ARGENTINE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES APPROVES NEW DATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000315 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2039 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES APPROVES NEW DATE FOR CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS AMID POLITICAL TUMULT REF: BUENOS AIRES 0285 Classified By: Ambassador Wayne for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Argentina's Lower House approved President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's (CFK) proposal to move up the date of this year's national legislative elections from October 25 to June 28. With a vote of 136 in favor, 109 against, and eight abstentions, the ruling Victory Front alliance (FpV) succeeded in obtaining the required absolute majority to pass. This vote occurred on the same day that a government minister denied remarks by a pro-Kirchner activist indicating that CFK would resign if government forces fared poorly in the election. The bill advanced through the Lower House against a backdrop of increasing public protests against rising crime and deteriorating GOA relations with the farm sector (septel). A crowd estimated between 8,000 to 12,000 assembled outside the Government House to demand greater government action against crime and similar protests took place in at least seven cities around Argentina, including outside the Presidential residence in the Buenos Aires suburbs of Olivos. While the Lower House voted on her bill, CFK went to La Plata, the capital city of Buenos Aires province, to unveil her proposal for new broadcasting legislation before a partisan crowd and (convoked) resident Ambassadors (septel). End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On March 18, after ten hours of debate, Argentina's Lower House approved President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's (CFK) proposal to move up this year's national legislative elections by four months from October 25 to June ¶28. With a vote of 136 in favor, 109 against, and eight abstentions, the ruling Victory Front alliance (FpV) succeeded in obtaining the required approval by the absolute majority (129) of the 256 deputies. The FpV alliance has 116 seats in the Lower House and was able to obtain the majority needed thanks to the votes of some 20 allies. The bill now goes to the Senate, which is expected to bring it to the floor for a plenary vote on March 26. The government is confident it will win the support of an absolute majority (37) of the 72 senators, according to local press reports. ¶3. (SBU) The evening prior to the Chamber's vote, Peronist Party (PJ) President and former President Nestor Kirchner (NK) defended the change of election date while attacking the opposition during a PJ rally in La Plata, the capital of Buenos Aires province. NK said voters on June 28 can choose between "governability and an outdated (neoliberal) model." ¶4. (SBU) Public debate on the electoral change has been extremely partisan, though the opposition has focused on the potential damage to democratic institutions in making this change. In addition to his public comments, NK is thought to have raised the partisan stakes by suggesting that a loss in June might lead to CFK's resignation. Leading "piquetero" social activist Emilio Persico was widely believed to be paraphrasing private comments made by NK when he publicly said that if the Kirchners lost the June 28 election, "(Vice President) Cobos and the Clarin group" could take over governing the country. Despite Cobos's popularity, the press described this as a rallying cry to Peronist fence-sitters and to independents who might be concerned over the prospect of a return to sudden changes of government. Persico appeared to have gone too far, however, as Minister of Interior Florencio Randazzo quickly sought to counter Persico's remarks, saying "I do not agree that we have to leave if we do not have a favorable election." While the Congress Debated, Citizens Protested Crime -------------- - ¶5. (SBU) CFK's bill advanced through the Lower House against a backdrop of growing public frustration and social unrest. The same day as the vote, there were large demonstrations against rising crime in key electoral provinces. In the Plaza de Mayo in front of the Government House, 8,000 - 12,000 people assembled to demand greater government action against crime. Some 300 pot bangers convened in front of the presidential residence in Olivos, and there were also simultaneous protests in the key port city of Mar del Plata in Buenos Aires province (where a crowd of 2000 assembled) and in various cities in Cordoba, San Juan, and Santa Fe provinces. ¶6. (SBU) At the same time, the government's relations with the farm sector have grown increasingly tense. A day before the vote, maverick "self-convoked" farmers held 30 roadblocks to protest the GOA's lack of dialogue. Leading daily "La Nacion" reported that the opposition, realizing it would lose in the Lower House vote on CFK's bill, is focusing its attention on the conflict with the farm sector. About 100 opposition deputies are seeking to hold a special session on agricultural export taxes. Although they do not yet have the support of the 129 required to force quorum, the opposition deputies seek to draw attention to the government's refusal to consider any reduction in export duties on soy and sunflower, perhaps the agricultural sector's top demand. (More information on this issue is provided septel.) And CFK Rolled Out New Broadcasting Bill -------------- ¶7. (SBU) While the Lower House voted on her bill, CFK, accompanied by her husband/predecessor NK, her national cabinet, allied governors and mayors, and (convoked) resident Ambassadors, went to La Plata to unveil her new broadcasting bill (septel). She invited public comment on the lengthy draft over the next 60 days before submitting the bill to Congress. The bill is widely viewed as another salvo in the Kirchners' ongoing feud with major media groups, particularly the dominant Clarin empire, as CFK and her officials attacked "monopoly" media organizations. ¶8. (SBU) The opposition sharply criticized the GOA's motivations for advancing this bill. Civic Coalition Deputy Patricia Bullrich said, "in order to generate a new broadcasting law, we need a democratic climate, which today we do not see. The Government wants to put conditions on the media." The President of the Chamber's Committee on Free Speech, Silvana Giudici, said, "we do not believe the administration in 60 days will send the bill to Congress. This announcement is part of a political strategy to intimidate and threaten the media." Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The Kirchners' sudden rescheduling of elections is yet another example of the weakness of Argentina's democratic institutions and the malleability of its rules. Adding a note /*electoral decisions how to address the concerns of the agricultural sector. Indeed, there has been much media speculation that the sudden onset of congressional campaigns will effectively marginalize the farm protests until the elections conclude. WAYNE