AYMAN NOUR DISCUSSES HIS RELEASE, FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000393 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA; NSC FOR PASCUAL E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2029 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM EG SUBJECT: AYMAN NOUR DISCUSSES HIS RELEASE, FUTURE REF: CAIRO 300 Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart for Reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. KEY POINTS -- (C) On February 26, poloff met with former presidential candidate and opposition party leader Ayman Nour, who was released from an Egyptian prison on February 18, and his wife, Gameela Ismail. -- (C) Before Nour arrived, Ismail told poloff that on the day of his release, Nour spent two hours at State Security Investigations Service (SSIS) headquarters in Cairo where he spent two hours speaking to SSIS officials. Ismail believes Nour entered into a "gentleman's agreement" with SSIS to notify the GoE of his activities. -- (C) Ismail opined that the GoE released Nour because it wants "window dressing" to make a Gamal Mubarak 2011 presidential campaign look legitimate. -- (C) Nour expressed gratitude for all the U.S. Government had done for him, although he needs to put some distance between himself and the U.S. -- (C) Nour stressed the need to re-invigorate liberal political parties in Egypt and across the Middle East. ¶2. COMMENT -- (C) Nour appeared to be in excellent health. He received poloff warmly and appeared to be deeply grateful for the U.S.' efforts on his behalf. It is clear he intends to jump back into the political fray; Ismail's speculation that he will be able to do so because of a "gentleman's agreement" with the GoE is very plausible. BACKGROUND ¶3. (C) Ismail told poloff that she believes Nour entered into a "gentleman's agreement" during a two-hour meeting with SSIS officials on the day of his release. Ismail said that Nour has not told her what was said in the meeting, but she believes Nour agreed to give SSIS advance notice of his activities. She opined that Nour's release was motivated by the GoE's desire for "window dressing" for what she predicts will be Gamal Mubarak's campaign for president in 2011. She also said GoE security services have taken a "laid back" approach to her and her husband since Nour's release, noting that that Nour supporters were allowed to demonstrate in downtown Cairo, without government interference or intimidation, immediately after his release. ¶4. (C) As to Nour's future plans, Ismail said he hopes to travel to London to appear on the BBC television show Hard Talk and to seek medical treatment from specialists. She said that upon his release, security officials told Nour that he would not be allowed to travel until his full five-year prison sentence expired. Nonetheless, after Nour notified the Public Prosecutor of his desire to travel to London for medical treatment, she has received three telephone calls from "solicitous" Public Prosecutor's Office staff asking for copies of his medical records so that they could approve his travel. Ismail also told poloff that Nour had received congratulatory messages from several high-ranking ruling National Democratic Party officials, including Egyptian Shura Council speaker Safwat El Sherif. ¶5. (C) Nour then arrived and expressed gratitude for the Embassy and the U.S. Government's efforts to obtain his release from prison. He did, however, criticize recent U.S. Government statements as being not sufficiently supportive, but poloff reminded him that some remarks are better suited for private discussions. Nour readily agreed and reiterated his gratitude for the U.S. Government's efforts. He said, however, that, in the near term, he must put some distance between himself and the U.S. because "I did not leave prison to go to another prison." He added that "there are no restrictions on whom I can or cannot meet with," and suggested that a future meeting with a visiting Congressional delegation and the Ambassador would be "ideal." ¶6. (C) Turning to politics, Nour spoke passionately about the need to reinvigorate liberal political parties in Egypt and the Middle East. He said that in his childhood, Islamists were imprisoned by the GoE, but claimed that now the government arrests "more liberals than Islamists." (Note: In fact, arrests of Muslim Brotherhood members in Egypt far CAIRO 00000393 002 OF 002 outpace arrests of liberal politicians.) He also criticized Egypt's liberal opposition for its failings: divisions between parties with shared ideals; leadership struggles; and inability to cultivate popular support. He said that his mission will be to overcome these challenges and to revitalize the Ghad ("Tomorrow") Party that he formerly led. SCOBEY