RAMPING UP PRESSURE ON THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 001467 SIPDIS NEA/ELA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2029 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KTER KJUS EG SUBJECT: RAMPING UP PRESSURE ON THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN EGYPT: RECENT ARRESTS REF: CAIRO 1447 Classified By: Economic-Political Minister Counselor Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. Key Points: -- (C) High profile arrests of members of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) have continued to pick up speed since May. Most recently, three MB-affiliated bloggers critical of government tactics against the MB, including the wave of arrests, have been detained themselves. -- (C) MB attempts at public vigils in support of the detainees have been shut down by security services. The MB has demanded the immediate release of six detainees for medical reasons. The highest profile detainee, Guidance Council member Dr. Abdel-Moneim Abou El-Fotouh, has been hospitalized. -- (C) Accusations behind the arrests include participation in an international MB conspiracy that seeks to reach power by "force" as well as money laundering to support that effort. MB leaders fervently dispute any association with terrorist activity. -- (C) The arrests are likely part of the regime's early election preparations as well as an effort to fracture the MB internally in the lead up to the election of a new Supreme Guide in December 2009. ¶2. (S) Comment: As the 2010 parliamentary and 2011 presidential elections draw near, the GOE is ratcheting up pressure on the MB. The strategy of targeting those that Egyptian analysts consider "moderate" MBs like El-Fotouh could push the MB in a more hardline direction, moving it away from the political engagement strategy favored by moderates. Radicalization might also serve the GoE's short-term interest in relieving outside pressure to reform. End Comment. ¶3. (SBU) On June 28, State Security Investigative Services (SSIS) arrested Muslim Brotherhood (MB) Guidance Council Member and Secretary General of the Arab Doctors Union Dr. Abdel-Moneim Abou el-Fotouh along with 6 others. Abou El-Fotouh is the third MB Guidance Council member to be arrested since May. Five of the 22 members of the MB Guidance Council are now in prison. (Two of them were convicted in military courts in 2008 -- see para 9). The most recent arrests have occurred in stages over the past ten weeks. Guidance Council member Osama Nasr was the first to be arrested along with 12 other members on May 14. The arrest of Guidance Council member Dr. Mahmoud Hussein and ten others followed on June 19. Dr. Gamal Adbul Salem of the Egyptian Doctors Union, Currency Exchange owner Ossama Soliman and four other MB members were among those arrested July 28 with Abou el-Fotouh. ¶4. (C) No formal charges have been filed against this group of approximately 33 MB figures. The detentions were ordered under an "investigative memo" issued by the State Security Prosecutor (SSP). The "memo" allows any suspect to be held from 15 days to six months, with an extension to 12 months at the discretion of the Public Prosecutor. Press reports indicate that the latest 15-day extension was issued on July ¶25. The allegations under investigation include creating an international organization to "propagate" MB thinking (in the Middle East and Europe) in order to arrive at power "by force" and with the aim of "establishing a Caliphate." The memo also alleges the laundering of funds from outside Egypt to support domestic MB activities, the diversion of funds raised for Palestinian relief efforts to MB activities in Egypt, as well as membership in a banned organization. The "investigation memo" also implicates Guidance Council members Saad Al Husseiny and MB Member of Parliament and MB bloc leader in the People's Assembly Dr. Saad Katatni. ¶5. (C) The MB has uniformly dismissed the accusations as false. Phoning into an Al-Jazeera talk show at the time of El-Fotouh's arrest, MB Supreme Guide Mohammed Mehdi Akef said that the "Egyptian regime has lost its mind, logic, wisdom and respect for the law." In a posting on Ikhwanweb, an English-language website not officially run by the MB but often used as a vehicle for official releases by the group, Dr. Mahmoud Ezzat, Secretary General of the MB, called the attempts to connect the MB to terrorism outrageous and said that evidence had been fabricated. The MB arrests have led to several attempted protests or vigils on the steps of the press syndicate, commonly used as a location to stage protests. In each instance, security was out in force, outnumbering protestors. In a July 28 press conference, head of the Arab Doctor's Union humanitarian relief committee, Dr. Ibrahim el Zafarani called El-Fotouh's detention damaging to Egypt's regional "role" and its "image." ¶6. (C) Dr. El-Fotouh