ARGENTINA: RECENT POLLS GIVE KIRCHNERS EDGE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000452 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2039 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: RECENT POLLS GIVE KIRCHNERS EDGE IN BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE RACE REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 429 ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 443 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: CDA Tom Kelly for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (SBU) Argentina's ruling (Kirchner-allied) Victory Front (FpV) received a boost in some polls after former President and First Gentleman Nestor Kirchner (NK) proposed last week that Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli join him in leading the FpV slate for the June 28 Congressional elections (ref A). These polls suggest that the FpV has a better chance of winning the key electoral district of Buenos Aires province if Scioli is on the ticket. This is relatively good news for the Kirchners, since the press and the opposition were highly critical of the plan, which also called on Peronist mayors to head their respective tickets in local city council elections. NK, who is still testing alternative slate compositions, will likely hold off on announcing the FpV's candidates until close to the May 9 deadline. The Kirchners hope to maintain their congressional majority in both houses -- and Buenos Aires province, holding almost 40% of the national vote total, is key to that objective (reftels). Scioli to the FpV's Rescue -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Two telephone polls conducted in mid-April by the firm Analogias indicate that an NK-Scioli slate would take first place in the province. (Comment: Directed by Analia del Franco, Analogias is one of the Kirchers' preferred polling firms. Analogias has yet to publish the margin of error for these two polls, but previous polls have had margins of error ranging from /- 4.6% to /- 6.9%.) According to the poll conducted in the greater metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, a Kirchner-Scioli ticket would win with 34.2% of the vote. The center-right triple alliance led by Peronist dissidents Francisco de Narvaez and Felipe Sola with support from Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri of Republican Proposal would place second with 27.6% -- but given the margin of error in Analogias polling, this could also be interpreted as a statistical draw between the two leading tickets. With 13.4% of the vote, third place would go to a joint Civic Coalition (CC)-Radical (UCR) slate led by provincial leader Margarita Stolbizer (CC) and Ricardo Alfonsin (UCR),the son of the recently deceased former President Raul Alfonsin. If the remainder (over 20%) is "undecided," conventional wisdom among political analysts is that the Kirchner slate will not pick up much support from those who are still undecided, because the undecided at this point are those who are trying to decide between the two main opposition alternatives -- the dissident Peronists or the CC/UCR/Socialists. ¶3. (SBU) A separate province-wide poll gives an NK-Scioli ticket a five-point advantage over the De Narvaez-led ticket, an increase by two points from previous polls. In the poorer outskirts of Buenos Aires, where the Kirchners have been traditionally strong, an NK ticket has a 13 point advantage over the triple alliance. The recent polling, however, has also revealed low voter interest throughout the province in the legislative elections, with 36.2% of voters expressing interest and 60.6% uninterested. A Winning Combination without NK? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The press speculates that NK is testing other alternative scenarios to determine his best chances of securing a large victory in Buenos Aires province. Business daily "Ambito Financiero" reported on April 14 that NK has asked pollsters to gauge the difference in public reaction between his preferred option (a Kirchner-Scioli ticket) and that of a slate led by Kirchner and Cabinet Chief Sergio Massa or his third, less desirable, option of a Scioli-Massa ticket. Some polling results are already in, according to the online newspaper "El Grito Peronista", which reported April 15 that two polls suggest that a Scioli-Massa ticket has a better chance of winning than one led by Kirchner and Scioli. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) As reported in reftels, the FpV faces a tough electoral battle nationwide and needs a strong victory in Buenos Aires to maintain its congressional majority and avoid the perception that the Kirchners are a spent force. Although the polls predict an FpV win with NK on the ticket, they also suggest that he may be a drag on the ruling party's electoral prospects. This may be why NK continues to weigh the political risks of running. If the numbers forecast a slim victory or loss, he may choose to step aside in order to avoid undermining his political reputation. We think it unlikely, however, as doing so would be an admission of political weakness. In any case, it seems increasingly likely the FpV ticket will rely on the ever-popular Governor (and former Vice President) Scioli. KELLY