ARGENTINA: ALLIANCES ANNOUNCED, CAMPAIGN SEASON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000515

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2039
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: ALLIANCES ANNOUNCED, CAMPAIGN SEASON
OFFICIALLY BEGINS FOR JUNE MID-TERMS

REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 360

B. BUENOS AIRES 429

C. BUENOS AIRES 347

D. BUENOS AIRES 470

Classified By: CDA Tom Kelly for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Summary: Argentine political parties have registered
their alliances (but not yet their candidate slates) for the
June 28 mid-term congressional elections. Although a total
of 16 electoral alliances have registered in the country's
top two key electoral battlegrounds, Buenos Aires province
and the Federal District, four main alliances are competing
in the province and three in the Federal District. At the
same time, campaign season is officially underway, and once
slates are registered -- the deadline is May 9 -- we expect
it to kick into high gear. President Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner (CFK) and former president Nestor Kirchner (NK) have
taken to warning that an FpV loss would bring back the chaos
that followed Argentina's 2001 financial crisis. The
Kirchners' latest effort to scare Argentines into voting
their way is directed both at mobilizing their core base, the
urban poor, and perhaps warning fence-sitters of the dire
consequences that could arise if they lose. Whether this
tactic will mobilize more supporters or opponents is
uncertain, and the Kirchners' now tenuous congressional
majority hangs in the balance. End Summary


2. (SBU) Argentine political parties met an April 28 deadline
for registering alliances and coalitions for the June 28
congressional mid-term elections. Since mid-March when the
Argentine Congress approved President Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner's (CFK) bill to move up the legislative elections
from October to March (ref A),opposition parties have kicked
into high gear to form alliances in the hopes of presenting a
strong, united front capable of beating the Kirchner-allied
ruling Victory Front (FpV). Although there are nominally
over 40 national political parties and 650 local parties in
Argentina, as has been the case in past elections, the
principal candidates in the June midterms will be backed by
coalitions versus individual parties. The parties' next
challenge will be to agree on the composition and order of
their candidate slates -- the deadline is May 9. While
elections are now less than 60 days away, and the campaign
season has officially started, the streets remain relatively
devoid of campaign propaganda. "Media campaigns" cannot
legally start until May 27. Once candidates are finalized,
however, we expect to see campaign posters and graffiti
proliferate.

A Playing Field of Alliances in BA Province
--------------


3. (SBU) Seven alliances have registered in Buenos Aires
province, this race's electoral plum representing 37% of the
national vote (ref B). The four major alliances include the
ruling FpV but under a newly-christened name, the Victory
Peronist Front (FJpV); the Peronist dissidents' PRO-Union;
the Radical Party's (UCR),Civic Coalition's (CC),and
Socialist Party's newly-formed Civic and Social Agreement;
and Vice President Julio Cobos's Federal Consensus.



4. (SBU) As Peronist Party (PJ) president, NK has yet to
officially confirm the FJpV's candidate slate. Nonetheless,
it is widely believed that NK will lead that slate with
Buenos Aires province Governor Daniel Scioli, and the recent
addition of actress Nacha Guevara (who is best known for her
stage portrayal of the iconic former first lady Evita Peron).
Although Scioli has agreed to run to increase the alliance's
electoral chances, he has publicly indicated that he will not
occupy his congressional seat if he wins. Rather, he will
complete his term as Governor. Guevara and Scioli met with
CFK at the Casa Rosada on April 28. Guevara, before leaving
for a vacation in Polynesia, said she looks forward to being
a national deputy to advance causes of importance to her,
such as women's issues.


5. (SBU) The other key electoral forces -- PRO-Union and
Civic and Social Agreement -- have confirmed their leading
candidates. Pro-Union, the alliance between Peronist
dissidents and Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri of
Republican Proposal (PRO),announced in March that national
deputies Francisco de Narvaez and Felipe Sola would head
their slate. Civic and Social Agreement, the newly-minted
alliance between the UCR, the CC, and the Socialists, will be
led by CC's Margarita Stolbizer and UCR's Ricardo Alfonsin,
the son of recently deceased former President Raul Alfonsin.
The alliance's slate will also include some supporters of VP
Cobos. Their alliance will be effective in 15 districts.

They will not join forces in Mendoza province, where Radicals
will align with supporters of VP Cobos, or in Cordoba, where
the CC will include their candidates on the slate led by
newly independent Luis Juez, the former Peronist mayor of
Cordoba City.

...And in Buenos Aires City
--------------


6. (C) Nine alliances have registered in the Federal
District, another key electoral district representing 9.5% of
the national vote (ref C). The three major alliances include
the Republican Proposal (PRO) alliance, the Civic and Social
Agreement, and the ruling Victory Front (FpV). In contrast
to Buenos Aires province, the FpV has yet to float possible
candidates in the Federal District because it is having
trouble attracting strong candidates. As reported in ref D,
Buenos Aires City Vice-Mayor Gabriela Michetti will head the
PRO alliance slate for national deputies. The Civic and
Social Agreement slate will be headed by former Central Bank
president Alfonso Prat-Gay and constitutional expert Ricardo
Gil Lavedra. CC leader Elisa Carrio has publicly agreed to
go third on the list, while noting that she would prefer the
7th or 8th place to downplay her personal ambitions.

Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail
--------------


7. (C) With the campaign season officially underway, the
Kirchners seem to have settled on a campaign theme of fear.
Speaking to party supporters at rallies on April 27, 28, and
29, NK asserted that a possible FpV electoral loss in the
mid-terms would threaten governability and that the country
could fall "into the 2001 pit" and "explode," referring to
the social and political chaos that followed the country's
massive financial crisis in 2001-02. He added that "if
Cristina loses her legislative majority, we will return to
poverty. Argentina cannot go back, we have to help Cristina
advance our agenda." During an April 29 event with mayors
from Cordoba province, CFK echoed her husband, saying that
"not only is our agenda at stake" in these elections, "but
also the stability and quality of our democracy." She
claimed that "the opposition voted against all the laws that
have transformed the lives of Argentines."


8. (C) Comment: The Kirchners' rhetoric appears designed to
scare fence-sitters into voting their way or at least not
voting for the opposition. Some commentators have pointed to
the implied threat: vote for the Kirchners to protect you
against chaos, or else they will make sure there is chaos.
The Kirchners, rather than highlight the progress that
Argentina has made in the last six years or present a vision
of where they want to take the country, apparently prefer to
tap into the traumatized Argentine psyche and exploit a fear
of returning to the 2001-02 social and political meltdown.
KELLY