EGYPT: COUNTRY TEAM ASSESSMENT FOR THE PROCUREMENT OF FOUR

UNCLAS CAIRO 000401 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA (IRWIN) AND PM (ARCHETTO) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL MASS MARR EG SUBJECT: EGYPT: COUNTRY TEAM ASSESSMENT FOR THE PROCUREMENT OF FOUR (4) C-130J-30 AIRCRAFT TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT OF EGYPT NATIONAL DEFENSE MISSION REF: A. EGYPTIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE LETTER OF REQUEST (08-166) FOR LETTER OF OFFER AND ACCEPTANCE (LOA),DATED 04 SEPT 08. SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED ¶1. (SBU) Description. In ref (a),the Government of Egypt (GOE) submitted a Letter of Request (LOR) for 4 C-130J transport aircraft. The primary mission of the C-130 is inter and intra theatre transport of people, cargo and equipment. These aircraft would supplement the current Egyptian Air Force (EAF) transport fleet. Additional airlift capability is being requested to bolster capacity and efficiency of air transportation for the GoE. The C-130J-30 can also serve as Search and Rescue, medical evacuation, firefighting, weather reconnaissance, Command and Control, and electronic/intelligence gathering platforms. However, none of these additional platform capabilities has been requested by the GoE with this request. ¶2. (SBU) Reason and justification for customer's request. The EAF already possesses transport aircraft to include 27 C-130H's and 17 light transport aircraft. The only aircraft possessed by the EAF that can provide a heavy cargo airlift capability is the C-130H. Many of the EAF C-130s are undergoing continuous maintenance and upgrades. Between one quarter and one half of the fleet is unflyable at any given time due to depot maintenance and modifications. This gap in their transport capability would be filled by the addition of the C-130J-30. The GoE schedules two or three flights to the United States each month in order to onload mission essential parts and supplies for other Egyptian military programs. They also make routine cargo trips to Europe and Asia. The C-130 is a cost effective aircraft to operate and maintain as compared to other, larger jet cargo carriers. Capable of carrying 7 pallet positions, and/or up to approximately 50,000 pounds, the C-130 is the right size for the amount of cargo the EAF needs moved. The C-130J-30 would also complement the current logistic infrastructure already in place supporting the other aircraft. ¶3. (SBU) System description and impact to force structure. Additional C-130s in the EAF fleet would have some impact on the EAF overall force structure. Some additional pilots, loadmasters and maintainers would have to be trained to support the additional aircraft. The C-130J has the ability to carry more, fly farther and faster than the current fleet while being operated and maintained by the existing force. Additional C-130s would add capacity to EAF's ability to airdrop airborne forces. Airdrop training operations are performed primarily for the currency of aircrew and paratroopers. Large scale airborne operations are not attempted, and lead to the conclusion that the C-130Js would be used primarily for international cargo transport. ¶4. (SBU) How the articles or services would contribute to both the U.S. and the recipient's defense/security goals. The C-130J-30 is the most recent aircraft in the C-130 lineage and is flown by many other countries and coalition partners around the world. These additional aircraft would further Egypt's ability to operate in a coalition airlift operation if they so desired. These aircraft would enhance the flow of parts and supplies between Egypt and the US sustaining numerous other Egyptian programs. Increasing the Egyptian organic airlift and logistics capability contributes to both countries' security goals. This increase in capability holds promise of Egypt's ability to join in coalition or combined efforts to support humanitarian missions or provide aid to many parts of the world. New aircraft can easily work within the African continent where aid missions are constantly needed. ¶5. (SBU) Justification for the type and quantity of articles or services requested. The EAF currently possesses and operates 27 C-130H model aircraft, although most were acquired in the early 1980's. The mission capable rate has decreased over time while costs to operate have increased. Also, the airlift mission has significantly increased over the same number of years. The EAF has requested additional airlift by repeatedly asking for additional C-130 H models similar to those in their own fleet. However, none are available in the open market or through Excess Defense Articles (EDA). The Egyptian need for more airlift has driven them to forego looking for used aircraft and accept the higher cost of the new aircraft. Four aircraft is a reasonable amount of aircraft for an initial purchase. The C-130J is the logical choice of airframe as this will meld nicely into the EAF fleet of C-130Hs due to the similarities between the airframes. The additional 4 aircraft provide a portion of the needed additional airlift required by the EAF and firmly establishes a robust logistical and maintenance base. The depot capability and logistical chain that exists for the C-130H model fleet will have some degree of commonality to the C-130J model, but will not be 100%. As expected, the EAF is requesting the logistical and maintenance support needed to operate these aircraft. The possibility exits for another C-130J purchase from the EAF before the production line closes. ¶6. (SBU) Combatant Commander's concurrence to the introduction of a new warfighting capability to the nation or region. Combatant Commander's concurrence will be provided separately. ¶7. (SBU) Anticipated reactions of the neighboring nations. There is no anticipated negative response from any neighboring country in the region. The C-130J is an unarmed aircraft used primarily for transporting goods and people. It poses no threat to any neighboring country. 