ARAB LEAGUE CONCERNED ARREST WARRANT THREATENS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000416

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019
TAGS: PREL KPKO SU EG
SUBJECT: ARAB LEAGUE CONCERNED ARREST WARRANT THREATENS
SUDANESE STABILITY

REF: A. 08 CAIRO 1603

B. CAIRO 208

C. CAIRO 339

Classified By: Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs
Catherine Hill-Herndon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. Key Points

-- (C) The Arab League (AL) believes that the ICC arrest
warrant for Sudanese President Bashir threatens the peace and
stability of Sudan, but the AL advisor on African Affairs to
SYG Moussa told us that the Doha peace talks were still
possible because the genocide charge was dismissed.

-- (C) The AL held an emergency ministerial meeting on March
4, which resulted in the issuance of a resolution calling on
the UNSC to assume responsibility for maintaining peace and
stability in Sudan, and asking all Sudanese parties not to
seize the opportunity to create obstacles to peace.

-- (C) The AL believes the best way forward is to deal with
the charges against Bashir in continued Doha peace
negotiations.

-- (C) After discussions with many of the permanent UNSC
members, the AL will push the Government of Sudan (GOS) to
make progress on the ground in line with its Solution Package
for Sudan (reftel A). After such progress, the AL and the
African Union (AU) will send a delegation to New York to
advocate for a UNSC deferment of the arrest warrant.


2. (C) Comment: The AL's realization that progress on the
ground must precede any attempt to issue an Article 16
deferment could be beneficial if the League seriously pushes
Khartoum to address the legal and humanitarian issues. SYG
Moussa's visit to Khartoum on March 7-8 reflects the AL's
concern with the arrest warrant and the effect that it could
have on the AL-sponsored Doha peace talks. The AL has
invested considerable effort in the talks, and appears
willing to take steps to preserve the progress made in Doha.

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Arab League Sees Hope, Despite Arrest Warrant
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3. (C) Zeid al Sabban, African affairs advisor to the Arab
League SYG told us on March 5 that the issuance of an arrest
warrant for Sudanese President Bashir was not a surprise, but
the AL is "concerned" that the warrant could negatively
effect peace and stability in Sudan. However, he said that
there is still hope for the Doha peace talks because the
charge of genocide was dismissed. Al Sabban said that the AL
believes the best way forward is to deal with the charges
against Bashir in the context of continued Doha peace
negotiations. Al Sabban met on March 5 with all permanent
members of the UNSC, except Russia. From these meetings the
AL concluded that there needs to be progress on the ground in
Sudan before it can push for an Article 16 deferment of the
charges against Bashir. He said that the AL conveyed to the
GOS that it must now appoint an "independent prosecutor" to
address the ICC charges, and bring justice to the Sudanese
people as per the Arab Solution Package on Sudan (reftel A).
Al Sabban asserted that this would show the international
community that the GOS has the "political will" to deal with
the situation.

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The Arrest Warrant is not a Solution
--------------


4. (C) Al Sabban opined that the arrest warrant is not a tool
to push a peace deal. He said that ICC charges will not bring
justice because peace must exist before justice can be
enforced. Al Sabban stated that the CPA and DPA preceded the
ICC investigation. He once again compared the situation of
Bashir to the ICC's issuance of an arrest warrant against
Lord's Resistance Army Leader Joseph Kony (reftel B). Al
Sabban said that after the ICC's arrest warrant against Kony,
peace negotiations stopped because there was nothing to offer
Kony. Al Sabban asked rhetorically, "why would the GOS go to
peace talks after the ICC, if there is no carrot?" AL Chief
of Staff Hisham Youssef told us on March 8 that the League
and the AU will send a delegation to New York, probably in
mid-March, to advocate for a UNSC deferment of the arrest
warrant.


CAIRO 00000416 002 OF 002


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The Emergency Arab League Ministerial
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5. (C) Al Sabban told us that the Emergency Arab League
Ministerial on March 4 did not address the legal aspects of
the arrest warrant because it was attended by foreign
ministers, and not justice ministers. He stated that the GOS
voiced its opposition to the use of Article 16 during the
ministerial because "it does not want to beg." Al Sabban said
that the AL, despite insistence from the GOS, will not
condemn the arrest warrant, but instead it will express its
concern that the warrant could have a negative effect on the
stability and unity of Sudan, and the future of the peace
process that began in Doha in February. The League issued a
Resolution following the ministerial expressing its concern
at the effect the arrest warrant could have on the peace and
stability in Sudan. It called on the UNSC to assume the
responsibility to maintain peace and stability in Sudan. The
AL also asked all Sudanese parties not to seize the
opportunity to create obstacles to peace.


6. (C) Al Sabban stated that the AL wants to avoid the
"cowardice" of the way claims against Saddam Hussein were
handled. Therefore, the League is pushing the GOS to take
internal action to bring justice to Sudan and Darfur. Al
Sabban told us that AL discussions with the GOS at the
ministerial centered on the need to bring those responsible
for crimes in Darfur to justice. However, he said the GOS is
"very sensitive" about what it views as "foreign
intervention."

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Progress on the Peace Front in Doha
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7. (C) Al Sabban told us that the "Goodwill Agreement"
between the GOS and the Justice and Equality Movement was a
good first step. He stated that "mutual hatred" had made the
agreement difficult to achieve. Al Sabban asked that the
U.S. continue to encourage dialogue between the rebel groups
and the Sudanese Government. The AL and Qatar are now trying
to bring SLA Unity to the table and prevent Minni Minawi from
"escaping from the Darfur Peace Agreement." Al Sabban met
with Minawi during Minawi's visit to Cairo (reftel C),and is
angry that Minawi wants to be brought into the Doha talks.
He opined that Minawi does not know what to do and is
desperate to re-engage in peace negotiations. Al Sabban told
Minawi that he was already part of the Government of National
Unity, and if he had issues with his position he should speak
with President Bashir.
SCOBEY