ARGENTINA: DIM ELECTORAL PROSPECTS FOR KIRCHNERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000443

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2039
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: DIM ELECTORAL PROSPECTS FOR KIRCHNERS
IN SECOND-TIER BATTLEGROUNDS

REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 0347

B. BUENOS AIRES 0144

C. BUENOS AIRES 0429

Classified By: CDA Tom Kelly for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Summary: Argentina's ruling (Kirchner-allied) Victory
Front (FpV) faces bleak prospects in the June 28 midterms in
the second-tier electoral districts of Cordoba, Santa Fe, and
Mendoza provinces (ref A). In Cordoba and Santa Fe, the
second and third most populous provinces, the Kirchners are
paying the price for their prolonged war on the agricultural
sector. In Mendoza, the new alliance between the Kirchners'
nemesis, Vice President Julio Cobos, and the Radical Party
has created a formidable foe. Given the FpV may well suffer
an electoral loss in these populous districts as well as the
federal district (where the FpV has never had support),it
amplifies the need for a big victory in Buenos Aires province
-- but that, too, is in doubt (ref C). End Summary


2. (SBU) The ruling (Kirchner-allied) Victory Front's (FpV)
electoral prospects in the June 28 legislative elections are
slim in Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Mendoza, the country's most
populous provinces after Buenos Aires province and the
federal district (refs A and B). Cordoba and Santa Fe,
representing 8.7% and 8.6% of the total national vote
respectively, will be electing nine national deputies each.
Mendoza, holding 4.2%, will be electing five deputies.
(Note: Buenos Aires province represents 37.1% of the total
national vote and the federal district 9.5%.) In addition to
electing half their deputies, Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Mendoza
are among the eight provinces that will renew all three of
their Senate seats.

Cordoba Peronists Split from the FpV
--------------


3. (SBU) The Kirchners' fair-weather relationship with
Cordoba Governor Juan Schiaretti ruptured recently,
fracturing the Peronists' alliance with the FpV in this key
province with a large agricultural sector. On April 12, the
Governor announced that the local Peronist Party would split
from the FpV to present its own candidate slate under a new
bloc, Cordoba Federal. Schiaretti's tense relations with the
Kirchners began during the Government's 2008 conflict with
the farm sector. Schiaretti, who owes his position to farm
sector support, was highly critical of President Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner's (CFK) proposal in 2008 to increase
agriculture export taxes. He has also publicly pressed the
government for more revenue-sharing funds to pay salaries.
More recently, Schiaretti publicly backed the senatorial
candidacy of Eduardo Mondino, who has long been openly
critical of the Kirchners and resigned his position as
national Human Rights Ombudsman in order to run for the
Senate.


4. (SBU) Governor Schiaretti's remarks, while announcing the
new bloc, erased any doubts over a possible pre-election
reconciliation with the Kirchners. Schiaretti described the
local Peronists' political relationship with the Kirchners as
"broken." In backing Mondino's candidacy, he defiantly
asserted that "Cordoba's Peronists will pick their
candidates. No one from the outside is going to come and
tell us what to do." Recently, the Kirchners appear to have
enlisted Transportation Secretary Ricardo Jaime, a native of
Cordoba, to serve as the FpV's spokesman on the Cordoba
campaign. Jaime told leading daily "La Nacion" in mid-April
that the FpV would seek to stop Mondino's candidacy during a
party congress, anticipated for the end of the month. He
added that if they did not succeed, the FpV would present its
own list of candidates, probably headed by Cordoba mayor
Eduardo Acastello. Local analysts are predicting that it
will be difficult for a Kirchner-backed slate to defeat
Schiaretti's, but there is yet another group of Peronists
headed by former Cordoba mayor Luis Juez that may upset the
balance. When Schiaretti and Juez ran against each other for
governor in 2007, both candidates enjoyed the simultaneous
public support of the Kirchners. When Juez was narrowly
defeated by Schiaretti, he accused the Kirchners of
double-crossing him and has been a vocal critic ever since.
Juez this year sought to align with Cordoba's still-strong
UCR but now says he is running on the Cordoba Civic Front
ticket.

Likely Win for Santa Fe Peronist Dissidents
--------------


5. (SBU) The FpV's chances are not much better in Santa Fe
province, where local Peronists have also split. Rebuffing
overtures from Nestor Kirchner to head the FpV's slate,

presidential aspirant and former FpV member Senator Carlos
Reutemann will lead his own slate of Peronist candidates
against those led by Kirchner-allied national deputy Agustin
Rossi. Senator Reutemann, a former Formula One car racer, is
the most popular Peronist leader in Santa Fe. Polls show
that the Senator might even beat Santa Fe's well-liked
Socialist Governor, Hermes Binner, if the Governor were to
compete. Rossi, on the other hand, is one of the most
unpopular politicians in Santa Fe. In early February, Rossi
was pelted with eggs by farm sector supporters after leaving
a local town council meeting.


6. (SBU) As in Cordoba, Reutemann and other former FpV
members have formed their own bloc, Santa Fe Federal, which
is ideologically similar to Cordoba Federal. Reutemann
officially broke from the FpV in February. Local analysts
predict the race in Santa Fe is his to lose, given
Reutemann's popularity, and they assess the Socialist
candidates, even in alliance with the Radical Party (UCR),
will place second.

Mendoza is Cobos Country
--------------


7. (SBU) Mendoza will also be a difficult battleground for
the Kirchners. In 2007, Peronist Celso Jaque won the
gubernatorial seat by a large margin with Kirchner support.
Jaque, separately from his association with the increasingly
unpopular Kirchners, is suffering his own decline in the
polls due largely to rising crime and violence in the
province. The Radical Party's (UCR) electoral prospects are
good in this province, particularly in light of the recent
agreement between the UCR and Vice President Julio Cobos's
allies to run on a united slate. Cobos hails from Mendoza,
where he was governor until 2007. The UCR expelled VP Cobos
from the party in September 2007 when Cobos agreed to run as
CFK's running mate. The UCR recently lifted this expulsion,
and Cobos is expected to attend the UCR's national convention
on April 17-18. In Mendoza, Cobos is more popular today than
when he left the governorship. Jaque, on the other hand,
received a 1.24 approval rating on a scale of one to ten in
an April 6 provincial poll.


8. (C) Comment: As in the rest of Argentina, party slates in
these three provinces are not yet defined. Polling data is
therefore hard to come by at this early stage. The
conventional wisdom nonetheless is that the Kirchners'
prospects are declining in these three key provinces, as well
as in the federal capital (which we will report septel).
This makes it all the more imperative for them to make a
strong showing in the province of Buenos Aires. There, too,
they are in trouble (ref C),but it remains their strongest
hope for holding on to their tenuous congressional majority.

KELLY