Argentina Elections: VP Cobos Still Popular in

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000558

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2039
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON AR
SUBJECT: Argentina Elections: VP Cobos Still Popular in
Home Province of Mendoza, But Victory Not A Sure Thing

Ref: (A) Buenos Aires 0442 (B) Buenos Aires (0429)

Classified by Ambassador Wayne for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Summary: Argentine Vice President Cobos's
presidential aspirations are riding on the fate of the
slate of candidates he is backing in the June 28
congressional mid-term elections. Currently, his slate
for Mendoza's five national deputy slots and three Senate
seats is favored to win 40% of the vote. The same polls
show the center-right Democratic party drawing 20% of the
vote in Mendoza, coming slightly ahead of the ruling
Peronist party. Despite these rosy numbers, Mendoza's
political cognoscenti say that a Cobos victory is not a
"sure thing," noting the popularity of Peronist mayors
running for Congress and the lack of support from
prominent leaders of the Radical party (Cobos's former
party). Even Cobos's own former Vice Governor
acknowledges that Mendocinos are "finicky voters," saying
that "frontrunners have never won" the province, before
quickly adding that he hoped "Cobos will be the first."
End Summary.

Cobos Ahead in the Polls, PJ Fights for Second Place
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Mendoza is Argentina's fourth most populous
province. Poloff traveled to Mendoza on April 24-25 to
meet with local politicians and political analysts to see
how the mid-term legislative elections are shaping up in
the hometown province of Vice President Julio Cobos.
National polls rank Cobos as the most popular politician
in the country, with the highest approval and positive
image ratings, reinforcing the perception that he is the
"leader of the opposition" ever since he cast a tie-
breaking vote in the Senate in July 2008 against a
controversial Kirchner proposal to increase duties on
agricultural exports. According to local polls, Federal
Consensus (CONFE) -- the Cobos-backed slate for Mendoza's
five national deputy slots and three Senate seats -- is
currently favored by 40% of the electorate. The same
polls show the center-right Democratic Party polling at
20% of the vote, slightly ahead of the ruling Peronist
Party (PJ),which enjoys support of only 18% of the
electorate.

PJ: Political Cohesion is our Greatest Strength
-------------- --


3. (C) During the late April visit, PJ leaders boasted
that the party finalized its slates without the need for
internal elections. When asked for their thoughts on
former President and current PJ party head Nestor
Kirchner's proposal for Governors to run for Congress
(ref b),they claimed that PJ Governor Celso Jaque had no
intentions of doing so because he wants to complete his
term as governor. They asserted, however, that "the
positions belong to the party, not the candidates."
Other analysts told poloff that, due to Jaque's
precipitous drop in popularity, the local Peronist party
was not going to allow him to name any of his own
candidates to the PJ ticket.


4. (C) Without acknowledging that they were trailing in
the polls, PJ leaders indicated that their party's
cohesion was its greatest strength. They noted that
unlike the Radicals (UCR),who expelled Cobos for
breaking ranks with the Radical party to join President
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's (CFK) Victory Front
(FPV) ticket in 2007, the PJ "never disciplines those
that leave, they just welcome them back to the fold."
When asked for their opinion of Vice President Cobos,
they called him an unscrupulous "traitor." CFK should
have known better than to name him his running mate, they
argued, saying if he betrayed his own party, it was only
a matter of time before he betrayed her.

CONFE: Luck, Not Skill, Accounts for Cobos's Popularity
-------------- --------------


5. (C) In a separate meeting with poloff, Juan Carlos
Jaliff, Cobos's former Vice-Governor and now head of his
CONFE party, painted a different story. "Cristina
betrayed Cobos first," he claimed. He explained that
Cobos agreed to be CFK's running mate because CFK's
husband, former President Nestor Kirchner (NK),had sold
him on the idea of a post-Peronist alliance, along the
lines of Chile's Concertacion, where individual parties
retain their identities but work in concert for a common
agenda. According to Jaliff, NK betrayed that vision
shortly after his wife won the elections by announcing
his intention to run for President of the Peronist party.
Cobos was very disillusioned by this decision, as it
demonstrated NK's embrace of old politics, Jaliff said.


6. (C) When asked for his opinion of Cobos, Jaliff simply
called him "lucky." In Napoleon's search for generals,
Jaliff said, his advisors would present him with only the
best candidates. After reviewing each candidate's skills
and credentials, Napoleon would then ask "but is he
lucky?" Jaliff explained that Cobos never had any
ambitions to become Vice President. He never intended to
become a national hero by casting his tie-breaking vote
in the Senate. As governor of Mendoza, Jaliff said, it
took Cobos six months to get his first meeting with then-
President Nestor Kirchner. And then, all of a sudden, he
was asked to be CFK's Vice Presidential nominee. "Cobos
is not charismatic. He's just lucky. The people connect
with him because he is normal," Jaliff stated.


7. (C) Turning to the mid-term elections, Jaliff
described the race as a national referendum on the
Kirchner agenda and predicted that CFK would lose her
congressional majority. He dismissed press speculation
that CFK would resign if she loses (ref A),arguing that
"Peronists never leave power voluntarily. And even when
they do, the alternative to Peronism is Peronism. Take
Nestor Kirchner for example. He is the antithesis of
(former President Carlos) Menem."


8. (C) Jaliff said that the CONFE would join forces with
the Radical Party (UCR) and cited local polls that give
Cobos an electoral advantage over the ruling PJ and the
center-right Democratic party. Jaliff, however,
described Mendocinos as "finicky voters," saying that
"frontrunners have never won" the province, before
quickly adding that he hoped "Cobos will be the first."
Although he expects the Kirchners to lose the mid-terms,
he is worried about post-electoral unrest. "You can beat
the Peronists in elections; the problem is they won't let
you govern," Jaliff concluded.


9. (C) Comment: Mendoza is Argentina's fourth largest
province, but with 4.2% of the national vote, it will be
electing only five of the 127 deputies up for election
this year and three of the 72 senators. Given the
intensity of the Kirchners' animosity for the highly
popular Vice President, the stakes there have escalated
out of proportion with the number of seats at stake. It
is widely assumed that the Kirchners will seek to derail
Cobos's prospects for a presidential run in 2011 by
defeating him or minimizing his team's margin of victory
in his home province in this year's congressional
election. As a result, there is a great deal riding on
the electoral outcome in Mendoza.

WAYNE