HUGE UNCONVENTIONAL GAS POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUDAPEST 000885 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR S/CEE FOR AMB MORNINGSTAR AND REBECCA NEFF, EEB/ESC FOR DOUG HENGEL AND ALEX GREENSTEIN, EUR/CE FOR JMOORE, EUR/ERA FOR SJOHNSON. COMMERCE FOR HILLEARY SMITH. ENERGY FOR MAPICELLI AND MCOHEN. PLEASE PASS TO NSC JHOVENIER. E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2019 TAGS: ENRG ECON EPET PGOV HU SUBJECT: HUGE UNCONVENTIONAL GAS POTENTIAL LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST THAT... POTENTIAL REF: STATE 111742 Classified By: Economic Officer Jeffrey M. Jordan, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: There are substantial amounts of natural gas in the tight gas sands of southeastern Hungary, but initial tests to determine the technical feasibility of developing the resources have not been promising. End Summary. SIGNIFICANT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS RESERVES ¶2. (SBU) Hungary's tight gas sands, primarily concentrated in the Mako Trough and Bekes Basin in southeastern Hungary, have attracted the interest of several foreign energy firms, including ExxonMobil and Hungarian Horizon Energy (HHE),a subsidiary of U.S.-owned Aspect Energy. Most of the exploration and test drilling to date has occurred in the Mako Trough, where Hungarian oil and gas giant MOL and Canadian exploration firm Falcon Oil and Gas (headquartered in Denver) began exploration work several years ago. In early 2008, the companies formed joint-ventures with ExxonMobil to bring its experience and technological prowess to bear in developing Mako's natural gas resources. A MOL-Exxon partnership operates on Mako's western side and a MOL-Falcon-Exxon venture in the east. In the Bekes Basin, just east of the Mako Trough, MOL and HHE are commencing testing in their respective exploration blocks. HHE entered into a joint-venture with ExxonMobil to explore its Bekes Basin acreage in late 2008. MOL is also completing initial technical studies at three smaller sites: the Derecske Basin in eastern Hungary and the Zala and Drava Basins in southwestern Hungary. ¶3. (C) By all accounts, Mako's gas potential is significant. A 2008 study by the Dallas-based Scotia Group, which was commissioned by Falcon, estimates that Mako contains 490 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas recoverable with a 90 percent probability. (Note: This figure is a reduction from Scotia's 2006 study that put the figure closer to 620 bcm. End note.) According to MOL's own estimates Mako's potential is "at least" 340 bcm, 30 percent of which could be recovered in the next thirty years by drilling fifty wells per year. Robert Page (protect),Managing Director for ExxonMobil's exploration project in Hungary, told Econoff that he believes the Scotia Group's estimate to be a bit high, but declined to provide his own estimate. We have not been able to obtain estimates of unconventional gas potential at other fields beyond Mako. ¶4. (SBU) MOL estimates that Mako, if commercially viable, could begin producing small quantities of gas around 2014. According to Chief of Strategy Laszlo Varro, Mako gas could offset declines in Hungary's conventional production and perhaps cover a portion of the country's demand growth prior to 2020. Hungary's current production of about 2 bcm/year is expected to drop to 1 bcm/year over the next decade. Hungary consumes about 13-14 bcm/year, about 80 percent of which is imported from Russia. Beyond 2020, Varro believes Mako could provide adequate volumes to cover a significant share of domestic demand and allow for some exports. VERY DIFFICULT AND COSTLY TO EXPLORE AND PRODUCE ¶5. (SBU) Producing the natural gas contained at Mako and similar fields, however, would be technically challenging and very costly. The gas is trapped in small pockets dispersed throughout a dense rock formation, at extremely high temperatures, and at a depth of 3000-6000 meters--more than twice the depth of most conventional gas fields. Eventual recovery of the gas would be accomplished by so-called "unconventional" methods based on horizontal drilling technology and hydraulic fracturing of the rock to "unzip" the gas. Over the course of the project's roughly thirty-year productive lifespan, it would require as many as BUDAPEST 00000885 002 OF 003 2000 wells at a cost of $8-12 million per well--roughly four times the cost of a conventional well due to the depths involved. EARLY INDICATIONS UNPROMISING ¶6. (C) Fracture simulations to date have yielded