GUIDE TO BURUNDI'S REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000416 NAIROBI PLEASE PASS TO AMBASSADOR SLUTZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV EAID BY SUBJECT: GUIDE TO BURUNDI'S REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTIES Classified By: CDA Charles Twining for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. This is a quick reference resource on Burundi's active political parties. There are 43 registered parties in Burundi, but only 15 are presently active. END SUMMARY. KEY POLITICAL PARTIES -------------- ¶2. (C) Conseil National pour la Defense de la Democratie - Forces pour la Defense de la Democratie (CNDD-FDD) - Ruling Party - Predominantly Hutu; founded in 1994 as a rebel movement. - CNDD-FDD signed a cease-fire agreement with the government of Burundi in December 2002 and registered as a political party in January 2005. - 2005 Elections: CNDD-FDD won 67.3% of the Senate and 54.2% of the National Assembly. It also won the presidency when the parliament elected Pierre Nkurunziza to the position. - 2010 Elections: President Nkurunziza is widely assumed to be CNDD-FDD's 2010 presidential candidate, although this is not yet official. At present, Nkurunziza is the only political figure with a viable chance of wining, in part due to CNDD-FDD's well-oiled political machine and in part because no other party's presidential candidate has the popularity or name recognition of Nkurunziza. CNDD-FDD as a party, however, is expected to lose parliamentary seats in the coming election; its popularity, while still high compared to other parties, has waned in many provinces, primarily due to the population's disappointment in CNDD-FDD's unfulfilled political promises. ¶3. (C) Conseil National pour la Defense de la Democratie (CNDD) - Predominantly Hutu, but seems to desire an ethnicity-free identity. - After being dismissed from CNDD-FDD in 1998, party founder Leonard Nyangoma continued to claim the name "CNDD-FDD." However, the government required that he form a new party with a new name, so he called it "CNDD." It was registered in January 2005 and is not connected to the ruling CNDD-FDD party. - Nyangoma is one of the most outspoken and articulate of the opposition political leaders. In addition, his historic role as founder of CNDD-FDD, as well as his renowned intellect give him a high stature in Burundi's political landscape. - 2005 Elections: In 2005, CNDD won 10.2% of the Senate and 3.3% of the National Assembly. �A;- 2010 Elections: CNDD has not yet declared a presidential candidate, but experienced political observers expect Nyangoma will be the party's 2010 candidate. Party prospects are unknown, but Nyangoma's presidential prospects are quite limited. Nyangoma and the CNDD could have influence, however, by throwing support to another party, probably FRODEBU. ¶4. (C) Front for Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU) - Predominantly Hutu. - 2005 Elections: In 2005, FRODEBU won 14.2% of the Senate and 25.4% of the National Assembly. - 2010 Elections: FRODEBU's presidential candidate is former President of Burundi Domitien Ndayizeye. FRODEBU is a solid member of the opposition political scene, but is not believed to be strong enough alone to unseat CNDD-FDD. Political experts state that FRODEBU needs, and will likely seek, a coalition in order to gain enough votes to win the presidency as well as a significant number of seats in parliament. ¶5. (C) Union for National Progress (UPRONA) - Traditionally identified as the Tutsi party. - UPRONA has a breakaway wing of the same name. The hard-line faction split in opposition to the 2000 Arusha Accords, asserting that no negotiations should occur with those who committed genocide against Tutsis. The GoB recognizes the original UPRONA party, not the splinter wing. - On August 2, UPRONA held a party congress to elect new leaders and further reunification efforts. Bonaventure Niyoyankana (baby brother of the Minister of Defense),a Tutsi from the GoB recognized wing, was elected president and Concilie Nibigira, a Hutu of the splinter wing, was elected the party's vice president. Political observers consider this internal election a significant step toward reunification as well as a good example of how parties can conduct fair and peaceful internal elections. - 2005 Elections: In 2005, UPRONA won 6.1% of the Senate and 12.7% of the National Assembly. - 2010 Elections: UPRONA has not declared a 2010 presidential candidate. UPRONA will likely win parliamentary seats again in the coming elections, but observers do not expect the party to be competitive for the presidency. As a mostly Tutsi party in a majority-Hutu country, competing with strong Hutu-dominated parties, UPRONA has no real chance of winning a majority vote for the presidential seat. ¶6. (C) Forces Nationales de Liberation (FNL) (formerly Palipehutu-FNL) - Predominantly Hutu; founded in 1980 as a political movement. Its armed branch was created in 1983. - FNL signed the final cease-fire implementation agreement in December 2008. The GoB registered FNL as a political party in April 2009 after FNL leadership finally agreed to drop the "palipehutu" (Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People) from the party's name. Ethnic references are banned by constitutional prohibition. - 2005 Elections: In 2005, FNL was not a registered political party. - 2010 Elections: The FNL has not declared a 2010 presidential