ARGENTINA: PRO UNION'S MULTIMILLION DOLLAR CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000722 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2039 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: PRO UNION'S MULTIMILLION DOLLAR CAMPAIGN REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 0655 ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 0698 Classified By: CDA Kelly for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: With less than one week remaining before the June 28 congressional elections, most polls continue to show the Kirchner-allied Victory Front (FpV) and the Peronist dissident slate, PRO Union, in a statistical dead heat in this race's key electoral district, Buenos Aires province. This cable focuses on the Peronist dissidents' campaign style and is part of a series on the three main campaigns, which includes reports on the campaigns of the FpV (ref A) and the UCR-CC (septel). The PRO Union's lead candidate, Peronist dissident Francisco De Narvaez, has launched a multimillion-dollar campaign, using the latest in media technology, to take on the FpV's slate led by former President Nestor Kirchner. Comfortable in the limelight, De Narvaez has largely sidelined the slate's second candidate, fellow Peronist dissident Felipe Sola, in an effort to distance the campaign from the Peronist party. De Narvaez has campaigned primarily on improving public security and the economy. He has also used new media technologies to reach young voters and has a four percentage point lead over the FPV among the under-40 crowd. Even if PRO Union loses, the campaign has given De Narvaez greater name recognition and sets the stage for him to run for the Buenos Aires governorship in 2011. After the elections, the Peronist party is widely expected to realign itself to reflect new political realities. If De Narvaez performs well, he will be a force to be reckoned with in the post-election political realignment. End Summary. BA Province Race Remains Tight -------------- ¶2. (C) With one week remaining before the June 28 congressional elections, most polls continue to show the Kirchner-led Victory Front (FpV) and the Peronist dissident slate, Pro Union, in a statistical dead heat in Buenos Aires province. With 37% of the national vote, the province is this race's key campaign battleground, and a must-win race for former President Nestor Kirchner (NK) and his wife, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). According to "La Nacion," four of five polling firms predict an FPV win in the province. Long-time Kirchner pollster, Ricardo Rouvier, unsurprisingly shows the FpV ticket, led by NK, beating the PRO Union slate headed by national deputy Francisco De Narvaez by the widest margin, or 9.2 percentage points. Rouvier's poll shows 38.3% of those polled support the FPV versus 29.1% for PRO Union. Analogias gives the FPV slate an 8-point advantage over PRO Union, with 36.4% of respondents favoring the FPV and 28.3% favoring De Narvaez. Management and Fit (MAF) gives 28.9% to the FPV versus 23.7% to PRO Union, while Isonomia shows a tighter race, with the two parties in a statistical dead heat (FPV 29.2% versus Pro Union 26.1%). ¶3. (C) Poliarquia, which was commissioned by "La Nacion," shows De Narvaez leading the race. The survey gives the multimillionaire a slight lead, taking 32.5% of the vote and holding a 2.5 percentage point lead over NK. The poll also showed that the number of people having a positive image of De Narvaez has grown, and now stands at 42%. This is four percentage points higher than Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli, the FPV's most popular official and NK's running mate. Only 36% have a positive image of NK, and 43% have a negative image, according to Poliarquia. De Narvaez also appears to have broad-based support across all socio-economic groups, while NK is struggling to obtain middle and upper class support. The same poll shows De Narvaez doing well among young voters and voters who have completed high school and/or university studies. In contrast, Kirchner's strength lies with those over 60, retired, and the uneducated (i.e., those who have only completed primary education). An unpublished poll conducted June 11-18 by highly regarded Ipsos - Mora y Araujo, with a margin of error of 2.8%, shows 35% of respondents intending to vote for De Narvaez's slate, and only 30% for the NK-Scioli ticket. Although political commentators still believe the race is too close to call, contacts in the De Narvaez-Macri-Sola camp have told us that they expect to lose by a few percentage points. PRO-Union: A "Stormy" Alliance -------------- ¶4. (C) In February, Peronist dissidents Francisco De Narvaez and Felipe Sola teamed up with Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri of Republican Proposal (PRO) to define a common slate headed by De Narvaez and Sola. Local observers describe the alliance as a "marriage of convenience" between the center-right PRO, which has limited national reach outside of its base in Buenos Aires City, and the Peronist dissidents. According to press reports, negotiations to define the slate's composition of candidates were arduous, as each camp fought to get their picks on the lists. After the lists were finalized, however, both Macri and Sola were caught off-guard when in May De Narvaez presented to the Electoral Court lists that only included his candidates in 20 of the province's 134 districts, according to a local political analyst whose firm consults for Macri. As the deadline to submit candidate slates had already passed when the political maneuver was made public, Macri and Sola could do nothing but accept it. Campaigning Multimillionaire Style -------------- ¶5. (C) De Narvaez appears to have spared no expense in his campaign. With a ten-seat Cessna jet at his disposal, he is able to visit the farthest corners of the vast province of Buenos Aires, which covers more territory than the entire nation of France. His office, a modern house in the upscale and trendy neighborhood of Las Canitas, is staffed by 100 employees and equipped with the latest technology. His office boasts a large