MINISTER OF INTERIOR PLAYS WITH ELECTORAL CODE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000339 LONDON, PARIS, PLEASE PASS TO AF WATCHERS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USAID BRIAN STOUT AND JULIE CICCARONE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM BY SUBJECT: MINISTER OF INTERIOR PLAYS WITH ELECTORAL CODE REF: A. BUJUMBURA 235 ¶B. BUJUMBURA 83 ¶C. 08 BUJUMBURA 675 ¶D. BUJUMBURA 252 Classified By: CDA JoAnne Wagner for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On July 9, Minister of the Interior Eduard Nduwimana, believed to be "President Nkurunziza's man," set off a political firestorm by presenting to the Council of Ministers a different draft Electoral Code than the consensus version prepared during a June round-table of political parties, civil society and government representatives. Nduwimana's draft reflects only the ruling party CNDD-FDD's preferences, which are the reverse of many consensus version proposals. Nduwimana's version includes beginning the 2010 elections at the presidential instead of local level and using multiple ballots instead of a single ballot. Five Council members from the FRODEBU party walked out as Nduwimana produced the GoB draft, and subsequently joined eight other political parties in publicly decrying Nduwimana's move. Arguing that the GoB version favors the ruling party and leaves voters open to intimidation, they called for the consensus draft code to be put before the National Assembly for adoption rather than the ruling party's version. Nevertheless, on July 15, GoB spokesperson Philippe Nzobonariba said the government will submit its version to Parliament. The international community has expressed its concern and regret at this turn of events and has encouraged the GoB to reconsider. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) From June 3-4, representatives of political parties, the GoB and civil society participated in a USAID and EU-sponsored workshop which produced a consensus draft of proposed amendments to the electoral code. The group then presented its draft code to Minister of the Interior Nduwimana, who was installed as Minister just this past January, reportedly because the previous Minister no longer faithfully followed President Nkurunziza's wishes. In a July 9 move opposition and civil society leaders termed "disappointing," but also "reflecting the CNDD-FDD's usual tricks," Minister Nduwimana surprised the Council of Ministers with a new Electoral Code draft which reversed several of the June workshop agreements. The consensus draft Electoral Code included: -- holding communal elections first, followed by provincial and then presidential elections, and -- mandatory use of a single ballot listing all candidates. Minister Nduwimana's proposal has the electoral process beginning with presidential elections and calls for multiple ballots - one for each candidate. ¶3. (C) The vast majority of the opposition favors a single ballot, saying that multiple ballots leave voters vulnerable to intimidation and bribery. In the 2005 elections a separate color-coded ballot was used for each candidate, which the CNDD-FDD claimed helped illiterate voters select their preferred candidates. In those elections, CNDD-FDD local leaders pressed voters to return their unused ballots, thus revealing their votes. In his July 15 meeting with the Charge, former Burundian president and FRODEBU party 2010 presidential candidate Domitien Ndayizeye explained that Burundi needs a single ballot listing all the candidates' names instead of the separate ballot for each candidate allowed by the existing Electoral Code and preferred by the CNDD-FDD (ref A). ¶4. (C) Opposition party leaders have often predicted that the CNDD-FDD would push for presidential elections first, saying that President Nkurunziza is more popular than his party and CNDD-FDD candidates in subsequent local elections would gain momentum from Nkurunziza's popularity. CNDD party president Leonard Nyangoma and FRODEBU spokesperson Pancrase Cimpaye informed Embassy officials on July 16 that the GoB's proposed Electoral Code amendments, in addition to violating the spirit of the consensus-building project, also violate Burundi's constitution. Though the constitution does not specify the order in which elections must occur, it does specify term limits for the president, parliament, and local elected officials. According to Minister Nduwimana's draft, the presidential election will take place on July 26, 2010 with parliamentary and local elections to follow. The terms of communal administrators end on June 3, 2010, however, which would create a vacuum not addressed in the Constitution. ¶5. (C) Opposition party leaders have asked the international community to weigh in with the GoB and encourage it to put the consensus draft to the parliament. Some political party representatives, including FRODEBU General Secretary Frederic Bamvuginyumvira, said to EmbOff July 16 that everything should be done to prevent the government's draft from going before parliament because, he asserted, it will cause political deadlock. Other opposition party interlocutors have stated that they are not particularly concerned whether the GoB version goes before Parliament because they doubt the Senate, which has final authority over laws governing electoral processes, will approve the contested version. Nevertheless, they requested the international community press the GoB now to change course, saying that time lost in a parliamentary process could harm chances for a free and fair 2010 election. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: While it is true that the Senate has shown itself willing to push back against President Nkurunziza's agenda (witness its rejection of the first National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) slate (ref B) and the law criminalizing homosexual acts in the penal code (ref C)), it may be more useful to prevent Nduwimana's draft from reaching the Senate in the first place. Many members of the international community, including Post, have expressed regret at the GoB's decision to press forward with its own draft and urged it to reconsider. The move to promote multiple ballots is most troublesome, given the history of accompanying intimidation in 2005. More concerted pressure, however, may be necessary. Local political experts and opposition party representatives have informed Post that Nkurunziza's susceptibility to international pressure should not be underestimated. END COMMENT. Wagner