GENERAL PETRAEUS' MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUBARAK

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001351 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019 TAGS: PREL PARM MASS IR IZ KPAL IS AF PK EG SUBJECT: GENERAL PETRAEUS' MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUBARAK Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey per 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. Key Points: -- (S/NF) During a June 29 meeting with CENTCOM Commander General Petraeus, President Mubarak shared his views on Iraq, Afghanistan/Pakistan, Iran, Palestinian reconciliation, and counter smuggling. -- (S/NF) On Iraq, General Petraeus thanked Mubarak for naming a new Egyptian Ambassador to Iraq. Mubarak expressed concern over the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraqi cities. -- (S/NF) Mubarak warned against trusting the Iranian government and said the current turmoil represented a "crack" in the Iranian power structure. He relayed concerns that Iran wanted to establish "pockets" of influence in Egypt. -- (S/NF) On Syria, Mubarak advocated for bringing Syria back to the Arab fold, but doubted that the Syrian government would completely sever its links with Iran. He also stressed the importance of solving the "Iranian problem" in order to promote stability in Lebanon. -- (S/NF) Mubarak said Egypt has been "very active" in countering arms smuggling to Gaza, outlining Egyptian efforts to gather intelligence on smuggling networks and improve security along the Egypt-Gaza border. -------------- Iraq -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) General Petraeus thanked President Mubarak for naming a new Egyptian Ambassador to Iraq. Mubarak expressed concern that U.S. forces were pulling out of Iraqi cities. General Petraeus explained that U.S. troops would remain in coordination centers throughout the country and could re-engage if necessary to support Iraqi security forces. Mubarak opined that Iraq needs a strong leader, believing that democracy had already failed and would never work in Iraq. General Petraeus replied that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki must demonstrate he can be a fair leader for all Iraqis, and expressed guarded optimism for Iraq's future given the reduction in violence and Iraq's economic potential. -------------- Afghanistan and Pakistan -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) General Petraeus said he was encouraged by the Pakistani military's recent progress against the Taliban, including their first "competent" campaign in the Swat Valley against extremists. Mubarak noted there are many extremists in Pakistan, most of which were "Muslim Brothers." ¶4. (S/NF) Mubarak warned that the U.S. should be "very careful" with its troop buildup in Afghanistan. General Petraeus stressed that the U.S. and Egypt must be partners in supporting stability in Afghanistan, noting that improving governance was the greatest challenge. Mubarak was curious if Afghan President Karzai would run again in the August presidential elections. He mentioned that Egypt used to have "very good" communication with the "sheikhs" in Afghanistan, which produced good intelligence, but noted those links no longer existed. -------------- Iran -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) General Petraeus expressed U.S. concerns over Iran, noting that Iranian actions were pushing the Gulf states toward greater cooperation with the U.S., including increased Patriot missile deployment and improved F-16 capability in the United Arab Emirates. Mubarak provided his standard warning on engaging with Iran, saying "do not trust them. They will not do what they say." "Religious governments do not last," Mubarak continued, asserting that the present turmoil represented a "crack" in the Iranian power structure and predicted that factions within the government would "work hard against each other." ¶6. (S/NF) Mubarak said that two separate Iranian delegations had tried to persuade him to recognize their government. Mubarak believed Iran wanted to establish "pockets" of influence inside Egypt. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will not accept a nuclear Iran, Mubarak asserted, adding that "Israel has a plan, it seems" to use military action against Iran, which Mubarak believed the U.S. would be forced to CAIRO 00001351 002 OF 002 support. ¶7. (S/NF) On Syria, Mubarak said the Syrian government should be persuaded to be "more flexible," but stressed that "it will take time" for Syria to return to the Arab fold. He doubted that Syria could be "completely" pried away from Iran and asserted that much of the funding Syria receives comes from Qatar. Mubarak voiced his distrust of the Qataris, claiming they had channeled hundreds of millions of dollars to Lebanon and Libya, and lesser amounts to Chad and Sudan. Mubarak shared that King Abdullah of Jordan had told him Syria was causing trouble in Jordan, which Egypt was "helping" Jordan address. Mubarak also said that Iran and Hezbollah were "spoiling" Lebanon and emphasized that progress in Lebanon depended on "solving the Iranian problem" first. -------------- Counter Smuggling, Palestinian Reconciliation -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) Mubarak said Egypt had been "very active" in trying to halt arms smuggling to Gaza. He reviewed Egyptian efforts to collect intelligence on smuggling and reiterated his long-standing belief that many of the arms entered Gaza from "the sea." Mubarak outlined Egyptian efforts to combat smuggling through the tunnels along the Egypt-Gaza border, including the construction of a subterranean steel wall. "We are trying" to stop arms smuggling, Mubarak stressed. ¶9. (S/NF) Mubarak said Palestinian reconciliation will take time, and must be approached "one step at a time." He claimed Syria and Qatar were interfering with Egyptian efforts, including by offering Hamas $50 million to keep captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit captive. Mubarak said he advised Israeli Defense Minister Barak to "keep the Shalit issue quiet." -------------- Biographical Note -------------- ¶10. (S/NF) Mubarak was alert and talkative throughout the meeting, which lasted over an hour. He appeared to be in good health. ¶11. (U) General Petraeus cleared this cable. SCOBEY