SOUTH SUDAN LIAISON OFFICE ON ICC AND CPA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000626 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019 TAGS: PREL ECON PGOV KISL SU EG SUBJECT: SOUTH SUDAN LIAISON OFFICE ON ICC AND CPA Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Key Points -- According to Government of South Sudan (GOSS) officials, the GOSS expected an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir and has encouraged him to work with the ICC and not ignore the warrant. -- Bashir has turned the ICC arrest warrant into a fight with the West. The focus on the arrest warrant has stopped progress on everything else including Abyei border resolution and CPA implementation. -- The Arab League (AL) Summit "empowered" Bashir in the face of the ICC arrest warrant. Egypt must support the AL position or be labeled "a tool of the West." -- The Government of Egypt (GOE) views Sudanese stability as a national security issue with implications for Egypt's water and food security issues. -- GOSS officials admit that they have tribal, financial and military problems in southern Sudan. However, they feel that these problems are manageable with U.S. assistance. ¶2. (C) Comment: In our March 31 meetings with Edward Lino, the SPLM Administrator for Abyei, Parmena Makuet Mangar, Chief Liaison Officer for the GOSS Liaison office in Cairo and Watts Roba, the GOSS Liaison office Financial Administrator, we noted that the GOSS officials have no plan for the next two years. They are hoping to maintain the CPA until the 2011 referendum, which they expect will result in an independent South Sudan. In another conversation, Mangar mentioned that the U.S. can have the "first Embassy in Juba." The GOSS officials have no desire to engage with the AL which they see as supporting the Islamization of Sudan. The GOSS liaison office works with the GOE on development and refugee affairs. However, they view Egypt's assistance as disingenuous and tied to keeping the South under Khartoum's control. While trying to promote unity, the GOE is also trying to establish good bi-lateral ties with the GOSS. President Mubarak's trip to Juba in November 2008 was the first by an Egyptian president since 1962, and a sign that Egypt is hedging its bets so that it will have some influence over the GOSS's water policy in the event that South Sudan becomes independent. -------------- --- Focus on ICC to the Detriment of Everything Else -------------- --- ¶3. (C) Lino told us that the GOSS expected the ICC to issue an arrest warrant. He said that GOSS President and Sudanese VP, Salva Kiir warned Sudanese President Bashir about the seriousness of the ICC charges against him and encouraged Bashir to work with the ICC. However, Lino said that Bashir is ignoring this counsel and the SPLM is concerned that Bashir is turning the arrest warrant into a rallying point to focus attention on the ICC at the expense of everything else. He complained that there has been no resolution to the Abyei border situation. Lino said that the deadline for a decision on the Abyei border passed two months ago. He said that concern with the ICC distracted everyone from Abyei border resolution. ¶4. (C) Mangar said that Bashir has been successful in turning the arrest warrant into a war against the U.S. U.K. and France. He criticized the opposition of China and Russia to the ICC and accused these countries of giving Bashir "breathing room." Mangar stated that the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) continues to advise Bashir to "engage with the ICC legally" and not close the door to the West. ¶5. (C) All leaders stated that the return of the international NGOs is critical to stabilizing the humanitarian situation in Darfur. Lino said that the GOS invited Arab and Islamic countries to come to Darfur to fill the humanitarian gap, but he opined that these aid providers also had an "Islamic agenda." He expressed his fear about growing Islamism in Sudan. He pointed to the use of Islamic NGOs in Darfur and Bashir's Islamic rhetoric to defend himself against the ICC. He said this would have a negative effect on the country. -------------- The Future of the CPA -------------- CAIRO 00000626 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Lino told us that the "light is disappearing at the end of the CPA tunnel." He stated that the NCP signed the CPA with the intention to "water it down." However, John Garang's death was a "gift from Allah" because it relieved the NCP of all responsibility for CPA implementation. Lino stated that elections will not happen in 2009 as mandated by the CPA, and he fears that the referendum on North-South unity will never take place. Lino stated that the SPLM is ready to work with the NCP to maintain the CPA, but he opined that the SPLM can no longer work with Bashir. ¶7. (C) Mangar said if the CPA is maintained the South will choose independence, which will likely result in a civil war with the North. He said that this time a conflict would be different because the East and West of the country will not side with Khartoum as in the past. Lino agreed and said that the war would be a "to be or not to be" conflict on South Sudan, which he opined the South would win. -------------- Arab League Summit Empowers Bashir -------------- ¶8. (C) Lino called the Arab League (AL) summit a "meeting of dictators" and said it was no surprise that they supported one of their own. Roba called the AL leaders "blind" and said there was no way to persuade them to change their minds as "they are all in the same position." Lino concluded that AL support "empowered" Bashir in the face of the ICC arrest warrant. Mangar said the Arab League portrayed its support for Bashir as a fight against "neo-colonialism," and he opined that Egypt has to support the AL position or risk being labeled "a tool of the West." -------------- Egypt Promotes Unity and Security -------------- ¶9. (C) Mangar argued that Egypt's policy in Sudan is based on security (i.e. water and food),and unity. The water issue is paramount and the GOE reminds the GOSS of the importance of water to Egypt in every bi-lateral meeting in Cairo and Juba. Mangar said that the GOE is seeking assurances from the GOSS on the unity of Sudan. Egypt tells the GOSS that the projects that the GOE sponsors in the south are benefits of unity. However, Mangar opined that Egypt's long-term ties and loyalties lie with northern Sudan. -------------- Managing South Sudan's Problems -------------- ¶10. (C) When queried, all three officials admitted that the south and the GOSS have problems that they are working to resolve. Lino stated that there are tribal problems in southern Sudan, but he feels that these problems are localized and manageable. Mangar said that southern Sudanese are more united today than ever before. He stated that there have always been tribal issues between the Nuer and Dinka, but today they fight with Kalashnikovs instead of sticks so the consequences are greater. However, he told us that Salva Kiir has become a "figure of unity" and the GOSS is working to resolve these tribal issues. ¶11. (C) Lino told us that the biggest problem in the South is the lack of money. He said that the GOSS is over-reliant on oil money and oil payments from Khartoum are delayed. Mangar said the sudden drop in oil prices also alerted GOSS officials to the inability to collect taxes and the corruption of government officials. The GOSS is working to address both these deficiencies. Roba told us that the financial problems are such that the GOSS civil service payroll is now five months late. ¶12. (C) Lino expressed concern that the Chinese, Russians, and Iranians are supporting the GOS militarily, economically and politically. He asked us what the U.S. is planning to do to support South Sudan. He mentioned that Sudanese Government of National Unity Foreign Minister Deng Alor led a delegation to Washington in late March to ask for U.S. support for South Sudan. SCOBEY