SZEGED - PROSPERITY, POLITICS, AND DARK UNDERTONES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000822 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE JAMIE MOORE. PASS TO NSC JEFF HOVENIER. E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2012 TAGS: PGOV HU SUBJECT: SZEGED - PROSPERITY, POLITICS, AND DARK UNDERTONES REF: A. BUDAPEST 760 ¶B. BUDAPEST 787 Classified By: Political Counselor Paul C. O'Friel for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The prosperous university town of Szeged is home to Laszlo Botka, one of Hungary's rising young Socialist politicians who is positioning himself to pick up the pieces after his party's all but certain defeat in next April's parliamentary elections. However, there is a darker, disturbing phenomenon underway. The far-right Jobbik party appears to be gaining ground among university students, attracting supporters and sympathizers with its simple nationalistic and anti-establishment message. END SUMMARY. SZEGED - PICTURE OF BOURGEOIS PROSPERITY -------------- ¶2. (U) The southeastern university town of Szeged, Hungary's fourth-largest city, is the picture of bourgeois prosperity, with its carefully manicured parks, pastel-painted houses, and opulent, Habsburg-era town hall. The university, Szeged's role as a service supplier and processor for the surrounding rich agricultural region, and trade links with neighboring Serbia and Romania have largely minimized the impact of Hungary's economic crisis. Unemployment here is five percent, compared to a national average of over 10 percent, and -- unlike other cities -- Szeged's population is growing. RISING SOCIALIST STAR POSITIONING HIMSELF TO PICK UP THE PIECES -------------- ¶3. (U Szeged mayor Laszlo Botka is a rising star of the Socialist party. The highly popular mayor has tackled Roma issues head-on, promoting school desegregation and assimilation programs that have boosted minority test scores. (Note: To put Botka's efforts in context, Szeged's Roma population is below two percent. End Note.) He is an advocate for foreign investment, and played a key role in helping his town attract a euro 160 million plus component of the European Union's Extreme Light Infrastructure ("Super Laser") project that will bring in 300 researchers and their families. ¶4. (C) Unlike the center-right opposition Fidesz party mayor in neighboring Pecs, who is embroiled in a high-profile dispute with the French multinational Suez (ref A),Botka is unabashedly pro-business. The French are the largest foreign investors in Szeged, and he meets regularly with their senior executives. Botka dismisses his Fidesz counterpart as "crazy," saying that local governments have to work with their business partners. "If there's a problem, use the courts," he said, adding that the Pecs dispute had given all of Hungary a black eye. ¶5. (C) The former water polo player turned politician was widely rumored to be on his party's short-list for prime minister in next April's parliamentary elections. Botka, however, categorically denies he will stand as a candidate. "I am happy where I am," he asserts. However, Botka may be playing a longer political game. He admits that the Socialist party is currently in disarray and stands to lose heavily in the upcoming elections. Railing against the resignation and apathy at the top, Botka stresses that his party has much about which to be proud. "We have to run on our record; sure, we've had our problems, but we've built highways and attracted foreign investment." ¶6. (C) Botka appears to be positioning himself to pick up the pieces. Looking ahead to the post-election political scene, Botka says the Socialists should not make any leadership changes right away. "We need to analyze carefully why we lost and internalize the lessons." By 2012, however, Botka believes that the current leadership -- many of whom are in their sixties -- should give way to a new generation. "By 2014 (national elections occur every four years),we have to be ready to challenge Fidesz." Botka stated that he planned to take "a much more active role" in reorganizing his party. THE DARKER SIDE - JOBBIK'S GROWING APPEAL -------------- ¶7. (C) There is, however, a darker side to Szeged's placid prosperity. According to Botka, support for the far-right Jobbik party is "only" 10 percent in Szeged, versus 15 BUDAPEST 00000822 002 OF 002 percent or higher elsewhere. More significantly, Botka claimed that some 30 percent of Szeged University's 30,000 students either sympathize with or support Jobbik. Asked why, Botka theorized that young people had become dissatisfied with older, traditional parties. "Look at us (the Socialist Party); what do we represent for youth? Capitalism, money, and authority. They're interested in rebellion." ¶8. (C) Dr. Klara Sandor, a professor of communications in Szeged's teacher training faculty, separately confirmed Jobbik's appeal to the young. "These kids are at a sensitive age; they're in the process of finding themselves," she said. Jobbik, with its emotional, nationalistic, and anti-establishment message of strength through unity, offered young people a sense of identity and belonging. ¶9. (C) Sandor asserted that far-right sympathizers were growing in strength in Szeged's history, law, and teacher training faculties, and had begun to be active in student government. Sandor, an elected member of parliament of the leftist Alliance of Free Democrats party (SzDSz),despaired of the far-right's developing, if still marginal, influence. "Big Hungary (pre-Trianon) maps are everywhere," she lamented, remarking bitterly that her party would likely not survive the next elections. Clearly disenchanted about potentially having to join the Socialist party, Sandor said liberals like her would soon have "no home." ¶10. (C) Conservative columnist and Szeged bochemistry professor, Dr. Frigyes Solymosi, also expressed concern about Jobbik's gaining popularity with young voters. Solymosi, a one-time close advisor to Fidesz party leader Viktor Orban, said he had unsuccessfully warned -- and fallen out with -- Orban two years ago about the danger posed by Jobbik. ¶11. (C) Solymosi worried that by not taking a stronger stand against the far right, Fidesz had allowed Jobbik to grow, and may have opened a Pandora's Box. "I was 13 years old in 1944 and remember the Nyilas; Jobbik and the Magyar Garda wear the same uniforms and utter the same rhetoric," Solymosi stated, adding, "What happens if Jobbik gets into Parliament?" ¶12. (C) COMMENT. Mayor Botka is clearly someone to watch in the coming years as the Socialist party tries to rebuild itself and craft a challenge to Fidesz. The apparent appeal of Jobbik to young voters is disturbing. We will be looking at this phenomenon more closely in the run-up to the April elections. LEVINE