flat screen television which displays a digital map that denotes the location of the country's media organizations. His staff also maintains an interactive Internet site for reporting crimes in the province. ¶6. (C) The Civic Coalition and Radical alliance has complained that such wealth gives De Narvaez an unfair advantage and called on PRO Union to report their campaign expenses. De Narvaez has publicly asserted that the costly campaign has been all on his dime and that he will not report his expenses until required by law. (Note: Electoral law requires that parties submit reports on their estimated expenses ten days prior to the elections. A final report of actual campaign expenses is required 60 days after the elections.) On June 18, in compliance with the electoral law, his campaign reported that its to-date campaign costs estimated 14.430 million pesos (approximately USD $3.8 million). De Narvaez the Stage Hog -------------- ¶7. (C) De Narvaez has done little to share the limelight with his ostensible running mate Sola. Local political commentators have speculated that this may be because PRO Union is seeking to deemphasize its ties to the Peronist party. As a result, Sola and De Narvaez have appeared together in very few campaign events, and Sola has been absent from most campaign ads. In an effort to boost his public profile, Sola appeared on June 15 on the wildly popular political satire program, "Big Brother in Law" ("Gran Cunado") where he joked about his lack of appearances in campaign ads. In contrast, Macri, though not a candidate himself, has appeared alongside both De Narvaez and PRO's lead candidate in BA City, former vice-mayor Gabriela Michetti, to inaugurate new public works. Campaigning on Security and the Economy -------------- ¶8. (C) Pro Union's campaign has primarily focused on reducing crime and more recently has emphasized the importance of strengthening the local economy. De Narvaez's principal campaign website touts a new vision for a safer and more economically sound province. It promises a revamping of the current system in the areas of security, justice, the economy, health, social policies, and the environment and highlights a sports program aimed at reducing drug use among youth. During a meeting with the business community earlier this month, De Narvaez asserted that restoring consumer and investor confidence is his top economic priority. He noted that a high percentage of Argentines believe Argentina will be worse off in the future, and added "we cannot talk about an egalitarian country when some individuals pay taxes and others do not." Employing the Fear Tactic -------------- ¶9. (C) De Narvaez has also begun to tap into voters' economic concerns to sway them to vote for PRO Union. During a June 16 campaign act in the province's key coastal city Mar del Plata, De Narvaez warned that an FpV victory would mean greater nationalizations, attacks on private property and the press, and a grab for personal bank deposits, arguing that "the FpV will need money (as) Nestor Kirchner intends to follow the Hugo Chavez model." At the same time, he has stressed to voters that they should not waste their vote on other opposition candidates, such as the Radical/Civic Coalition, arguing that only a vote for his ticket will be "useful to defeat NK. Pro-Union Airs Fears of Electoral Fraud -------------- ¶10. (C) PRO-Union campaign insiders have also publicly expressed concern that, due to the neck-to-neck closeness of the race, the ruling FpV will engage in electoral fraud to prevent a PRO Union victory. De Narvaez has said that anything less than a six-point lead (which none of the published polls has given him yet) would create the conditions that would encourage FpV partisans to attempt to rig the election and succeed. During his June 5 dialogue with the business sector, De Narvaez said: "we are going to do everything to make sure your vote counts." These efforts include extensive TV and on-line advertising to attract young voters to serve as party monitors ("fiscales") on Election Day to ensure there are sufficient ballots at polling stations and observe the vote count by the election authorities. One ad encourages people to volunteer on June 28 so the FpV "does not rob us of our votes." As a result of these efforts, the PRO-Union claims they have registered more than 12,000 party representatives in less than two months. ¶11. (C) The campaign is also distributing mass quantities of PRO-Union paper ballots during campaign walks and asking voters to bring the ballot with them to vote out of concern that FpV supporters may remove Pro Union ballots from tables on Election Day. (Note: During the 2007 presidential elections, it was reported that opposition ballots were not available at some polling stations, which the opposition immediately denounced. Electoral authorities countered the charges explaining that it is the responsibility of each political party to ensure that its ballots are available in sufficient quantities at each polling station.) Press Strategy: The More Attention, the Better -------------- -- ¶12. (C) A media magnate, De Narvaez is clearly comfortable in the limelight and uses media attention to his advantage. He televises campaign ads from his office and is accompanied by a small media team to his campaign acts, including one staff member charged with immediately dispatching photos to the press. One campaign operative estimated that De Narvaez averaged six to seven radio programs per day earlier in the campaign. Poloff found it striking to see the extensive press attention devoted to the Pro Union's dialogue with leading businesspersons on June 5. By comparison, Radical and Civic Coalition's candidates received scant press coverage when they met with the same group on June 11. ¶13. (C) De Narvaez also appears to have boosted his name recognition due to "Gran Cunado's" flattering depiction of him as a self-assured, wealthy candidate who laughs frequently and distinctively. The show also appears to have helped him build greater rapport with voters. During a recent campaign walkthrough in Greater Buenos Aires, children shouted "that's the