disappointing results. The Exxon-MOL-Falcon joint-venture commenced fracture simulation and testing operations on the eastern side of the Mako Trough in September 2009, based on Falcon's earlier positive results from six exploratory wells at depths ranging from 3600-6100 meters. In early November, however, the partnrs announced that the series of three tests had yielded unpromising results; gas flow rates relative to water flow appeared too low to make the project viable. The conclusion of the third fracture test marked the end of the partners' $50 million initial work program in the eastern half of Mako. According to Page, Exxon will further evaluate the results and determine whether or not to proceed to the next stage of testing in eastern Mako. According to MOL contacts, initial tests MOL and Exxon have conducted in the western part of Mako have failed to yield any usable data, in one case because a drill bit became stuck in a dense layer of rock and in another because the fracturing failed. ¶7. (C) The HHE-Exxon joint venture recently drilled a well and conducted a fracture simulation in the Bekes Basin for a total cost of $30 million. Prior to the test, Exxon's Robert Page had indicated to Econoff that prospects in Bekes appeared better than in Mako due to more favorable geography. According to geologists at HHE, however, the tests yielded results similar to those at Mako: a rapid decrease in gas flow and too much water. Based on these results, HHE contacts have begun to doubt that the deep gas at Mako and Bekes will ever be produced. The gas is clearly there, but the geology prevents it from being developed. HHE does not currently plan to drill any additional wells in connection with unconventional exploration in Bekes, but HHE geologists state that the company may instead seek to develop the field as a geothermal resource. According to local press, Exxon has also applied for a license to develop geothermal energy at the Mako well site. MOL TAKES LONG VIEW ON HUNGARIAN DEEP GAS ¶7. (C) Against recent setbacks, Varro emphasized MOL's long-term view toward the development of the Mako gas resources: the gas is there, but it may take some time to develop and employ the technology needed to extract it. A resource as significant as Mako would normally require 10-12 years of lead time before large-scale production could begin, and serious exploration at Mako only started about one year ago, he said. He added that "nobody ever got rich betting against technology," and that Exxon, with its technology and expertise, is crucial to the project's success. According to Varro, MOL's decision to continue investing in the project amid the financial crisis, when it has had to scale back other capital investment projects, underlines its belief in Mako's potential and its commitment to developing the gas resources there. ¶8. (C) In addition to the challenge of getting the technology right, Varro identified as a key hurdle Hungary's lack of the "professional infrastructure" necessary to begin producing on a large scale. Contrasting the Mako project with the highly successful Barnett Shale project in Texas, Varro noted that a key factor in the latter project was the extensive availability of highly-skilled, experienced labor and highly-specialized equipment at the project site. In the case of Mako, Exxon is incurring significant costs to transport much of this equipment from Texas to Hungary. As the project approaches the production phase, such key inputs would need to become more readily available locally, as would the range of relevant oilfield supply and service firms needed to sustain the operation of such a large number of BUDAPEST 00000885 003 OF 003 wells. With regard to physical infrastructure, Varro noted that Mako is fairly close to a major pipeline hub which, with some pipeline connections to the gas fields, would enable the gas to be distributed domestically or exported. ¶9. (C) Comment: The development of Hungary's deep gas resources, if technically feasible and commercially viable, could someday represent a real game-changer as Hungary seeks to reduce its reliance on gas imported from Russia. For the time being, however, Hungary should continue pressing forward on a range of other measures to boost its energy security, including alternate sources and routes for imported gas, an increased role for renewable energy sources, and improved efficiency in its energy consumption. Mako may yet provide the hoped-for relief for Hungary's gas concerns, but that time is likely to be in the distant future. End comment. LEVINE