EGIS CHIEF SOLIMAN AND U.S. AFRICA COMMAND DISCUSS SUDAN AND SOMALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 001787



SIPDIS



DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG, AF/E, NEA/ARP, PM/PPA



E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019

TAGS: PREL, SU, SO, EG

SUBJECT: EGIS CHIEF SOLIMAN AND U.S. AFRICA COMMAND DISCUSS

SUDAN AND SOMALIA



Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Matthew H. Tueller

for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).



1. (C) Key Points



-- Egyptian General Intelligence Services (EGIS) Chief Omar

Soliman told a senior African Command delegation that an

independent South Sudan would result in war and tribal

conflicts that would flood Egypt with refugees.



--Soliman suggested that either the U.S. and Egypt should

lobby for unity or the referendum should be postponed to

avoid the creation of a "failed state" in South Sudan.

Alternatively, Cairo is working to convince both Khartoum and

Juba that a two-thirds referendum majority should be required

for separation and all Southerners, including those in

Khartoum and the South Sudanese Diaspora, should be allowed

to participate in the referendum.



-- Soliman said Egyptian efforts to resolve the Darfur crisis

are aimed at improving Sudan-Chad relations, unifying Darfur

rebel groups, and addressing humanitarian concerns. Soliman

said a resolution to the crisis is "near."



-- On Somalia, Soliman said Egypt is working with Ethiopia

and the Arab League to support Shaykh Sharif and the TFG. The

Government of Egypt (GoE) is also engaging with Eritrea to

facilitate rapprochement between Shaykh Sharif and Shaykh

Aweys and to weaken the Al Shibaab. It also has plans to

assist with the reintegration of Puntland and Somaliland into

the country and address economic development issues to combat

piracy. End Summary.



2. (SBU) Egyptian General Intelligence Services (EGIS) Chief

Omar Soliman on September 7 told an Africa Command delegation

including Ambassador Vicki Huddleston, Deputy Assistant

Secretary of Defense (DASD) and Vice Admiral (VADM) Robert

Moeller, Deputy Commander of U.S. African Command, that

Egypt's primary concerns in Africa are Sudan, particularly

CPA issues and Darfur, and Somalia.



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Egyptian Plans for Encouraging the Unity of Sudan

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3. (C) Soliman expressed concern that the South Sudanese

leadership and people will vote for independence in January

2011 and do not understand the "consequences of separation."

Soliman asserted an independent South Sudan would result in

war that would flood Egypt with refugees as occurred during

the previous North-South civil war. He also stated the South

would be mired in tribal conflict because southern tribes

would not accept "Dinka domination" and a border would be

seen as an attempt to divide the Misseriya tribe and limit

access to traditional grazing lands. Soliman maintained that

South Sudan is not viable because it lacks essential

infrastructure such as roads, schools and hospitals, cannot

provide for its own security, is so corrupt that it has

squandered USD 7 billion in oil revenues since the CPA was

implemented, and would need to pay a large percentage of

future oil revenues to Kenya to guarantee access to the port

of Mombasa.



4. (C) Soliman suggested three options for avoiding a "failed

state" in South Sudan. He said the referendum could be

postponed for 4-6 years until the "capacity for statehood"

could be developed. Second, Soliman stated that the CPA could

be amended to give South Sudan autonomy for 10 years and

afterwards it could decide for federation or independence.

Finally, he suggested that Egypt and the U.S. could push

Southern leaders to support a unified Sudan. Soliman said it

was the responsibility of Southern Sudanese leaders to

educate the populace on the pros and cons of separation. He

said if Southern leaders pushed for unity, the people of

South Sudan would listen. He asked the USG to educate

Southern leaders on the dangers of separation and encourage

them to advocate for unity. In the event the referendum does

take place in 2011, Cairo is working to convince both

Khartoum and Juba that a two-thirds majority should be

required for separation from Sudan and that all Southerners,

including those in Khartoum and the South Sudanese Diaspora,

be allowed to participate in the referendum.



5. (C) DASD Huddleston told Soliman that the USG supports CPA

implementation and the South's right to self-determination in

the referendum. Huddleston added that these goals also



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require northern assistance, especially on development. She

stated that S/E Gration is working with the NCP and SPLM to

resolve outstanding CPA issues such as the census, elections,

border demarcation, wealth sharing, and the modalities of the

referendum to guarantee a "stable Sudan." Huddleston added

that these goals require northern assistance, especially on

development. She said that the new policy will address the

USG's strategy for Darfur and North and South Sudan.

