EGYPT SEEKS ENGAGEMENT WITH U.S. ON SUDAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000532 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO PHUM QA SU EG SUBJECT: EGYPT SEEKS ENGAGEMENT WITH U.S. ON SUDAN Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Key Points --The Government of Egypt (GOE) views stability in Sudan as essential to its national security because of concern over its access to Nile waters and increased Sudanese refugee flow into Egypt. --Egypt disapproves of the GOS' expulsion of NGOs from Darfur, and is focused finding ways to fill the gap to provide humanitarian services in Darfur. --The GOE supports a high-level international conference to reach a political solution to the problems in Sudan including resolving the ICC arrest warrant against President Bashir and continuing implementation of the CPA. --Egypt seems to favor postponing discussions on achieving justice until after humanitarian and political solutions are reached. -- Egypt is anxious to hold high-level discussions with the U.S. on Sudan. It views USG involvement as the key to widespread acceptance of a solution to the problems in Sudan. ¶2. (C) Comment: Egypt will always view Sudan's stability as preeminent because of the effect that instability could have on its access to Nile waters and the potential for increased refugee flows. We were struck by the lack of attention our Egyptian interlocutors gave to the Darfuri demand for justice. This is probably because Egypt believes the demand for justice will foment instability. Cairo does maintain open communication lines with Khartoum. The suggestion that the U.S. and Egypt could work together to create a comprehensive solution to the problems in Sudan could bear fruit given that parties in Darfur and the South view the U.S. as a fair arbiter and key supporter. -------------- -------------- Sudan: A Complex National Security Concern for Egypt -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) MFA Cabinet Advisor on African Affairs Ahmed Abu Zeid outlined for us Egypt's views and recent talking points with the Government of Sudan (GOS) on March 26. He told us that the GOE felt that Bashir's recent decisions had complicated the situation in Sudan. However, he stated that the GOE views the situation in Sudan as a "national security concern" and is looking for concrete solutions to resolve the humanitarian situation in Darfur, find a political resolution to the current "dilemma" with President Bashir in order to promote political stability and continued implementation of the CPA. ¶4. (C) In order to resolve Sudan, Abu Zeid told us that President Mubarak hosted Sudanese President Bashir in a one-on-one meeting on March 25 (septel, NODIS),and FM Aboul Ghayt and EGIS Chief Omar Soliman traveled to Khartoum on March 14 to speak with Bashir about all aspects of the situation in Sudan. They also discussed how Egypt could assist Sudan in finding a solution to the problems in the country. -------------- -------------- Egyptian Attempts to Deal with Humanitarian Situation -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) According to Abu Zeid, Aboul Ghayt and Soliman advised Bashir that the expulsion of the NGOs had further complicated the Sudan issues in the eyes of the international community. They also told Bashir that "the world is watching you and any consequences due to the expulsion will fall on you." However, Abu Zeid said that Bashir will not reverse his decision because there were activities carried out by some NGOs that were not humanitarian in nature, and were counterproductive to peace and stability in Sudan. He specifically cited NGO communications with the ICC, discouraging the return of Internally Displaced Persons to their villages, and disparaging the GOS to the people of Darfur. Egypt now feels that the top priority is to "fill the gap" created by the NGOs departure to ensure that the people in Darfur will not suffer. Abu Zeid said that Egypt advised the representative of the expelled NGOs to help from the outside by working closely with those on the inside. He asked the USG not to focus on the expulsion as the top priority, but to work with other organization to continue providing humanitarian assistance. CAIRO 00000532 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Abu Zeid told us that Bashir asked for Egypt's assistance in providing services that were previously performed by the NGOs. Abu Zeid said Egypt decided to send 40 doctors to Darfur under the direction of the MFA Egyptian Fund for Technical Cooperation with Africa (EFTCA). The 40 doctors will deploy immediately and operate on one month rotations. The Egyptian Medical Syndicate also agreed to provide a convoy of physicians that will leave for Darfur "in the coming days." Finally, the GOE will approach First Lady Suzanne Mubarak, in her capacity as President of the Egyptian Red Crescent, to host a conference of Arab and Islamic countries to mobilize resources for Darfur. FM Aboul Ghayt will also send a message to Arab foreign ministers asking them to participate and mobilize their civil society groups to prevent a new crisis in Darfur. -------------- Egypt Trying to "Rescue Sudan" -------------- ¶7. (C) Abu Zeid said the second priority is to find a way to "rescue Sudan" by finding a political resolution to the ICC arrest warrant. He told us that the ICC decision focused all attention on Bashir. Abu Zeid said that this approach is counterproductive and has put Sudan on the "road to disaster." Abu Zeid told us that Egypt is supportive of any comprehensive plan that would bring peace and stability to Sudan. He stated that the Doha talks and work of UN/AU Mediator Bassole were not comprehensive and "not serious efforts" because they only focused on JEM and GOS negotiations and do not address the ICC arrest warrant. Abu Zeid told us that the issuance of the arrest warrant has put us "beyond Doha," as everything in Sudan is now being viewed through the lens of the arrest warrant. He said that any solution to the problem has to address the warrant or it will not succeed. ¶8. (C) Abu Zeid said Egypt believe that the only practical solution is to convene a high-level international conference to come up with a "face-saving package deal," which is acceptable to all parties, to resolve the situation in Sudan. Abu Zeid told us that Egypt has not publicly pushed this proposal because the GOS is "not on board" with the idea. However, he said that Egypt is willing to work behind the scenes on this conference. Abu Zeid stated that time is short to get the ball rolling. He noted that Sudan will be a key topic at the Arab Summit in Doha, and he fears that Arab expressions of support will create friction with the West, and make Sudan a "zero sum game." -------------- Saving Justice for Later -------------- ¶9. (C) When we pushed Abu Zeid on the issue of justice, he struggled to come up with an answer and stated that a discussion on this topic was "premature" because Egypt had not given this a lot of thought. He said that perhaps the international conference could set benchmarks to commit the GOS to implement justice in exchange for a possible Article ¶16. However, Abu Zeid stated that there was "no need to tackle the justice issue now, we need to ensure stability, peace and CPA implementation first." -------------- Looking to Partner with the U.S. -------------- ¶10. (C) Abu Zeid said the GOE is very keen to "partner" with the USG on Sudan. He asked if Washington was interested in reaching out to Egypt to work jointly on alleviating the humanitarian suffering in Darfur, and promoting stability in Sudan. Abu Zeid stated that Egypt's strength as an interlocutor with Sudan comes from knowing the U.S. accepts its ideas. He hoped that Washington would consider sending a high-level visitor to engage with the GOE on Sudan. Abu Zeid suggested a possible meeting to exchange views, and discuss solutions to a successful resolution of the problems in Sudan. SCOBEY