MEDIA REACTION: WEEK OF DECEMBER 1 - 7; 12/07/09; BUENOS

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001328 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KPAO KMDR PREL SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WEEK OF DECEMBER 1 - 7; 12/07/09; BUENOS AIRES SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT OBAMA'S ADDRESS ON AFGHANISTAN; COPENHAGEN CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT; HONDURAS; BOLIVIA; 12/07/09; BUENOS AIRES ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT International opinion pieces are mostly related to President Obama's Afghanistan address; expectations about the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit; the situation in Honduras; and the outcome of yesterday's elections in Honduras. ¶2. AFGHANISTAN ADDRESS - "Afghanistan: Bush's continuity with Obama's face" Leading "Clarin" carries a full-page op-ed by its international editor Marcelo Cantelmi who writes (12/05),"Terrorism was the argument used by US neo-conservative leaders to extend the imperial power under the Bush administration. In spite of their defeat, President Barack Obama has decided to use the same formula by sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan (and Pakistan) and holding true the myths invented by former President Bush to justify a military front that continued in Iraq. No sign indicates that Obama will be victorious where others have been defeated, but this is this Democrat's view on what the US should do to recover its full status of a superpower. "In his West Point address Obama mentioned Al Qaeda as the enemy he wants to defeat through a huge military deployment. However, US and European central intelligence agencies agree that Al Qaeda no longer represents a threat. Whether Obama believes it or not, nothing will be obtained in Afghanistan by using the military solution: what is required is another scenario in which foreign troops are replaced by investments that can build the future." - "Obama will decide the war in Afghanistan in the next 18 months" Leading "Clarin" publishes an op-ed by a prestigious political analyst, Jorge Castro, who highlights (12/06) "The Afghanistan war will be decided during the next 18 months (July 2011) not because the US military can win over that period but because the bottom line is changing the nature of the conflict (in which the Taliban have made a remarkable progress) or losing in the long run. Obama's plan is a counterinsurgent policy in the framework of a major policy aimed at building a nation. 
 "An era of irregular, persistent wars is emerging, in which the US conventional supremacy is impotent. To fight in asymmetrical confrontations, the US military power should also be asymmetrical. Its army is compelled to learn from the Taliban." ¶3. CLIMATE CHANGE - "Climate Change Summit and a colossal challenge" Luisa Corradini, Paris-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (12/06),"In Copenhagen, the world will have to reach an agreement on a global strategy aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions. This means an extraordinary political challenge for the international community, which will have to overcome the antagonistic position of countries having colliding interests. The Copenhagen Climate Change Summit represents a new hope. For the first time since scientists launched their warning, the US seems now determined to reach an international agreement aimed at 'de-carbonizing' its economy. Along with China, the US is the largest world producer of GHG emissions. Each of them produces 6,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year and both account for 40% of global emissions. "The second hope is that the projected Copenhagen agreement is in principle much more ambitious than the Kyoto Protocol, which it should replace in 2012. "The innovative idea about Copenhagen Climate Change Summit is the creation of an intermediate category of countries that will include the 'big emerging countries,' such as India and Brazil, to persuade them to assume their own commitments." - "Climate Change Summit kicks off tomorrow amid optimism" Gustavo Sierra, on special assignment in Copenhagen for leading "Clarin," comments (12/06),"Obama saved the Copenhagen Summit. When everything seemed to indicate that it was going to end up with an unsubstantial agreement with no signature whatsoever, US President confirmed he will arrive in the Danish capital city at a crucial time, when other 60 Chiefs of State are present between December 17 and 18, to assume the commitment that his country (the largest world pollutant) will lower its greenhouse gas emissions triggering global warming. "The White House has announced it is willing to submit 100 billion dollars per year to emerging countries through 2025 to finance the reconversion of their industries. The US commitment was possible after the US reached an agreement (of which no details were made public) with China (the second largest world pollutant) and India (the fourth largest world pollutant) whereby they will also lower their carbon dioxide emissions." - "Argentina seeks funds to mitigate the impact" Laura Rocha, columnist of daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (12/07),"Argentina will arrive to the Copenhagen Summit will share expectations with the entire G-77 and China: obtaining funding for the adaptation and mitigation of the climate change effects and demanding more ambitious reduction commitments from developed countries. "Nazareno Castillo, Environment Secretariat's Climate Change Head, one of the members of the Argentine delegation attending the Denmark Climate Change Summit, said: 'Lack of a measurable commitment from the US to cut GHG emissions, lack of definition of commitments for developed countries in the Kyoto Protocol's second period and lack of clarity about the kind of participation of developing countries on global mitigation actions are currently the focus of larger attention in the international negotiation field. Responsibilities are common although different according to the country.'" ¶4. HONDURAS - "Three for the price of one" Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by international analyst Jorge Elias, who writes (12/06),"Honduras has now three presidents: one abroad, another who was elected in elections that have not been acknowledged by most countries in the international community and, third, a de facto president. In line with the international community, which supports the legitimate government and rejects the de facto government, the US now makes against Honduras the same charges Brazil made against the US - they feel disappointed. US Assistant Secretary for Western Hemispheric affairs Arturo Valenzuela, whose confirmation on Capitol Hill is being delayed for having condemned the coup d'etat, concludes the acknowledgement of the president-elect does not invalidate the restoration of the ousted president. "Honduras has had a pre-emptive coup d'etat in view of the possibility that Zelaya could eliminate a constitutional banning for his re-election through a constitutional amendment allowing for a plebiscite. "What is the difference between a pre-emptive coup d'etat against Zelaya and George W. Bush's pre-emptive war on Iraq in view of the possibility that a tyrant such as Saddam Hussein could hide WMD and become a partner of Osama bin Laden? Fears encourage a coup and lies trigger war." ¶5. BOLIVIA - "Why did Evo win?" Left-of-center "Pagina 12" carries an opinion piece by political analyst Atilio A. Boron, who opines (12/07),"The outcome of Bolivian elections has marked at least three milestones in Bolivia's history: 1) Evo Morales is the first democratic president who has been re-elected for two terms in a row; 2) he is the first president who obtained a larger percentage of votes than when elected for the first time (53,7%); and 3) he is the first president who obtained an overwhelming representation at the Plurinational Legislative Assembly. "All this turns Evo Morales in the most powerful president in Bolivia's history. Obviously enough, this will not prevent the Department of State from reiterating its already known criticism of the Bolivian democracy's 'faulty' institutional quality,' Evo's populism and the need to improve the country's political mechanism to guarantee popular will. "What lies behind this impressive 'machine' to win elections? A government that has honored its election promises and that for this same reason has developed an active social policy." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires MARTINEZ MARTINEZ