"APRIL 6" LEADER PESSIMISTIC ABOUT STRIKE;

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000468 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA, DRL/NESCA AND H NSC FOR PASCUAL AND KUCHTA-HELBLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2029 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KISL EG SUBJECT: "APRIL 6" LEADER PESSIMISTIC ABOUT STRIKE; DESCRIBES FRAGMENTED GROUP REF: A. 08 CAIRO 2572 ¶B. 08 CAIRO 2462 ¶C. 08 CAIRO 2454 ¶D. 08 CAIRO 2431 ¶E. 08 CAIRO 862 ¶F. 08 CAIRO 783 Classified By: ECPO Mincouns William R. Stewart for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (S) KEY POINTS -- (S) "April 6 Movement" leader Ahmed Saleh is pessimistic the group will be able to organize an effective strike on April 6 to protest political and economic conditions. He cited an Egyptian public distracted by other problems and probable State Security (SSIS) interference. -- (S) Saleh described the "April 6 Movement" as increasingly divided between secular activists and Islamists. He plans to organize an "underground" secular "April 6" faction to counter the Islamists. -- (S) Saleh said that "April 6" member and blogger Mohammed Adel was "severely tortured" by State Security during his recent detention, and that a doctor was on hand to advise how SSIS could conduct the torture without leaving permanent marks on Adel's body. -- (S) Saleh expressed interest in returning to Washington and requested USG or private funding. ¶2. (S) Comment: It appears that "April 6" continues to be unable to function effectively, due largely to SSIS harassment and the leaders' difficult personal circumstances. Saleh has been sick, mostly unable to work, and apparently without basic financial resources for himself. The increasing internal divisions within the group, which are all too common in opposition movements, will only further hinder its effectiveness. -------------- Preparations for the Strike and Pessimism -------------- ¶3. (S) On March 16, "April 6 Youth Movement for Change" activist Ahmed Saleh told us that although the group has formally called for an April 6 strike on its Facebook site, he is pessimistic about the chances for success, especially in comparison with last year's strike. The group's call for a strike on April 6, 2008 attracted 70,000 members on-line and noticeably quieted Cairo's streets that day (ref F). Saleh said the strike is intended to focus attention on the group's demands for political and economic reforms. According to Saleh, "April 6" is working to organize the strike with the opposition group "Kefaya," which is internally divided. He attributed his low expectations for the strike to the Egyptian public's preoccupation with other problems, and probable SSIS efforts to disrupt the strike. He feared police would prevent "April 6" activists from distributing leaflets to advertise the strike, and that SSIS would increasingly crack down on the group's leaders. ¶4. (S) Saleh said many of the group's leaders plan to go into hiding soon to evade police arrests. For health reasons (he is suffering from kidney stones and breathing problems), Saleh will not go into hiding. He noted that SSIS has not harassed him following brief surveillance after his return from the U.S. in December 2008, but he believes SSIS is tapping his phone. (Comment: We assess this is likely. End comment.) He affirmed that Ahmed Maher, another leader of the group, would not go into hiding so he can organize the strike. Saleh noted that SSIS briefly detained Maher the week of March 8 after he photographed civil servants taking bribes at a government traffic office. According to Saleh, SSIS released Maher after erasing his camera. Saleh said Maher is able to work as a civil engineer for a private company, but that he sometimes experiences "difficulties" with SSIS when he travels to Upper Egypt for his job. -------------- Internal "April 6" Dynamics -------------- ¶5. (S) Saleh described tensions within the group between secular activists like himself and non-Muslim Brotherhood (MB) Islamists who want to promulgate "extreme, anti-western" rhetoric. He criticized their calls for rejecting the indictment of the Sudanese President. Saleh opined that the CAIRO 00000468 002 OF 002 group should be focusing on internal Egyptian issues. Saleh complained that many of the Islamist members of "April 6" are "corrupt" and "power-hungry." Because of this growing schism, Saleh noted that he wants to establish an "underground" secular faction of the group to counter the Islamists. Saleh mentioned that Israa Abdel Fattah, the "Facebook Girl" (ref E) who was detained following her role in organizing the April 6, 2008 strike, is now completely out of the group. He criticized her for speaking to the press. "We are trying to overthrow a regime nonviolently," he said, "there is no reason to speak to the press." ¶6. (S) Saleh told us he is in touch with "April 6" member and blogger Mohammed Adel whom SSIS arrested in November 2008 and released on March 10. According to Saleh, SSIS "severely tortured" Adel in its Nasser City office, with a doctor on hand to advise how SSIS could conduct the torture without leaving permanent marks on Adel's body. He said Adel was kept in solitary confinement in a cell measuring 1.5 meters by 1.5 meters, and that SSIS interrogated him about his "April 6" contacts and extracted his internet passwords. Saleh said that Adel has left the Muslim Brotherhood because of his distaste for the MB's conservative stances. Saleh expressed concern that Rami Al-Swisi, the "April 6" activist detained for about 18 hours on March 3, had agreed to become an SSIS informant. -------------- Returning to Washington -------------- ¶7. (C) Saleh expressed interest in returning to Washington after he recovers from kidney stone treatment. He is interested in participating in conferences in June on information technology and political non-violence, one of which he said is coordinated by Freedom House. Saleh also said he wants to attend hearings on House Resolution 1303 sponsored by Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA) concerning political freedoms in Egypt. Saleh noted that he would not be able to afford the travel, and requested USG or private funding. SCOBEY