EGYPT: AMBASSADOR PRESENTS USG ESF OFFER

S E C R E T CAIRO 000613 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019 TAGS: EAID ECON PREL EG SUBJECT: EGYPT: AMBASSADOR PRESENTS USG ESF OFFER REF: STATE 31978 Classified by Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reason 1.4 (D). ¶1. (S) Key points: -- Prime Minister Nazif and Ambassador discussed way forward on ESF on April 9. His bottom line up front: "the relationship is more important than ESF." --Nazif also expressed appreciation for the Administration's approach to Egypt and appreciated that the Secretary had fulfilled her pledge to him in Sharm that she wanted to see Egyptian ESF increased, be more flexible, and be without conditionality. -- Given growing economic pressures on Egypt, he nevertheless asked that the Administration try to find an additional $50 million in FY 2010 ESF, noting that it could be used to fund economic development projects in the Sinai. --He also stressed the importance of resolving the issue of direct D&G grants, indicating that President Mubarak himself had wanted this resolved. He did not yet agree to free up programming for the FY 2009 and asked that the Administration would work to assure FY 2010 money would not come with conditionality, including Egypt-specific earmarks on D&G. --Ambassador counseled that additional funding for 2010 would not be forthcoming but, in the spirit of consultation, promised to relay the request. The Ambassador stressed the importance of moving the 2009 program forward, with special attention to Sinai development. She also made clear that although the new Administration sought a more cooperative and constructive dialogue on democracy and human rights, the President and Secretary were second to none in their commitment to these issues and to constructive programs. ¶2. (S) COMMENT: Nazif's tone and manner made clear his own desire to wrap this issue up and move on. He was disappointed about the levels but sounded prepared to accept both the FY 2009 and FY 2010 funding if he must. We clearly sensed that the Minister of International Cooperation, who sat next to him and cued him on certain points, has convinced the government to play this out somewhat longer and see if they can get something more. Aboulnaga intervened to prevent the prime minister from agreeing to allow the 2009 funds to be used immediately, hoping that this adds to Egypt's leverage. Discussion focused on the level for FY 2010, on the future, on D&G, and on assuring that ESF is as flexible as possible. Action Request: We would like to go back the prime minister with the following response: --We cannot identify additional funding for 2010. While we anticipate a very difficult budget environment for the next several years, we have not take a decision as to 2011 and would welcome discussion with the GOE on the future of ESF. --Reiterate the commitment to oppose congressional conditioning of Egypt's ESF, including the trend of putting internal earmarks within the annual appropriation, eg for D&G. --The U.S. has taken another look at the mechanism of D&G funding. While we will continue to support civil society and promote democracy and human rights programs in Egypt, we will use bilateral ESF to fund only registered NGOs and Government of Egypt entities. --The U.S. will entertain a request from the GOE to modify the terms of past and future cash transfers to make the funds more useful to the GOE in the current financial situation. ¶3. (S) The Ambassador called on Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif on April 9 to deliver the ESF points contained in reftel. Also present at the meeting were Minister for International Cooperation Fayza Aboulnaga, PM Advisor Sami Saad Zaghloul, PM Spokesman Magdy Rady, MFA Cabinet Advisor Hatem Al Atawi, MFA Assistant Minister for North America Shadia Farag, USAID Mission director and econ counselor (notetaker). The meeting followed earlier meetings in which the Ambassador had previewed the message with Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit on Sunday, April 5 and Gamal Mubarak on April 8. Neither Aboul Gheit nor Gamal Mubarak made any substantive comment on the proposal, but said that the prime minister would respond on behalf of the GOE. Gamal was particularly interested in a possible initiative that could be announced during a presidential visit, and promised to be in touch with us on that. ¶4. (S) Ambassador told Nazif the Administration sees ESF as part of the overall bilateral relationship, not a stand alone piece. She underlined that the President and Secretary are determined to "restore harmony" in the relationship, and have sent positive signals to this end, to which Egypt has also responded with positive signals. She noted that ESF is an area where "we are trying to listen, and to take your concerns into account, within the context of our new realities." She explained the Administration intends to propose $250 million in ESF for Egypt, along with a one-time only grant of $50m for a security program with EGIS chief Soliman. This, the Ambassador