THE WELL RUNS DRY FOR WATER MINISTER: DEBATE OVER

UNCLAS CAIRO 000533

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

OES TO AARON SALZBURG, NEA/ELA TO SCHALL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV ECON PGOV EAGR PBTS EG
SUBJECT: THE WELL RUNS DRY FOR WATER MINISTER: DEBATE OVER
WATER RESOURCES LEADS TO CABINET RESHUFFLE


1. (SBU) Key points:

-- The March 11 appointment of Mohamed Nasr El Din Allam as
Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources (MoIWR) highlights
the fight over limited water resources, pitting agribusiness
against environmental scientists and government officials who
are encouraging conservation and better planning of new farms
and housing developments.

-- Senior officials at MoIWR told us that the former
minister's opposition to unchecked agricultural development
in the desert and current water usage policy led to clashes
with the Prime Minister and Minister of Agriculture Abaza.



2. (SBU) COMMENT: The environmental sustainability and
economic feasibility of the new agricultural projects outside
the Nile Valley and Toshka city is still unclear. The
appointment of an academic with no managerial experience from
outside of the hierarchy of the MoIWR or the GOE-funded Water
Research Center hints at an effort to mute the ministry's
criticism of the PM and Abaza's plans to greatly expand
agricultural lands in the desert. END COMMENT.


3. (SBU) On March 11, Prime Minister Nazif appointed Mohamed
Nasr El Din Allam, a professor of civil engineering at Cairo
University, to the position of Minister of Irrigation and
Water Resources (MoIWR). Former minister Mahmoud Abu Zeid
resigned in early March, citing health and personal concerns
for his early departure. However, several senior officials
at MoIWR told us that Abu Zeid's opposition to unchecked
agricultural development in the desert led to clashes with
the Prime Minister and Minister of Agriculture Abaza over the
last year. The PM and Abaza sought additional quotas of
water for irrigation to support new agricultural projects in
the Western Desert, and supported the construction of the
planned city of Toshka, despite significant criticism from
environmental watchdog organizations, and concerns about cost
overruns (septel). Our sources at MoIWR note that Abaza is
pushing for a drastic reallocation of water for irrigation to
newly reclaimed land. On March 26, Abaza stated in the press
that traditional agricultural areas in the Nile Valley
(approximately 6 million feddans) consume 80 percent of water
allocated to irrigation and produce only 55 percent of the
total agricultural production in Egypt. He claimed that the
newly reclaimed agricultural lands already produce the
remaining 45 percent of total production and will continue to
be more productive.


4. (SBU) In the last year, Abu Zeid spoke out publicly
against the development of El Sallam Canal and Toshka city,
indicating that both would overtax Egypt's water resources,
and claimed that Egypt had already reached the "water poverty
limit," which jeopardizes food security. Minimum water
sufficiency is defined as one thousand cubic meters of water
to produce enough food per person per year. Water poverty is
defined as failing to reach this minimum per person. Water
scientists estimate that Egypt is currently down to 650-700
cubic meters per person per year.


5. (SBU) After his appointment of Allam to the MoIWR, the PM
stated that "fresh blood" at the ministry would generate new
ideas for addressing the GOE's plan to develop half a million
new acres of arable land for farming. He added that this
vision required an additional 9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of
water. Per a 1959 agreement with Sudan, Egypt's portion of
Lake Nasser water, its main source of water for irrigation,
is 55.5 bcm per year, but USAID notes that Egypt is already
drawing close to 60 bcm per year.
SCOBEY