BUYOYA: PROSPECTS FOR PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000465 E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV BY SUBJECT: BUYOYA: PROSPECTS FOR PEACE REF: BUJUMBURA 462 (NOTAL) Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CHARLES H. TWINING FOR REASON 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) A discussion with former President Pierre Buyoya September 9 about the turbulent history of the past elicited his thoughts about the present and future of his country. In a word, he is optimistic. Buyoya, looking fit and younger than his sixty years, said that until he came on the scene the conventional wisdom was that Burundi had no ethnic problem, and predecessor President Bagaza did not want the words Tutsi and Hutu mentioned. This was completely unrealistic, and the lack of open discussion about it only made things worse when tensions arose. He felt he had made a start in 1988 when he created a commission, fifty percent Hutu and fifty percent Tutsi, to consider the question of national unity. Unfortunately, any dialogue begun was ruined with the assassination of one President in 1993 and the death of the next in the airplane crash with the Rwandan President the following year, both incidents setting off all the killing here. ¶2. (C) Buyoya is convinced that the ethnic issue has run its course. The success of the Arusha process and subsequent incorporation of ethnic quotas for government bodies in the 2005 constitution have completely defused the issue. Despite some saying that ethnic quotas should be removed, this would be absolutely the wrong move, the former President insisted. He said they give confidence to all that their interests will be protected. Any future change would have to be initiated in the Senate, where he sits as a past President, and where ethnic quotas are mandated. ¶3. (C) Asked about prospects for a calm election period, the former President predicted there could well be violence if the elections are anything but absolutely free and fair, leaving a sense among the other candidates of having been robbed of victory. If violence is to be avoided, there must be an independent Electoral Commission, a respected Electoral Code, and transparent government support for the process. If there is violence, it will come after the election, and it will be politically, not ethnically, motivated. He said twice that the country remains quite fragile. ¶4. (C) President Buyoya believes the ongoing debate about various aspects of the electoral process (reftel) is a healthy one, out of which should come a consensus about how it should best be organized. He said he has been working the issue in three meetings with the Senate President and in attending Senate sessions. We asked whether he remains in contact with President Nkurunziza and various party leaders in order to give them the benefit of his experience, and he said yes. ¶5. (C) Comment. The former President departed the country later September 9 to reengage on the Darfur peace process as part of the AU wisemen's committee, including a September 13 meeting with Ambassador Gration, then to Bangui in his role as facilitator of the reconciliation process. From our narrow point of view, it is a pity that he leaves now, as his voice -- and vote -- in the Senate would be useful later in the week when the Electoral Code is likely to be considered there. Asked whether rumors suggesting he may well be a Presidential candidate in next year's election have a basis, he said others have also asked him that. He has been President twice, and that is quite enough, Buyoya observed. Twining