ARGENTINA: POLLS SHOW KIRCHNER-ALLIED FPV SLIGHTLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000600

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: POLLS SHOW KIRCHNER-ALLIED FPV SLIGHTLY
AHEAD IN KEY ELECTORAL DISTRICT BUT STILL LIKELY TO LOSE
SEATS

REF: (A) BUENOS AIRES 0443 AND PREVIOUS (B) BUENOS
AIRES 0561

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (SBU) With six weeks before the June 28 congressional
midterms, the Kirchner-allied ruling Victory Front (FpV)
continues to enjoy a slim advantage in the key electoral
district of Buenos Aires province, but possibly not enough to
maintain its majority in the Lower House, according to recent
polls. With 35 of the 127 national deputies up for election,
the province of Buenos Aires (with 37% of the national vote)
is the electoral plum, and is the Kirchners' main hope for
retaining the FpV's slim working majority in the Congress --
particularly since they are widely expected to lose in the
next four biggest districts: the Federal District, and the
provinces of Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Mendoza (ref A).
Nonetheless, even the most favorable projections indicate
that the FpV will likely lose between five to six national
deputy seats, winning 14 or 15 of their 20 seats at stake.
Currently, the FpV has 115 seats and can count on some 20
allied votes to obtain its working majority of 129.


2. (SBU) Six recent polls published in leading daily "Clarin"
May 17 give the FpV slate led by former President Nestor
Kirchner (NK) and Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli an
electoral advantage ranging from 2.6% to 9.8% over their
closest competitors in the Buenos Aires provincial race, the
Peronist dissident slate, and the UCR-Radical slate. The
polls, conducted by polling firms Equis, Julio Aurelio
consultants, CEOP, Management and Fit, Insomia, and
Ibarometro, are the first to be published since parties
registered their candidate slates (ref B) May 9. The results
from the six firms project NK winning between 26.6% and 34.1%
of the vote in Buenos Aires province, with Equis polling firm
showing the highest percentage (34.1%) by factoring in its
projection of how currently undecided voters will split.
(Note: Led by Artemio Lopez, Equis is one of the Kirchners'
preferred polling firms.) "Clarin" did not publish the
margin of error for these polls or the date of polling, but
leading daily "Perfil" reported on May 17 similar results
from a nationwide Management and Fit poll conducted between
May 13-15 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9%.
Considering such a margin of error, the FpV could squeak by
with its desired 35% to win the province.


3. (SBU) All six polling firms placed the FpV slate first,
and five of them put the Peronist dissident slate in second
place followed by the Radical Party (UCR) - Civic Coalition
(CC) slate. According to the polls, the Peronist dissident
slate, headed by national deputies Francisco de Narvaez and
Felipe Sola, would receive between 17.5% and 30.1%. The
UCR-CC slate, led by CC candidate Margarita Stolbizer and
Ricardo Alfonsin (the son of the recently deceased President
Raul Alfonsin) is projected to capture anywhere from 13.8% to
21.7% of the votes. Only Ibarometro's poll has the Peronist
dissident slate in third with 17.5% after the UCR-CC slate
with 21.0%.


4. (SBU) "Clarin" noted that even the poll results most
favorable to the Kirchner-FpV slate would result in a net
loss in Buenos Aires province of five or six of the 20
congressional deputies currently held by the FpV. The
article recalled that the Kirchners won 46% of the votes in
the province in 2007 and a similar percentage in 2005, which
gave them the majority of the province's seats in Congress.
Even if Nestor Kirchner's slate comes in first place on June
28 with 35% of the vote, that kind of victory will only yield
15-16 of the 35 seats at stake (20 of which are currently
held by the FpV).


5. (C) Comment: To a certain extent, Kirchner has succeeded
in getting the political class to focus on the congressional
race in Buenos Aires province, a long-time Peronist
stronghold, as the one race that will define the national
election. The polls published in "Clarin" suggest the FpV's
prospects of securing a strong victory in Buenos Aires
province are increasingly unlikely. Even if NK succeeds in
achieving his desired win of 35% in the province, the net
loss of seats from Buenos Aires province, in addition to
expected losses in the next largest electoral districts of
the Federal District, Cordoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza
provinces, will threaten the FpV's majority in Congress. The
Kirchners' FpV, as the party in power, will also have to
contend with the fact that over half the electorate voted
against it. We fully expect all three major blocks -- the
Kirchners' FpV, the dissident Peronists, and the UCR-Civic
Coalition -- to go into overdrive June 29 as they try to spin
the results their way and each claim victory, but if current


trends continue, it will be hard for Kirchner to make a
convincing case.
WAYNE