candidate, but FNL party president Agathon Rwasa often speaks as if he is the candidate. FNL's prospects for the elections are difficult to gauge considering they became a political party just months ago. While FNL has support throughout the countryside, it does not have political experience, nor can it match the CNDD-FDD's party machinery. ¶7. (C) Union Pour la Democratie (UPD) Zigamibanga - Predominantly Hutu, but working hard to attract Tutsi support. - While CNDD-FDD's head of ideology and propaganda, Hussein Radjabu created UPD as a surreptitious, strategic alternative party, in case the GoB did not register CNDD-FDD. Radjabu planned to use UPD as CNDD-FDD's political arm and had UPD registered in 2002, but when CNDD-FDD was registered in 2005, UPD became unnecessary and then inactive. - Radjabu went on to be president of CNDD-FDD and kingmaker of Nkurunziza, but in February 2007, he was expelled from CNDD-FDD and subsequently imprisoned for plotting to overthrow the government. Radjabu then reactivated UPD, installing his cousin Mohamed Feruzi as party president. - 2005 Elections: UPD was not active in 2005. - 2010 Elections: UPD is swiftly growing in popularity in the interior. Radjabu runs the party from jail and is an experienced, no-holds-barred political operator. UPD has not yet declared a presidential candidate; party representatives informed PolOff that they have a candidate, but are "not ready" to release his or her name. Post expects UPD to do well in elections for the National Assembly. The party's prospects for the presidential election, however, remain as unknown as its candidate. ¶8. (C) Mouvement pour la Solidarite et la Democratie (MSD) - MSD's founders are Hutu, but party president Alexis Sinduhije is a Tutsi. The party's platform includes overcoming ethnic conflict and division. - The government registered MSD on June 8, 2009, after more than a year of delays. The GoB reportedly delayed the registration out of fear that Sinduhije will use his influence effectively against the ruling party in the upcoming elections. - 2005 Elections: In 2005, MSD did not exist. - 2010 Elections: Sinduhije, well-known former journalist and manager of a popular radio station, is the presumed presidential candidate, but has stated that he wishes to create a primary process within his party to nominate the presidential candidate. Sinduhije's prospects as presidential candidate are limited. He has support among the intelligentsia and in Bujumbura, but it is said that he does not yet resonate with the general populace in Burundi's interior. MSD's prospects for winning parliamentary seats are unknown. Since MSD is so closely identified with Sinduhije, it is difficult to assess the popularity of MSD as a party. As with Sinduhije himself, MSD's message and approach seem to connect with the well-educated elite rather than the majority of Burundi's population. ACTIVE BUT MINOR POLITICAL PARTIES -------------- ¶9. (U) ABASA (African-Burundian Alliance for Salvation) - Registered in July 1993; predominantly Tutsi. - Although the party has few members, its leader, Ambassador Terence Nsanze, remains vocal on all hot issues. ¶10. (U) ADR (Democratic Alliance for Revival) - Registered in August 2008 by a splinter that broke away from the ruling CNDD-FDD party. - Strength and popularity are not yet known. ¶11. (U) CDP (Council of Patriots) - Registered in March 2009; predominantly Hutu. - Strength and popularity are not yet known. ¶12. (C) FRODEBU Nyakuri ("The Real" FRODEBU) - Predominantly Hutu. - In 2007, prominent FRODEBU member Dr. Jean Minani created this faction and called it FRODEBU Nyakuri. The GoB registered it in 2008, allowing FRODEBU Nyakuri use of the name and symbols of the main FRODEBU party. Reports indicate that the ruling party fostered the FRODEBU split after Hussein Radjabu's February 2007 ouster from CNDD-FDD led to CNDD-FDD losing its majority in the National Assembly. - FRODEBU Nyakuri is believed to support the ruling party. ¶13. (C) MRC (Movement for the Rehabilitation of Citizens) Rurenzangemero - Registered in November 2002; predominantly Tutsi. - It is believed that Epitace Bayaganakandi (who was Minister of Interior during the height of the civil war and also formerly Minister of Transportation) created the party to represent Tutsis who are not from Burundi's southern provinces, particularly Bururi province. Burundi's ruling Tutsis have predominantly come from the southern provinces. - In the 2005 elections, MRC won two seats in the National Assembly. MRC has stated that it is "in the opposition" and is promising to participate in the 2010 elections. ¶14. (U) PARENA (Party for National Recovery) - Registered in August 1994; predominantly Tutsi. - Founded by former President of Burundi Jean-Baptiste Bagaza. - PARENA adopted a very low profile after performing poorly in the 2005 elections. However, Bagaza has started to speak out again. ¶15. (U) PTD-Twungurunani (Party of Workers and Democracy) - Registered in April 2008; limited to union activists. - PTD is just beginning to become active; its strength and popularity are not yet known. ¶16. (U) RADEBU (Union of Democrats for Development in Burundi) - Jean de Dieu Mutabazi, formerly a prominent member of FRODEBU, created the RADEBU splinter party. The GoB registered RADEBU in 2007. It has historically supported the CNDD-FDD but has not been very active recently. - Strength and popularity are not known. Twining