remains in custody. After some controversy, El-Fotouh was transferred to a private hospital on July 12 where he remains for treatment of complications from persistent health problems (apnea and diabetes). MB lawyers have petitioned the Administrative Court for his release on medical grounds. Press reports on July 26 indicate that the Prosecutor visited El-Fotouh in the hospital but no decision to release him has been issued. (Note: Arrested in 1995 with 61 other MB leaders, Abou El-Fotouh served a five-year sentence for attempting to overthrow the regime. End Note.) ¶7. (C) In the view of lawyer and Shura Council member Reggai Attia, it is likely that the group will remain in detention while under investigation. Their cases will then be transferred to a military court after what Attia called a "decent amount of time" in order to suggest a fair and open legal process. (Note: Although not MB himself, Attia has defended MB members on several occasions. He does not represent any of the current detainees. End note.) ¶8. (C) In the meantime, other arrests continue, including the detention of three young, MB-affiliated bloggers July 22 (reftel). Contacts have told us all three bloggers remain in detention. Ikhwanweb announced the released of one blogger July 28, but that has not been confirmed. There have been other reports of arrests of MB members throughout Egypt including the July 21 arrest of 11 camp counselors participating, according to MB press releases, in a scouting event in Alexandria. ¶9. (C) Two other MB Guidance Council members remain in prison on separate charges. Dr. Mohammed Ali Beshr, former Secretary General of the Engineers Syndicate was sentenced by the military courts in April 2008. Detained since 2006, Beshr and 12 others detained at the same time have served three-quarters of their sentences. Despite an Administrative Court decision to release all 13 for time served, a standard early-release procedure, the MOI has not implemented the ruling. Thus far the MOI has argued successfully that the Administrative Court did not take into account the threat to national security of such a release. MB lawyers can appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court, which could take up the case in the fall. MB Guidance Council member Khayrat El Shatr, often noted as a moderate contender for Supreme Guide after Akef (despite his current detention),was arrested in 2006 and sentenced to seven years in April 2008. He is not yet eligible for early release. ¶10. (S) Embassy contacts see the arrests as part of a GOE plan to weaken the MB before the PA elections. This applies particularly to the arrest of El-Fotouh, who is viewed as key to internal MB election preparations. Many of these new MB detainees, and El-Fotouh in particular, are widely viewed as the moderate members of the Guidance Council. Al-Ahram Center analyst and MB expert Khalil Al Anany called the arrests a "grave escalation" of GOE efforts against the MB. Al Anany warns that the political isolation of the MB could leave room for new and more radical Islamist movements. Anany and his colleague at Al-Ahram, fellow specialist on Islamist movements in Egypt Amr Choubaki, both believe the arrests of moderates are part of a carefully planned regime effort to radicalize and thus marginalize the MB. Al Anany further suggests turmoil in the organization will have the added benefit to the regime of keeping the current Supreme Guide in place, thus keeping the "devil they know." According to Choubaki, Akef is committed to leaving his post, if only to force an end to internal discord on the organization's future. Both agree any successor will be Egyptian. ¶11. (S) Al Anany and Choubaki tell us they doubt the existence of an internationally organized MB movement, suggesting any international ties are likely better defined as a loose network of affiliated groups which vary in organizational strength and ideology. They also doubt the ability of any one group to dominate any element of this loose network. Essam Soltan, lawyer, former MB, and co-founder of the Al Wasat party, rejected the idea that Cairo exerted any control on other MB "chapters." Soltan called it ironic that whatever network now exists is due to the efforts of MBs exiled from Egypt in the 1990's to remain relevant at home. He added that following September 11, 2001 the MB understood that those ties could be "misinterpreted." On the money-laundering charges, Essam said he understood that there had been a transfer of funds from Lebanon to an Egyptian businessman affiliated with the MB that was not properly reported to banking authorities. He could not say if this money was part of a business transaction or support for MB election activities. However, he noted that such support would not be unusual. Soltan had no information on the re-direction of funds raised to support humanitarian efforts in Gaza. Tueller