man from TV!" as he approached. During campaign rallies, he has made joking references to his catchy phrases that have been made all the more popular by his Big Brother-in-Law impersonator. (Note: De Narvaez's TV doppelganger uses his campaign slogans "I am a common guy" and "I have a security plan" to poke fun at the candidate's penchant for speaking in sound-bites. Like the candidate himself, however, the comic does not reveal the plan's specifics.) The catch phrases appear to have caught on, with one female supporter yelling "he is a common man!" just moments before he was to address a campaign rally in a large rural city in the province. His distinctive laugh has even been made into a cell-phone ring-tone, according to press reports. Using New Media Technology to Target Youth -------------- ¶14. (C) Taking a page from President Obama's campaign playbook, the PRO Union has sought to capture Argentina's youth vote. Eight staff members are charged with updating De Narvaez's campaign websites, YouTube videos and his profiles on MySpace, Facebook, and Sonico, in addition to his Twitter messages. The campaign's youth strategy appears to be working -- 48.5% of 18-25 year olds favor Pro Union to the FpV, and De Narvaez has a 15 percentage point lead over NK among voters under 40, according to Poliarquia. It remains to be seen, however, if De Narvaez's extensive use of new media technology accounts for his edge among young voters, and whether it will attract more undecided voters to his camp. To Some Voters: De Narvaez Means Change -------------- ¶15. (C) Although De Narvaez has been involved in politics, directly or indirectly, for at least 15 years, he has succeeded in portraying himself as an outsider. De Narvaez's message of change appears to be resonating with voters, with many saying "he is a breath of fresh air." He has sought to differentiate himself from NK by presenting himself as a friendly, approachable leader, open to dialogue and consensus. Throughout the campaign, he has repeatedly called on NK to participate in a debate, a challenge which has been ignored by NK. The close race and De Narvaez's voter appeal appears to have made NK nervous. NK has reportedly used Argentina's Secretariat of Intelligence (SIDE) to smear De Narvaez by trying to link him to ephedrine trafficking (ref B),a strategy which has not met with much success. NK has since backed away from publicly trying to link De Narvaez to ephedrine. NK has since backed away from trying to smear De Narvaez, but a last-minute surprise attack on his rival cannot be ruled out. Indeed, Poloff recently noticed posters in Buenos Aires City that appear to target undecided voters and directs them to a website which displays numerous videos making fun of De Narvaez and referencing his link to ephedrine trafficking. Other recently posted posters feature a photo of De Narvaez next to another of unpopular former president Carlos Menem. BIO NOTE -------------- ¶16. (C) The Colombian-born multimillionaire notes that he learned business from his grandfather, whom he began working for at the age of 17 in his supermarket chain, Casa Tia, and served as the chain's director from 1989 until 1999. From 1999 to 2002, he dedicated himself to his financial and media businesses: "La Rural" (a historic convention center next to the Embassy which hosts the annual agricultural fair), "America TV," the newspaper "Ambito Financiero", and the radio channel "La Red." In 2001, he created the Southern United Foundation, which joined more than 200 professionals from different sectors to collaborate on government administration issues. In 2002, De Narvaez joined the Peronist party, which he has said "represents what I have always believed." ¶17. (C) De Narvaez used his influential business connections to launch into Argentine politics in 2005 when he successfully ran for Congress under the Peronist banner as a national deputy from Buenos Aires Province. In 2007, he was simultaneously a national deputy candidate and a gubernatorial candidate. Our contacts say that only days before the election, De Narvaez received a judicial ruling indicating that he could run for governor despite his foreign birth. (He cannot, however, run for president, though rumors of a planned post-election push to remove the constitutional prohibition on foreign-born presidents abound.) Receiving a little over one million votes, De Narvaez came in a respectable third, behind the FpV's Daniel Scioli and the Civic Coalition's current top congressional candidate in the province, Margarita Stolbizer. ¶18. (C) Born in Colombia in 1953, De Narvaez moved with his family to Buenos Aires at the age of three and became a naturalized citizen in 1983 so he could vote for former President Raul Alfonsin. De Narvaez has told the press that his imitator on "Gran Cunado" accurately captures his personality by revealing the importance he places on humor. Despite this light-heartedness, the candidate has had his dark days and has spoken openly in press interviews about his attempted suicide in 1992 as a result of depression over his first marriage's failure. De Narvaez has three children from his first marriage, two from his second, and is expecting his sixth child shortly after the elections. Comment -------------- ¶19. (C) Even if the FpV comes in first place in Buenos Aires province, De Narvaez has certainly given NK a run for his money. The PRO-Union campaign and "the Gran Cunado" show have given De Narvaez greater name recognition, setting the stage for a likely run for the Buenos Aires Governorship in ¶2011. (Indeed, there is some speculation that De Narvaez may even have his eyes set on the presidency, which would require a constitutional amendment or a court ruling to set aside the requirement to be born in Argentina.) A strong showing in this race will give De Narvaez and the Peronist dissidents the upper hand in wresting control of the Peronist party from Nestor Kirchner, which in turn would provide De Narvaez the electoral base and political machinery to support such a run. The outcome of such a fight is unclear, however. No one here believes NK will leave without a fight. KELLY