said, was $100m in additional resources for FY 2010. The Ambassador asked for Egypt's discretion on this point and explained that this request would not be confirmed until the budget was actually submitted to Congress, and that she was not in a position to discuss FY 2011 numbers. ¶5. (S) The Ambassador noted that the US is open to discussing the possibility of an endowment, but cautioned "we may have different ideas about how this would work, and we would need Congressional approval." Nevertheless, she said, the USG is prepared to send a technical team out to Cairo to talk about how such a program might work. Another key issue for Egypt has been conditionality. On this, the Ambassador noted, there is no conditionality in the FY 2009 legislation, and the Administration will continue to work against inclusion of conditionality in the FY 2010 budget as well. With regard to the Egyptian request to use ESF for debt relief, the Ambassador told Nazif that the USG had taken a second look at this and said we had once again agreed that we were not in a position to support the use of ESF for debt relief. ¶6. (S) Finally, she said, the USG is ready to move ahead with programming ESF for FY 2009, particularly for use in supporting economic development in the Sinai. The Ambassador underlined the sensitivity of the smuggling issue, observing that it is a very high priority for this Administration. Egypt's agreement to move forward on this would be viewed as a positive political signal from Egypt. Citing the Secretary's letter to Prime Minister Nazif, the Ambassador emphasized that the US would like to help with this problem, working with MIC, and to put economic support into Bedouin communities engaged in smuggling. Addressing this issue would also help the President and the Secretary promote a robust bilateral relationship with Egypt in the Congress. ¶7. (S) Nazif agreed that the US has made a "real attempt to put the relationship back on track in many ways." "The increase is a positive point. It signals a change in direction. But we are in trouble, and our budget is in trouble. You can't blame us for trying to get to a level where we are more comfortable." And, he concluded, "we should agree, going ahead, to look at a target that is higher." He also noted, however, that ESF is only part of the equation, but that in the past, ESF has "signaled" where the bilateral relationship is going and "this is why we want it back." In recent years, he said, Egypt had started to think of ESF as an "irritant. It had started to bother us. There is no reason for that." Even so, he said, the strategic basis of the relationship has "not changed, even under the previous Administration." At a later point in the conversation, he said that he had asked the Secretary, when she was in Sharm El Sheik, about the ESF program. He said she told him she would expand it, make it more flexible, and without conditionality. "I do appreciate that she has delivered on what she promised me." BOTTOM LINE: $50m MORE -------------- ¶8. (S) The prime minister said Egypt is reforming economically, and although the military aid is important, "a strong economy is important to us and to the U.S. And we can't ignore what US aid has done for us over the years. Now, however, he said, "I sometimes feel like I am competing with Field Marshall Hussein (Tantawi) and he is winning." The prime minister went on to say that he had talked to President Mubarak, who had suggested that he ask for additional funds. Nazif said he told the Egyptian president that there isn't much time left for changes to the FY 2010 budget. He suggested to us that Aboulnaga travel to the US and ask for another $50 million in ESF which, he said, they would use it for a major economic development plan in the works for the Sinai. ¶9. (S) According to Nazif, Egypt is "thinking big" about Sinai development, and wants to create an environment there that is attractive for investment. He said, for example, Port Said is now the third largest port in the Mediterranean, and will be the biggest in three years. Egypt hopes to see additional port development on other side of the Suez, in Sinai, under the "Port Sinai" brand name. The other plan is to push agricultural development, and investment in the Sinai's two industrial zones, both in Bedouin areas. These, he said, could be the focus of glass and cement production. Another area for possible investment is the port of El Arish, which, Nazif said, is very small. Roads and energy infrastructure are also needed. "We want to make Sinai livable." ¶10. (S) The Ambassador responded that there may be an opportunity for the US to work with Egypt in this area through trade and investment, citing the possibility of activity by the Trade Development Agency, OPIC and ExImBank. Nazif agreed that much of this investment can be outside of ESF but that "we need some seed money." Observing that these plans seemed somewhat longer term, the Ambassador emphasized the need to do something now, offering to put some smaller amounts of money into short term projects in the Sinai to