SUDAN: SLA-MINAWI ADVOCATES FOR CONTINUING U.S. ROLE IN DARFUR

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001352

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2019

TAGS: PREL, SU, CD, EG

SUBJECT: SUDAN: SLA-MINAWI ADVOCATES FOR CONTINUING U.S.

ROLE IN DARFUR

REF: A. CAIRO 1306

B. CAIRO 470

C. CAIRO 339

Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs

Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C) Key Points:

-- Abdo Hashim Ali, Foreign Affairs Advisor to Sudanese

Government and Darfur rebel leader Minni Minawi, praised the

"John Kerry Initiative" to bring new NGOs to Darfur and is

"satisfied" with the efforts of S/E Gration to obtain a

ceasefire in Darfur. He hoped for additional steps, but

encouraged the USG to be more inclusive and not engage with

the JEM to the exclusion of all other factions.

-- Ail believes the efforts of former Sudanese PM Al Sadiq Al

Mahdi to unify the Sudanese opposition to the NCP will not

succeed because Al Mahdi is "not a problem solver." SLA

Minawi hopes to open its office in Egypt by the end of July

2009.

-- The Government of Egypt (GoE) is helping improve the

humanitarian situation in Darfur, and should finish the

digging of 30 wells in Darfur by the end of the month. Egypt

also promised to dig 40 more wells, provide humanitarian aid,

and educational scholarships for IDPs to study in Egypt.

Egyptian medical convoys expanded the capacity and presence

of "good" medical services in Darfur, but provision of

services is "inconsistent" because teams deploy for only one

to two month stints.

-- SLA-Minawi rejects the Sudan census and plans to boycott

April 2010 elections unless the basis for electoral

representation changes.

2. (C) Comment: Minawi regrets signing the Abuja Agreement

with the Government of Sudan (GoS) because he has never been

integrated into the Government of National Unity. He wants

his wing of the SLA to be included in future negotiations on

Darfur. The establishment of a permanent office in Cairo is

an attempt to gain a regional ally in pursuit of this goal.

End Comment.

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U.S. Initiatives Welcomed, but No Bilateral Agreements

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3. (C) Abdo Hashim Ali told us on July 7 that SLA-Minawi

welcomed USG initiatives on Sudan. He praised the "John

Kerry Initiative" to bring new NGOs to Darfur to fill the

capacity left by the 13 expelled NGOs. He hoped that there

would be more similar steps forthcoming. Ali is "satisfied"

with the efforts of S/E Gration to obtain a ceasefire in

Darfur, but he told us that Minawi is concerned that the U.S.

is "engaging with the JEM to the exclusion of all other

factions." He said that the focus on the JEM sent the

message to other factions that if they fight, they will be

rewarded by the USG with similar benefits. Ali stated that

there should be "no bilateral solutions to Darfur." He told

us that Chadian President Deby is not interested in a deal

with Sudan, and pointed to Deby's absence from the AU Summit

as evidence that N'djamena was not committed to an agreement.

Ali encouraged continued U.S. engagement despite the lack of

tangible progress. He said that Darfuri groups feared that

S/E Gration was now focusing on South Sudan and not Darfur.

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Al Mahdi not a Problem Solver

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4. (C) Ali said that former Sudanese PM Imam Al Sadiq Al

Mahdi was working to unify theSudanese opposition to the NCP

Government and bunish his credentials as the leader of the

Umma Paty. He said the Umma Party agreement with the JEM

was a step in Al Mahdi's plan (reftel A). Ali aserted that

the deal was important for JEM because the group "wants to

become the SPLM of Darfur" and represent the region in all

agreements. He said that SLA-Minawi had seen a proposed

Umma-SPLM initiative and was expecting to receive its own

document from Al Mahdi. However, Ali believes that Al

Mahdi's initiatives will fail because the "Imam is good at

networking, but not at problem-solving.

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Egyptian Contribution Valued

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CAIRO 00001352 002 OF 002

5. (C) Ali told us that the SLA-Minawi valued working with

the GoE. He stated that the GoE would finish digging 30

wells in Darfur by the end of the month, and had promised to

dig 40 more wells, provide humanitarian aid, and educational

scholarships for IDPs to study in Egypt. Ali stated that

Egyptian medical convoys supported by the Arab Doctor's Union

had expanded the capacity and presence of medical services in

Darfur. He said that quality of care was "good," but the

provision of medical services was "inconsistent" as medical

teams would only deploy for one to two month stints. Ali told

us that SLA-Minawi had still not opened its Cairo office

because Mohamed Nour, who was named office director, had to

clear up business issues in Saudi Arabia before relocating to

Cairo (reftels B-C). He hoped that the office would be open

by the end of July 2009.

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Darkness Ahead

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6. (C) Ali said that Minni Minawi sees "only darkness ahead

for Sudan." He told us that SLA-Minawi rejects the Sudan

census as the basis for the April 2010 elections. Ali stated

that "Darfuri groups will not be held hostage to the Naivasha

agreement," and they plan to boycott the elections unless the

basis for electoral representation changes. He thought that

Umma Party and JEM would also boycott the election because

they had declared the government to be illegitimate. Ali

said that a decision to use the 1993 census and estimate

population growth until 2010 could convince Darfuri groups to

participate in the electoral process. He believed that if

elections are held there must be international observers to

guarantee fairness or there will be a repeat of events in

Iran or Zimbabwe.

SCOBEY

SUDAN: SLA-MINAWI ADVOCATES FOR CONTINUING U.S. ROLE IN DARFUR

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