ARGENTINA: ELECTING LEGISLATORS, ARGENTINE STYLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000347

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - ADDED PARA 4 MARKING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2039
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: ELECTING LEGISLATORS, ARGENTINE STYLE

REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 0315

B. BUENOS AIRES 0285

C. BUENOS AIRES 0255

Classified By: Ambassador Wayne for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Summary: Argentina's political class is increasingly
focused on the mid-term national congressional elections,
which had been scheduled for October 25 but which the GOA is
seeking to move up to June 28 (reftels A and B). Immediately
at stake will be one-half of the 256 seats in the Chamber of
Deputies and one-third of the 72 seats in the Senate. Beyond
the seats in the race, the election results are expected to
set the tone for the remaining two years of Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner's government and set the stage for the
2011 presidential election. Assessing this year's challenge
to the Kirchners' majority in both houses of Congress is
difficult, because that majority is made up of the hard-core
Victory Front (FpV) plus some allies whose commitment is less
dependable. In the Lower House, the FpV has more seats up
for election than does the opposition. Out of the 128
national deputy seats up for renewal, the FpV is seeking to
elect 61 of its current 116 seat count, along with the seats
of some allies. From the principal opposition parties, the
Radicals (UCR) have at stake 12 seats, the Civic Coalition
three seats, and the Socialist party and Republican Choice
(PRO) five seats, respectively. In the Senate, 24 seats from
eight provinces are being contested, currently split evenly
between the FpV and the opposition. In addition to the
national midterms, the federal district and 13 of the
country's 23 provinces will also hold local races. End
Summary.

What the Law Says
--------------


2. (SBU) Argentina's Constitution dictates that one-third of
the Senate (or three Senators from eight provinces) and one
half of the Chamber of Deputies are up for election every two
years. Senators serve six-year terms and deputies four
years. The National Electoral Code dictates the election
process, entitling the President to convene elections. All
Argentines between the ages of 18 and 70 are required to
vote; exceptions include condemned prisoners, the mentally
ill, and people who are more than 500 kilometers (300 miles)
from their voting station on Election Day. The Electoral
Code stipulates a fine for not voting. In the 2005
legislative elections, 72.9 percent of registered voters
voted, and 76.4 percent voted in the 2007 presidential
election. The Electoral Code also says national elections
are to be held on the fourth Sunday of October, but Congress
is in the process of approving President Cristina Fernandez
de Kirchner's (CFK) request to move up the elections this
year by four months to June 28. (reftels A and B)

A Dearth of Party Primaries
--------------


3. (SBU) Argentine political parties are no longer legally
obligated to hold internal party elections to determine
candidate slates. Previously, a law established during
former President Eduardo Duhalde's administration (2002-2003)
required open primaries (for party members and non-members).
In December 2006, the law was abrogated with an article
included in the Law of Political Parties that established the
regulations for internal party elections (for party members
only) but made them optional. The revised law stipulated
that any party primaries held are for party affiliates only,
effectively ruling out primaries for the most important
election vehicles - coalitions among several parties. As a
result, few primaries are held. Some parties will do so
nonetheless, including the Peronist Party in Corrientes
province (which held its primary February 16),the Radical
party (UCR) in Buenos Aires City, possibly in Cordoba, and in
Mendoza, and the Socialists in Buenos Aires City. For the
most part, however, party slates are decided by party leaders
behind closed doors.

Who is in the Running
--------------


4. (SBU) Although there are nominally over 40 national
political parties and 650 local parties in Argentina, the
principal candidates in the midterms will probably be backed
by coalitions versus individual parties. It is too early to
provide a definitive list of competing slates as parties have
yet to register and are still in the process of alliance
building and determining their leading candidates. The new
deadline for parties to register their candidates is May 8.
Local analysts agree that there will be three main forces in
the running: the ruling (Kirchner-allied) Victory Front
(FpV),Peronist dissidents, and the Civic Coalition (CC),
aligned with the UCR in some races. When parties strike an
alliance, the subject of how they negotiate their joint
slates becomes a topic of intense speculation among the
political class.

What's At Stake
--------------


5. (SBU) Assessing the challenge to the government's current
majority in both houses of Congress is difficult because it
is made up of the FpV plus a range of small parties whose
alliances constantly shift In the 256-member Lower House,
the FpV has more seats at stake than the opposition. Out of
the 128 national deputy seats up for renewal, the FpV is
seeking to elect 61 of its current 116 seat count, along with
the seats of some allies. Among the principal opposition
sector, the UCR has at stake 12 seats, the CC three seats,
and the Socialist party and PRO elect five seats,
respectively. (Comment: The CFK administration's extended
conflict with the farm sector hurt its comfortable majority
in both houses. Following the October 2007 elections, the
FpV and allies enjoyed a majority of 160 seats in the Lower
House and 51 seats in the Senate. Nonetheless, the FpV has
been able to count on its short-term alliance building to
pass its legislation. Subtracting recent public defections,
the FpV majority may be in the range of 140-145, which
includes its allies. The March 18 vote on moving up this
year's elections provides a current gauge of Kirchner support
in the Chamber: 136 votes. End Comment.) In the 72-member
National Senate, 24 seats are being contested, currently
split evenly between the FpV and the opposition. The Senate
races are not spread evenly throughout the country. Only
eight of Argentina's 23 provinces will have national Senate
races. In those eight provinces, voters will re-elect or
replace all three of their province's national senators. Two
seats go to the coalition or party receiving the most votes
and one to the second-place finisher.


