NDP INSIDER: MILITARY WILL ENSURE TRANSFER OF POWER

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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001468

SIPDIS

NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2029

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, EG

SUBJECT: NDP INSIDER: MILITARY WILL ENSURE TRANSFER OF POWER

REF: 08 CAIRO 2091

Classified By: Economic-Political Minister-Counselor Donald A. Blome

for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. KEY POINTS

-- (S) NDP insider and former minister Dr. Ali El Deen Hilal

Dessouki dismissed public and media speculation about

succession. He said Egyptian military and security services

would ensure a smooth transfer of power, even to a civilian.

-- (S) Dessouki called opposition parties weak and democracy

a "long term goal." He said that the MB had no legitimate

political role, adding that mixing religion and politics in

Egypt was not wise and would not be permitted.

2. (S) Comment: Dessouki is an NDP insider who has held a

number of key positions. His assurances that the Egyptian

military and security services would ensure a smooth

succession to a civilian (by implication Gamal Mubarak) were

unusually straightforward and blunt. The idea that the

military remains a key political and economic force is

conventional wisdom here. However, other observers tell us

that the military has grown less influential, more fractured

and its leadership weaker in recent years (reftel). They

suggest that in a succession scenario in which President

Mubarak is no longer present, outcomes are less predictable.

End comment.

3. (S) On July 22, PolOff met with National Democratic Party

(NDP) Media Secretary, and member of the influential NDP

Policies Committee Dr. Ali El Deen Hilal Dessouki. Without

prompting, he offered newly-arrived PolOff advice on how to

approach political issues in Egypt. He counseled PolOff not

to "run around" town asking questions about Egypt's next

leader, suggesting that most offered only opinions not facts.

He said that this kind of wide-ranging engagement "by our

friends" demonstrated a certain "naivete." Dessouki

suggested that PolOff also steer clear of the many

uncorroborated reports and misguided analysis in the local

media. He also underscored a common NDP refrain that Egypt's

opposition political parties were weak and self-serving.

4. (S) Dr. Dessouki's most important message, he said was to

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always keep in mind that "the real center of power in Egypt

is the military," a reference he said included all security

forces. Dessouki noted that while the military did not

intervene directly in matters of day to day governance, it

leaders were determined to maintain order and that the

importance of a "legal transition" should not be

underestimated. Dessouki did acknowledge that the military

is concerned about maintaining its "corporate interests," but

was emphatic in his declaration of their commitment to a

"constitutional" transition of power. Dessouki went on to

say that the military has "no objection to a civilian" as the

next president (a remark that can be interpreted as a pointed

reference to Gamal Mubarak). Dessouki then reiterated that

the NDP has not yet selected its candidate for the 2011

presidential elections (a point Gamal Mubarak himself has

made to us).

5. (S) Dessouki acknowledged there would be some violence

around the upcoming 2010 parliamentary and 2011 presidential

elections, but suggested security forces would be able to

keep it under control. Widespread politically-motivated

unrest, he said, was not likely because it was not part of

the "Egyptian mentality." Threats to daily survival, not

politics, were the only thing to bring Egyptians to the

streets en masse. Dessouki said the NDP focus on economic

reform would continue up to the elections and after any

transition of power. He added that Egypt was moving towards

democracy, but that a transition from a "pharoanic" political

system would take a long time.

6. (S) Disdainful of its political import, Dessouki said the

Muslim Brotherhood (MB) was not a credible political

organization. As evidence of their pure self-interest, he

cited the MB's refusal to "integrate" and become a part of

the mainstream political process despite invitations from the

last three Egyptian presidents. Dessouki referred to recent

arrests of MB members (septel) as evidence they operated

extra-legally. (Note: Separately, on July 26 Dessouki

publically denied press reports that the NDP is pursuing a

deal with the MB that would promise an end to the arrests in

exchange for a stop to MB "internal and external" activities.

End note.) Dessouki warned that because Egyptians are very

religious people, politics and religion is a volatile mix.

In a more strident tone, Dessouki went on to say that he, and

President Mubarak, "would not tolerate" the existence of

CAIRO 00001468 002 OF 002

political parties with a religious agenda whether Muslim or

Christian and suggested that there was no such thing as a

"moderate Islamist."

Tueller

NDP INSIDER: MILITARY WILL ENSURE TRANSFER OF POWER

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