(C) ARGENTINE BUSINESSMAN ON WORRIES ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000256

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAGR ECON EFIN AR
SUBJECT: (C) ARGENTINE BUSINESSMAN ON WORRIES ABOUT
IMPENDING CRISIS, POSSIBLE CABINET SHAKE-UP

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) A very well-connected Argentine businessman told the
Ambassador March 5 that senior GoA ministers are privately
very concerned about the eventual effects of the world
economic crisis on Argentina. This businessman has regular
access to a wide range of GoA ministers and has been used for
various informal initiatives by the GoA. This individual has
regularly provided accurate perspectives on the Kirchners and
top GoA officials.


2. (C) The source said that Interior Minister Florencio
Randazzo, for example, is privately very concerned that the
Argentine economy could start to detriorate seriously in the
second half of 2009, causing social tensions to rise, when
the compounded effects of the global crisis hit Argentina.
(Randazzo has become the government's effective Cabinet
spokesman in recent months.) His private concern about the
crisis is the reason that Randazzo, along with Production
Minister Giorgi, has pushed for agreement with the farmers
and participated in the talks himself. In his view, the GOA
needs to settle problems now. (Comment: According to the
businessman, privately, Randazzo reportedly confides that he
would like out of the government, but he knows that his die
is cast with the Kirchners and he must do all he can to help
the government survive.)


3. (C) Others in the GoA, including Internal Commerce
Secretary Guillermo Moreno, continue to argue for a hard line
on the farm dispute and other issues and would be happy to
see things blow up if they cannot prevail, according to the
businessman. The key factor in deciding which way the wind
blows inside the government is former president Nestor
Kirchner. Over the last week, the ex-president's concerns
over the direction of the global economy have tilted him more
in favor of working toward agreement with the farmers and
toward letting the peso drop in value against the dollar.
Unfortunately, Nestor Kirchner changes course on such matters
fairly often, the businessman argued, so it is not yet clear
how far the dialogue with the farmers can go. Kirchner will
adjust his moves to achieve tactical advantage as Argentina
moves toward mid-term congressional elections in October.


4. (C) Concerning internal GoA politics, the businessman
says Nestor has been searching for someone to replace Cabinet
Minister Sergio Massa since early January. Nestor thinks
Massa has too high a public profile and is not sufficiently
loyal: "you are with me or against me," is Kirchner's
attitude. However, so far, he has not found a willing and
appropriate taker to replace Massa, according to the
businessman. As part of this effort to reconfigure the
government, Kirchner has also tried to lure former cabinet
chief Alberto Fernandez back into government because he wants
Fernandez to help secure victory in the congressional
elections. Alberto Fernandez, however, sees Nestor's offer
as a poison chalice. He is doing all he can to resist
without offending. At present, according to the businessman,
Alberto Fernandez does not think he can successfully bring
about the needed changes in the first couple's governing
style before the October congressional elections. After
those elections, there may be more opportunity for change,
Fernandez reportedly calculates, if he can resist Nestor
until then.
WAYNE