arrangements in Gaza
and agreement on an electoral framework for the planned
January 2010 elections.

-- Osman told us that the Egyptian EMBASSY in Damascus has
reported that Syria, Iran and Damascus-based Hamas leaders
are in "no hurry" to finalize Palestinian reconciliation.


2. (C) MFA Director for Palestinian Affairs Yasser Osman told
us May 13 that the Egyptian Intelligence Service (EGIS) will
host the fifth round of intra-Palestinian talks May 16 in
Cairo. He said that the GOE had consulted with PA President
Abbas on how to avoid any negative "spillover" on the planned
talks from PA plans to swear in a new government. Osman
assessed that Hamas would not boycott the talks, but may
"harden its stance" as a result of Abbas' plan.


3. (C) Osman said that the GOE is "realistic" over its
expectations, and that he does not foresee a breakthrough in
the coming days. He told us that the Egyptian EMBASSY in
Damascus had reported that Hamas leadership there, along with
Syria and Iran, are in "no hurry" to see the talks succeed,
or for that matter, fail. He assessed that Fatah is taking
the same view. As for Egypt, Osman said that the GOE will
seek to maintain the intra-Palestinian reconciliation process
and prevent an overt breakdown, if for no other reason than
to maintain reasonable relations, and a channel, with Hamas.
Also, Osman said that regional diplomatic competitors (e.g.
Qatar) cannot be allowed to "take the Palestinian file" from
the Egyptians. An outright failure of the talks would lead
to an Arab League meeting, at which the Syria-Qatar block
would no doubt try to establish a new process outside of
Cairo to address Palestinian reconciliation.


4. (C) Osman said that the two current areas of contention
are security and the electoral framework. On security. he
said that Egypt supports the idea of a 10,000 man "joint PA
force" for Gaza. Hamas, however, is pressing to maintain the
status quo through the planned January 2010 elections. Osman
said that would be disastrous to prospects for a fair
election in Gaza. On the electoral framework, Osman said
that Hamas is arguing for 60 percent of the election to be
based on a proportional system, with 40 percent via a
district electoral mechanism. Fatah seeks 80 percent from
the proportional system. Osman said the Egyptians are trying
to reach a compromise in the range of a 65 (proportional) 35
(district) split, but he personally did not expect Fatah to
agree.
SCOBEY