HUNGARY - INPUT FOR THE QDR'S GLOBAL CONTEXT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000896 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE JAMIE MOORE AND S/P T. ANDREWS. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL EAID ECON SOCI HU SUBJECT: HUNGARY - INPUT FOR THE QDR'S GLOBAL CONTEXT SECTION REF: STATE 120172 BUDAPEST 00000896 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) We welcome the opportunity to contribute to the Global Context section of the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. Our input is coded to the questions posed by reftel. ¶A. (U) To what degree will/can technology empower individuals, or civil society in Hungary to exercise a more active role in public life? Are Hungarian officials and citizens attuned to (or indifferent) to this issue? Is Hungary supportive of or hostile to expansion of access to social networks or other similar tools? What non-state actors will be playing critical roles over the next two decades? (U) Internet and personal computer use are constantly increasing in Hungary, and a virtual cell phone operator has just made cell phone services available to remote rural areas. Some political parties already use web-based tools, e.g., blogs, chat-rooms, and email chains, to mobilize voters and influence public opinion. We expect that all parties will have a stronger on-line presence in the future. The Hungarian government is building its e-services capability. Data protection concerns have not limited access to services or censored content. What role non-state actors might play is still hard to determine. Commercial content providers are expected to focus more on the Internet in the next several decades. ¶B. (U) What attitude do critical publics in Hungary display toward the so-called rising powers - India, China, and Brazil, for example - and how do they perceive other important international players, including key international organizations? (SBU) The Hungarian public has not much focused on the rise of India or Brazil. Some Hungarian business interests, however, would like to see their country as a "bridge" for China's entry into Central Europe. Hungary's trade with China is growing and expected to increase further once significant Chinese rail and cargo airport investments are completed. (SBU) Hungary's relations with Russia are more problematical. Hungary is -- and is expected to remain -- highly dependent on Russian natural gas, which constitutes 80 percent of its needs. Russian-Hungarian political and trade relations ebb and flow based on the leadership of both countries. Hungarians recognize that, because of its proximity, whatever happens in Russia will impact their country. (SBU) Confidence in NATO remains high. However, the initial euphoria following Hungary's accession to the European Union appears to have faded and anti-globalization sentiment is increasing. ¶C. (U) What does Hungary identify as the most important issues (both internal and external) critical to its own development and to international development writ large? (SBU) Two of the most important strategic issues for Hungary are stability in the Western Balkans and energy security. Domestically, Hungary is working to address its large level of national debt, restore its gross domestic product growth rates to pre-2008 economic crisis levels, increase its economic competitiveness, and join the Euro zone. Public corruption is also a significant issue. Finally, there is growing awareness that Hungary's large Roma community must be better integrated to achieve improved economic development and social cohesion. ¶D. (U) Wht is the Hungarian position on climate change issues, or on any resource conflict questions? What steps is the Hungarian government taking to deal with potential future demographic challenges? (U) Hungary ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1994. Hungary committed under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by six percent in the period of 2008-2012 compared to a base period of 1985-1987. Partly due to the closure of many inefficient plants following the collapse of communism in 1990, Hungary had a large surplus of Kyoto emission quotas, the sale of which generated over $150 million for the Hungarian government. The government used this revenue in 2009 to establish under the auspices of the Ministry of Environment the "Green Investment," which will support projects that cut greenhouse gas emissions from residential and government BUDAPEST 00000896 002.2 OF 002 buildings by improving energy efficiency and using renewable energy sources. (U) Non-governmental organizations have helped improve environmental awareness over the last 20 years. One effective government program has been a joint effort between the Ministry of Environment and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences entitled "Global Climate Changes: Hungarian Impacts and Responses," which focused on how climate change effects the environment, agricultural production, human health, households, and the economy. However, more could be done to promote awareness of the potential impact of climate change on Hungary. (U) There is sharp concern in Hungary about the country's declining birth rate, and the opposition Fidesz party is likely to propose tax/benefit changes to encourage larger families. ¶E. (U) To what extent does "backsliding" pose a threat to local democratic movement (or to what degree does Hungary perceive this as a threat elsewhere)? (SBU) Hungary broke with the Soviet Union in 1989 when Parliament approved a multi-party system, and it became the first country to withdraw from the Warsaw Pact. All Russian troops left Hungary by June 1991, and the country began to look westward for new relationships and allies. Hungary joined NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. It has a stable multi-party democracy with a unicameral parliament elected every four years. The Parliament elects the president, who serves a five-year term. The Constitutional Court can annul laws passed by Parliament that are determined not to be in accordance with the constitution. After five free elections since the end of communism, Hungary is preparing for its sixth national election in 2010. There are no signs of any "backsliding" that would pose a threat to Hungarian democracy; however, the rise of the far-right Jobbik party and its associated para-military group, the Magyar Garda, is a troubling sign of how economic dislocation can foment extremism. LEVINE