demonstrate to the people there that "help is on the way." In response to Aboulnaga's suggestion that she visit the US, the Ambassador said her counterpart had not yet been confirmed, and that the best time to visit would be when we are ready to talk about the future of the program. NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶11. (S) In response to Nazif's request for $50 million for the Sinai, the Ambassador said that she understood he was asking her to go back one more time for the funds, but asked if it is not avaible, will you accept the package? Nazif said he understood that the US is in a difficult position at this time, but said his reluctance to accept the $250m level was that he did not want to set $250m as the standard for future years. The Ambassador underlined that Egypt could do a lot with a $250m program. Nazif's responded that the sharp reduction from $415m to $200m "hurt, slashing it down. That's what hurts. I don't think $50m is an issue." He emphasized that the additional money would be "very face saving for us." Aboulnaga interjected that "it is sort of a virtual line that we drew." Nazif went on to say that "if it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen and we will have to respond to that." ¶12. (S) At this point,Aboulnaga made her pitch for the additional $50m, noting that the Egyptian public has very high expectations of the new Administration. She commented that most of the FMF spending benefits the US. (Nazif interjected that "actually it goes back to Field Marshall Hussein.") She suggested that the additional $50m could go into a joint Obama-Mubarak presidential initiative. The Ambassador responded that of course public opinion was a sensitive matter, but that they had said that it wasn't a matter of money and "we don't think it is either. You shouldn't put a dollar amount on it." She urged Nazif and Aboulnaga to "stand publicly together with us" on this. Nazif agreed that the relationship is more important than the ESF, and admitted that "when we argue about dollars, it is just that" and that as Egypt's PM he needed to seek to get as much as he could. D&G -------------- ¶13. (S) Nazif also raised D&G programming, saying "we just want to do away with it altogether." The Ambassador explained Congress capped FY 2009 D&G spending at $20 million cap. Nazif argued it was about the same percentage of ESF as had been spent on D&G in FY 2008. The Ambassador emphasized that issues that have been difficult in the past, for example, human rights and political reform, would continue to be a high priority for the new Administration. She cautioned Nazif that no one should misinterpret the lowering of the D&G earmark or the administration's desire for more cooperation and less confrontation as a sign that these issues were extremely important to the U.S. She said the US would continue to support civil society. Nazif said he himself thought these were important: "I am not asking you to care less about these issues, I am just asking you not to use ESF." Aboulnaga commented that the programs had "not achieved their purpose." Nazif added that "you can use some money for those things, but let us agree on them." He said President Mubarak had told him that "we cannot take the FY 2009 money until we have done something on this." "The only way we can accept this money if we have a say in how the money is spent." The Ambassador said that the USG was looking at this issue but that we would have to talk about it further as we had a number of obligations to meet. She once again urged Egypt to register NDI and IRI, and said the US had thought, in 2004, that the NGO registration process would be easier. ¶14. (S) Nazif then said if there was no resolution of the issue in FY 2009, he could probably "get around" that, but that he hoped there would be no conditionality, including Egypt-specific earmarks for D&G, in the FY 2010 and asked for assurances on that. The Ambassador said the Administration would not put in any earmarks, but that they would come from Congress, and that the US and Egyptian governments would have to work together with Congress on possible conditionality. Future programming -------------- ¶15. (S) In terms of the future of the program, the Ambassador said the US is considering ways in which we might agree to focus our efforts, and the money, more specifically on human resources development and poverty alleviation. The US and Egypt might agree to choose a theme, for example, education. There appears to us to be considerable interest in this sector in Egypt. Nazif agreed that it is time to change gears. He said that although Egypt had made some proposals about the future of the program in the past, that in our bilateral efforts we had not pursued the idea of "from aid to trade" actively enough. He hoped the strategic dialogue would include trade, investment, and economic development. Aboulnaga raised the issue of restrictions on the use of cash transfer funds, citing limitations on the use of the money for debt repayment. We will report on this issue separately. SCOBEY