MFA SENIOR ADVISOR ON PALESTINIAN NEGOTIATIONS,

S E C R E T CAIRO 000571 NOFORN NEA FOR FO; NSC FOR RUDMAN, SHAPIRO AND PASCUAL E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV IS SY SU QA CD SA EG SUBJECT: MFA SENIOR ADVISOR ON PALESTINIAN NEGOTIATIONS, SYRIA AND SUDAN REF: CAIRO 450 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Matthew Tueller Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (S/NF) Key points -- MFA Senior Cabinet Advisor and Spokesman Hossam Zaki told DCM April 2 that Egyptian-sponsored negotiations on Palestinian government formation that resumed April 1 are "going nowhere." He did not articulate a contingency plan, and argued that the USG should not insist on Palestinian Authority commitment to the two-state solution without reciprocal pressure on the incoming Israeli government to make a similar commitment. -- Zaki offered his personal view that the USG should adopt a more flexible approach on composition of a new interim PA consensus government, arguing that any new interim government will have some level of ties with Hamas. He said the GOE respects and supports PA Prime Minister Fayyad, but urged the USG not to make Fayyad's survival a "litmus test" for acceptance of any new PA government. -- Zaki characterized Egyptian outreach to Syria as "moving slowly." He warned the USG not to "fall into the trap" of the previous practice of attempting to resolve Lebanese issues in Damasucs. The address should be Beirut. -- On Sudan, Zaki said it was too early to tell if the recent visit of President Bashir to Cairo, and President Mubarak's stern warning, had yielded results. Bashir is in a defiant mood over the ICC indictment. Zaki argued that resolution of the Darfur situation is contingent on improved Sudanese-Chadian ties. PALESTINIAN NEGOTIATIONS "GOING NOWHERE" ¶2. (S/NF) Zaki told DCM that the Egyptian sponsored negotiations on formation of an interim Palestinian consensus government that resumed April 1 in Cairo are "going nowhere." Fatah (led by Abu Alaa) and Hamas (led by Moussa Mazrouk) appeared unable to bridge unresolved issues (reftel). "We'll try again. How, I don't know," he said. Zaki said that the USG needs to consider pushing both the Palestinian and Israeli governments to accept previous agreements, and the two-state solution in general. ¶3. (S/NF) Zaki urged USG flexibility on the formation of an interim government, and to "accept" an interim PA with "some links" to Hamas. Egypt's primary goal is to get the PA back into Gaza, he said, and the second goal is to boost an alternative to Hamas in the run-up to anticipated Palestinian legislative and presidential elections in January 2010. "It appears right now Fatah is the only alternative. So we need to boost it," he said. ¶4. (S/NF) Zaki urged the USG not to make PA PM Fayyad a "litmus test" for USG acceptance of a new interim PA government. "It is not helpful if the USG insists on Fayyad. We like him. He is a good man, honest and transparent, and that is what is needed," he said. At the same time, Zaki claimed that the GOE regretted the departure of Israeli FM Livni. He argued that higher political objectives should supersede preservation of individual political leaders. DCM took the point, but said that the loss of Fayyad would almost certainly presage backsliding on significant security and financial transparency progress that had been achieved under his watch. EGYPTIAN/SYRIAN STATE OF PLAY ¶5. (S/NF) Zaki said that Egypt's outreach to Damascus was "going slowly." EGIS Chief Omar Soliman had recently sent a deputy to Damascus to consult with Hamas leadership, but had also met with his Syrian counterparts. Zaki noted that the Syrians had some room to maneuver out of the impasse they had faced with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, but he was not sure about Qatar's ability to do so. ¶6. (S/NF) Zaki said that the Syrians are taking the position that they "are out of Lebanon" and should not be pressed to moderate their behavior on that front. At the same time, he warned that the USG not "fall into the trap" of trying to resolve Lebanese political issues in Damascus. The address should be Beirut, he said. He suggested we raise Lebanon with the Syrians only in general terms, e.g. not to throw up obstacles to Lebanese sovereignty and/or elections. SUDAN ¶7. (S/NF) Zaki opined that it was too soon to tell if President Bahsir's recent visit to Cairo (and the reported stern message from President Mubarak) had yielded any impact. Bashir and his government are in a defiant mood, Zaki said, and needed to cool off. Once it did, he hoped that Bashir would take in the Egyptian warning, and work with the GOE on next steps. "Our objective is peace first, before justice. We want to work with the factions. It will take time," he said. ¶8. (S/NF) Zaki said that the Sudanese leadership consistently raises Chad as an issue with the GOE, and believe that a Darfur resolution is unachievable until Sudanese-Chadian relations can be resuscitated. "As long as this relationship is tense and adversarial nothing will happen," Zaki opined. ¶9. (U) Minimize considered. SCOBEY