8.(SBU) Assessment of the nation's ability to account for, safeguard, operate, maintain, and support the articles. The EAF has a history of being able account for, safeguard, operate, maintain, and support aircraft with respect to the fleet of 27 C-130H they currently posses. They already select and train the aircrew and maintainers for the C-130H. They operate from two different locations. They also have a depot capability for Programmed Depot Maintenance (PDM),with additional part and component repair abilities coming online routinely. They are also members in the Technical Coordination Groups (TCG),the C-130 users group, the Component Improvement Program (CIP),the International Engine Maintenance Program (IEMP). The EAF has also requested numerous stateside training teams to assist them in depot field repairs, avionics support, and other sustainability issues. There have been no complaints or concerns regarding the EAFs support of its other C-130s for the previous 25+ years, and as they continue to conform to the Total Package Approach, there is no reason to believe that they will not continue to fully support the C-130J program. ¶9. (SBU) Training required either in-country or in the United States and anticipated reactions resulting from the presence of U.S. trainers in country. A significant amount of both in-country and U.S. based training is required for this airframe purchase. All the aircrew and maintenance personnel would need to travel to the United States for initial training. Between 10-20 aircrew members and approximately 40 maintenance personnel would be required to support a purchase of 4 C-130Js. An Extended Training Services Support (ETSS) team is required. The training received in the United States is only preliminary training and must be followed up with extended in-country training via the ETSS. No negative reaction from any neighboring country with regards to the training would be expected. Egypt currently does extensive training in the United States. There are also several ETSS teams already in country, to include a constant presence since 1982 with the F-16 ETSS. ¶10. (SBU) Possible impact of any in-country U.S. presence that might be required as a result of providing the article. The impact of U.S. presence in Egypt is minimal. There is already a heavy American footprint in Egypt supporting the US weapon systems Egypt possesses. There are permanently assigned teams of long- and short-term contractors in-country already. At least one F-16 ETSS team has been in country since 1982. There has also been numerous Army TAFTs in country as well. The amount of US personnel required in country for the purchase of C-130J would be a small percentage of the overall footprint and go virtually unnoticed. ¶11. (SBU) Source of financing and the economic impact of the proposed acquisition. Egypt plans to use Foreign Military Financing to cover all the costs associated with the acquisition, transport, supply, infrastructure, and training for the purchase of the C-130Js. Egypt will only be able to make the purchase if the amortized payment schedule can fit within the FMF budget for Egypt. Further, Egypt will budget to fully cover the Total Package Approach for this acquisition and maintain the Total Package Approach for the other GoE programs. The ROM cost for this acquisition is approximately $500M over five to seven years on the initial cost. Follow on support costs start after initial purchase. ¶12. (SBU) Human rights considerations relevant to the proposed acquisition. None. ¶13. (SBU) A plan for end-use monitoring for sensitive and advanced warfighting technology and the SAO's plan for compliance verification. The Office of Military Cooperation (OMC) Egypt has a robust Golden Sentry Program. The Golden Sentry Program representative and Security Assistance Officer (SAO) responsible for the program will coordinate for the review and maintenance of required documentation. All parties will maintain serial number lists of all components within the inventory or transferred and will conduct the mandated inspections as required. This coordination will ensure that historical copies of all EUM inspection results and customer's physical security and accountability control plans remain on file. The Egyptian military currently has 27 C-130s in country. Egypt has maintained accountability and security of these aircraft without unauthorized loss, theft, or access to date. The GOE has expressed the willingness to meet U.S. guidelines for accountability and security of these new aircraft, and the Office of Military Cooperation will conduct End Use Monitoring of all required components if this request is approved. ¶14. (SBU) Recommendation whether the USG should approve transfer of the article and justification. The country team endorses the Egyptian procurement of 4 C-130J model aircraft. The C-130J is a robust, non-kinetic airframe that would enable the EAF the additional airlift it requires. This purchase would also better enable Egypt's ability to engage in coalition airlift operations as the number of other US allies, friends and partners who possess the C-130J increases. This provides inherent interoperability which benefits both the United States and the Government of Egypt. A split or reduced buy of this airframe is also supported. Additional aircraft can be purchased at a future date as the C-130J production line has no end date. The future airlift capabilities in Egypt depend on having a modern, robust fleet of aircraft that can fly internationally to be self-supporting and contribute to coalition efforts. The addition of these aircraft to the EAF fleet paves a way forward for interoperability with the US and other allies and creates potential operational readiness to support humanitarian or other crisis response actions.