HUNGARIAN PLANS TO SUPPLEMENT AFGHANISTAN

S E C R E T BUDAPEST 000876 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE JAMIE MOORE AND EUR/RPM RAPHAEL CARLAND. PLEASE PASS TO JEFF HOVENIER AT THE NSC E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2019 TAGS: PREL MOPS MARR NATO AF HU SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN PLANS TO SUPPLEMENT AFGHANISTAN CONTRIBUTION REF: BUDAPEST 845 Classified By: Political Officer Jon Martinson, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (S/NF) Hungarian Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai committed to send 200 additional troops to Afghanistan during his meeting with the Vice-President in Washington December 4. A senior MOD interlocutor provided PolOff a background paper prepared for the Prime Minister's meeting with the Vice-President, outlining current commitments and plans to meet the 200 troop plus-up. The contact stated that the briefing document was being provided without MOD knowledge. ¶2. (S/NF) The background paper details the following unofficial translation: BEGIN TEXT 1) Based on current 2010 budget planning, the MOD commits to continue its PRT with 237 personnel, the currently deployed OMLT with 30 personnel, and 56 individual assignments ( Note. unspecified. End note.) for a total of 323. 2) In the interest of meeting the Hungarian military's Alliance commitments and NATO joint goals - which the NATO Secretary General and the U.S. Charge d'Affaires outlined - it is necessary to create the budgetary and political conditions to expand the needed participation in ISAF. We consider the following increase of 126 personnel achievable in the first half of 2010: - three staff officers, two engineer officers; 12 Air Force training personnel, 12 personnel to the Combat Service Support School. - six personnel for individual assignment (Note. Unspecified. End note.) - 16 Special Forces personnel (two rotations) - 40 personnel to provide security during parliamentary elections - 35 personnel to provide a national support element We consider the following 100-130 personnel increase achievable in the second half of 2010: - A second Operational Mentoring and Liaison team (OMLT) (30-60 personnel) - the number dependent on U.S. National Guard participation - 70 personnel to provide security at the Kabul International Airport (KIA). If according to ISAF planning, the Afghan National Army takes responsibility for KIA security in April 2010, the Hungarian personnel could undertake other assignments. With these additions, the Hungarian military presence in Afghanistan would expand by 200 personnel in 2010. 3) There is one condition asociated with the above troop increase. We have examined the planned Combined Forces decrease in the Western Balkans. It became clear that any large decrease beyond the already agreed-to significant draw down would be politically damaging and impossible due to already concluded agreements. Based on the current significant reductions, the 2010 planned number in the Western Balkans: KFOR (Kosovo) - NATO is: - February 1 - October 31 2010 (GATE 1): 227-252 personnel - November 1 2010 - December 31 2011 (GATE 2): 241-266 personnel. EUFOR ALTHEA (Bosnia-Hercegovina) - EU: January 1 - December 31 2010: 165 personnel from January 1 2011: 23 personnel 4) To support these deployments it will be necessary to secure supplementary budgetary allocations to cover military provisions, accommodation and additional defense procurements, operational and pay and allowances expenditures, as these are not included in the current 2010 budget. Without suitable equipment, training, and accommodation support, not one additional soldier will be able to go to Afghanistan. The preliminary cost estimates: - Procurement of military provisions: 4.5-5 billion forints (USD 25 million),which must be allocated in 2009 in order to be ready to deploy by the proposed timetable. - Accommodation and additional defensive procurement: 4 billion forints (USD 20 million) for Pol-e Khomri, Mazar-E Sharif and the Forward Operating Base, which is necessary to secure in 2009. - Operational and pay and benefits: 8-10 billion forints (USD 50 million) with and additional two billion forints (USD 10 million) needed to cover 2010 pay and benefits requirements. Meeting political and budgetary requirements 1) There is already agreement between the Socialist (MSZP), Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) and Free Democrats (SZDSZ): they support the expansion of the Afghan mission. The parliamentary faction leaders of FIDESZ and the Christian Democratic Peoples Party (KDNP) have taken place, their position will be formulated on December 8, and until then they are refusing to respond to questions from the press. 2) Following a Flag Officer conference, agreement is required with the Prime Minister, with the participation of the Finance Minister, in order to discuss implementation. The proposed meeting time frame is December 9-10. December 2, 2009 Dr. Szekeres Imre, Defense Minister END TEXT ¶6. (S/NF) Comment. Among the 200 additional troops the Prime Minster committed in his meeting with the Vice-President, at least 45 were already included in the MOD's 2010 planning process. These include the Special Forces contingent, the Air Force personnel to provide helicopter training, and the staff officer positions. Additionally, although the MOD leadership previously stated that the second OMLT would not deploy until 2011 due to budgetary constraints (reftel), according to the Prime Minister's background paper, this deployment will now occur in the second half 2010. In past discussions with Embassy representatives, the Hungarians have underscored their desire to replicate the Ohio National Guard/Hungarian OMLT currently in Baghlan province. The current MOD document suggests, that while U.S. National Guard participation is a possibility, a Hungarian-only OMLT may be now in the offering. Our MOD contacts tell us that the discussions with the Prime Minister and Finance Minister began December 8, but final decision are not expected until early January 2010. ¶7. (S/NF) Comment continued. The Prime Minister's announced Afghanistan troop increase received an ambiguous response from the opposition FIDESZ party. Despite the fact that the briefing memo says that FIDESZ parliamentary faction leader Tibor Navracsics had been briefed in advance of the Prime Minister's announcement. Navracsics stated the following day that "parliamentary approval was necessary...Bajnai did not take into account that Hungary is a democracy." In a meeting with the Charge, the Prime Minster's Foreign Policy Advisor, David Koranyi, asked for Embassy assistance in bringing FIDESZ's public statements into line. Navracsics' political posturing aside, a previous parliamentary decision left the decision on deploying troops under NATO or UN flags with the Government. There is a long-standing agreement between the parliamentary parties that the number of Hungarian troops deployed abroad will not exceed 1000. Currently there are 855 deployed internationally and adding 200 in Afghanistan without reductions in other deployments would leave the total number slightly more than 1000. However, this would not be the first occasion when the total deployed number exceeded the ceiling. Embassy will continue efforts to support the Prime Minister's plans on all fronts. End comment. LEVINE