Huddleston anticipated that the framework for U.S. policy

will reflect a commitment to carrying out the CPA so that the

referendum might take place as planned. The USG understands

Egypt's concerns about independence but is committed to the

CPA and referendum process.



6. (C) VADM Moeller asked Soliman what incentives the GoE and

Government of Sudan (GoS) were offering to encourage unity.

Soliman admitted the GoS has done nothing to build

infrastructure in the south. He stated that in March, Egypt

sent equipment to clear Nile aquatic plants and building

material to South Sudan, but the shipments were stuck in Port

Sudan "due to U.S. economic sanctions." Soliman said many in

the GoS no longer care about making unity attractive because

they are convinced the South will vote for secession.

Therefore, Khartoum is reticent to spend money or facilitate

development in the South, which needs to encourage unity. He

said the GoS would change its approach if the USG were

willing to engage with Southern leaders to promote unity.



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Darfur Resolution Near

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7. (C) Soliman stated that a resolution to the Darfur crisis

was only a matter of time. He said Egyptian efforts were

ongoing to improve Sudan-Chad relations, unify Darfur rebel

groups, and address humanitarian concerns. Soliman told the

delegation that Sudanese President Bashir is ready to comply

with a solution on Darfur, and he said Egypt hosted a special

envoy from Chadian President Deby on September 2-3 for

discussions on Sudan. The GoE pushed Chad to abandon support

for JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim, whom Soliman described as a

"radical Islamist," and enter peace negotiations with the

GoS. Soliman said Egypt, Libya, and Qatar were enjoying

success in unifying the demands of Darfuri groups so they

could participate in negotiations with the GoS in Doha. He

praised the efforts of S/E Gration at helping to address the

humanitarian issue in Darfur and stated the "Europeans" need

to do more to return to Darfur and provide assistance.

Soliman said peace in Darfur is near, but cautioned that

minor tribal conflicts are bound to occur in the future.



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The Egyptian Plan for Somalia

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8. (C) Soliman told the delegation that Egypt had a three

track plan for Somalia. Egypt is working with Ethiopia and

the Arab League to support Shaykh Sharif and the TFG,

engaging with Eritrea to facilitate rapprochement and weaken

the opposition, and has plans to assist with the

reintegration Puntland and Somaliland into the country and

address economic development issues to combat piracy.

According to Soliman, Egypt is training Somali police in

Djibouti and will do the same for the Somali Armed Forces.

Cairo has asked the African Union (AU) to increase its forces

in Somalia and change the mandate from peacekeeping to

protection of civilians and government. Soliman stated that

Egypt has had initial discussion with Eritrea on Somalia.

Soliman and FM Aboul Gheit plan to go to Asmara after UNGA to

open a dialogue with Eritrea officials on how to bring Shaykh

Dahir Aweys into the TFG. Soliman said Aweys is jealous of

Shaykh Sharif, but could be lured with the Vice Presidency.

He stated that Aweys would then be able to use his religious

credentials to convince Al Shibaab to support the government.

Soliman also said the GoE had asked the Saudi and Emirati

governments to control funds transferred from their countries

to Somalia as a way to weaken the position of Al Shibaab.



9. (C) Soliman said the key to the Egyptian plan was

convincing Eritrean President Afwerki to support Somali

reconciliation. The GoE told the Eritrean FM on August 27

Afwerki's participation in the plan could improve his

reputation and may help in obtaining Western assistance to

implement the ICJ decision on the Eritrean-Ethiopian border

dispute. Soliman said without Afwerki's participation Somalia

would remain the site of a proxy war between Eritrea and



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Ethiopia. He told the delegation that FM Aboul Gheit informed

Ethiopian President Meles of the plan during the September 1

AU meetings in Libya. According to Soliman, Meles encouraged

Egypt to try the plan, but warned Afwerki cannot be trusted

to do what he says. DASD Huddleston suggested that Egypt keep

the USG apprised of its efforts to promote an end to the

conflict in Somalia, especially their conversations with

President Afwerki.



10. (C) Soliman stated that piracy cannot be resolved unless

the international community addresses the lack of development

and economic opportunities in Somalia. Development funds,

funneled through the TFG, will legitimize the government and

allow them to exercise the control need to give people a

chance at a better life. Otherwise, he said Somalia will be

the "new site" for Al Qaeda and radicalism. Soliman said

Puntland and Somaliland need to be reunified with the

"motherland." He stated both autonomous governments are

making money from piracy and have no interest in shutting

down the pirates.

11. DASD Huddleston and VADM Moeller cleared this cable.

Scobey