6. (SBU) Local analysts are describing Buenos Aires province
as "the mother of all battles" where 35 national deputy seats
will be renewed, 20 of which are currently held by the
Kirchner-allied FpV. Given Argentina uses the D'Hondt voting
system, the FpV does not need to obtain a certain percentage
in order to win 20 seats because it depends also on the
number of votes that the other parties achieve. (Comment:
The D'Hondt formula allocates seats by calculating averages
for each party list based on the number of votes received.
Whichever list has the highest average gets a seat, and their
average is recalculated given their new seat total. The
process is repeated until the seats have been allocated. End
Comment.) Nonetheless, local analysts and journalists
speculate that the FpV is aiming to achieve at least 30
percent of the votes in Buenos Aires province.


7. (SBU) The federal capital district and the surrounding
province of Buenos Aires represent 46.6 percent of the total
national vote, with the province holding 37.1 percent and the
capital city, where 13 deputies -- three of whom are FpV --
will be elected, holding 9.5 percent, according to 2007
presidential elections statistics.


8. (SBU) The next most populous provinces, Cordoba and Santa
Fe, which represent 8.7 percent and 8.6 percent respectively
of the national vote, will be electing nine deputies each.
The remaining provinces will elect between two and five
deputies each.


9. (SBU) Voters in the eight provinces of Catamarca, Cordoba,
Corrientes, Chubut, La Pampa, Mendoza, Santa Fe, and Tucuman
will elect three senators for six-year terms.

Provincial and Buenos Aires City Midterms
--------------


10. (SBU) The federal district of Buenos Aires City and 13 of
the country's 23 provinces, including Buenos Aires province,
are also set this year to hold their provincial legislative
elections, voting for a total of 315 deputy and 70 senator
seats. Each province and the federal district may decide to
hold its elections at the same time, prior to, or after the
national elections. Corrientes is the only province that
will be electing a Governor and Vice-Governor this year. As
the first in the congressional electoral season, Catamarca's
election on March 8 assumed symbolic importance by pitting
the Kirchner camp against a slate backed by Vice President
Cobos. Despite NK's personal involvement, the FpV suffered a
decisive defeat in these local elections (ref C).

Voting Argentine Style
--------------

12. (SBU) The elections are overseen by the National
Elections Board, whose president is Alejandro Tullio. The
board drafts citizens to staff the voting stations and allows
parties to deploy representatives -- known as "fiscales de
mesa" ("table auditors") -- who observe the voting and vote
counting. The smaller political parties often do not have
enough resources or supporters to post observers at each
voting station in the country. When a voter enters the
voting station, a "fiscal de mesa" checks the voter's
identification, registers the voter, and directs the voter to
the voting room. Voters enter the "dark room" where they
find piles of ballots from different parties as each party
provides its own ballot. The voter chooses the ballot for
which he intends to vote, folds it, and places it in an
envelope. The sealed envelope is then placed in the ballot
box just outside the dark room. If a voter wishes to vote
for candidates from different ballots, he must tear the
ballots to separate the candidates he wants. Then the torn
pieces of ballot are placed in the voting envelope.


13. (C) The opposition has proposed changing the current
multi-ballot system to a single ballot, a measure they
believe would simplify the process while reducing the
potential for fraud, which the opposition claimed occurred
during the 2007 presidential elections. (Comment: While few
contest the overall results of the 2007 election, there were
reports that some poorer voters arrived at the polls with the
ballot already pre-marked for them. Other voters were
reportedly paid to put a pile of the opposing slates' paper
ballots in their pockets when they left the voting room. End
Comment.) On February 26, the opposition proposed
legislation to create a single ballot as part of a national
electoral reform effort. Buenos Aires City Mayor Mauricio
Macri is also advocating such legislation for the City. Both
Minister of Justice Anibal Fernandez and Minister of Interior
Florencio Randazzo have publicly described the single ballot
as "impractical" in districts with numerous candidates
because their names would not fit on one ballot. (Comment:
A single ballot would greatly reduce the potential for fraud.
It would also cost less than the current system of printing
multiple ballots. Indeed, there is no rational argument
against moving to a single ballot. End Comment.)


14. (SBU) Aiming at reducing the potential for fraud in the
midterms, some in the opposition are also calling for outside
election observers. The Civic Coalition (CC) submitted a
petition to the Electoral Court demanding that Organization
of American States (OAS) observers be present for the
midterms. The Electoral Court accepted the petition, which
it has forwarded to the Ministry of Foreign Relations.
Currently, Argentine regulations do not provide for external
observers for its domestic elections. (Comment: Former
presidential candidate Elisa Carrio of the CC called for an
OAS electoral observation mission for the 2007 presidential
elections. According to local press reports, during a recent
trip to Washington DC, Carrio was told by the OAS that it
could not deploy an electoral observation mission without a
formal request from the GOA. End Comment.)

WAYNE