THE SHIFTING POLITICAL GROUNDS OF NORTHEAST HUNGARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000790

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE JAMIE MOORE. NSC FOR JEFF HOVENIER.

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2012
TAGS: PGOV HU
SUBJECT: THE SHIFTING POLITICAL GROUNDS OF NORTHEAST HUNGARY

Classified By: Political Counselor Paul C. O'Friel
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. The political ground is shifting in
northeast Hungary, a former Socialist stronghold. Support
for center-right Fidesz has grown significantly, and its
politicians confidently predict a major victory in next
April's national elections. Negative stereotypes and
perceptions of Roma criminality have fed support for the
far-right Jobbik party, however. Some local Fidesz leaders
dismiss any threat posed by Jobbik. Others, though, are not
so sure, and believe that Jobbik may prove dangerous to
Fidesz's legislative agenda should the far right gain
sufficient seats in Parliament. End Summary.


2. (SBU) A recent visit to the Miskolc region of northeast
Hungary underscored just how much the political ground has
shifted in what was a one-time a Socialist Party (MSzP)
stronghold. In its heyday during the Communist period,
Miskolc -- Hungary's third largest city -- and its
surrounding area was a center of heavy industry. Many Roma
flocked to the region to find jobs in the mines and mills.
The years since 1989 have not been kind, however. The
factories have closed, and unemployment has skyrocketed,
especially among the Roma community, where it hovers in some
places close to 90 percent.

ECONOMIC WOES PRODUCE POLITICAL CHANGE
--------------


3. (SBU) The previously solid support for the Socialist
party has begun to crumble. A snapshot of the voting
statistics in the village of Sajoszentpeter provides a
telling story. In the 2006 national elections, out of 6194
voters who turned out, some 64 percent cast their vote for
MSzP, 27 percent backed center-right Fidesz, and 3 percent
supported MIEP, a far-right extremist party. In the June
2009 EU Parliamentary elections (which traditionally have a
lesser turn-out) the percentage of MSzP voters declined to 27
percent, Fidesz saw a significant gain of 42 percent, while
Jobbik, the far-right successor to MIEP, polled 22 percent
-- nearly matching the percentage of votes cast for the
once-dominant MSzP.


4. (C) Conversations with local politicians and everyday
voters confirmed the trend. Dr. Peter Farago, the Socialist
mayor of Sajoszentpeter, was one of MSzP's founders and has
been a member of Parliament since 1994. He is brutally frank
about MSzP's chances in next April's national elections:
"We're going to lose." According to Farago, the Socialists
are still paying the price for former Prime Minister
Gyurcsany's leaked 2006 Lake Balaton speech to party
faithful, in which Gyurcsany admitted to fiddling with
economic figures in order to win the election. "We still
haven't recovered our credibility," Farago glumly admitted.


5. (C) Farago is focused on securing his base in
Sajoszentpeter, where he has served as mayor for the last
three years. He has succeeded in obtaining EU/national
development assistance and has installed new sidewalks,
parks, and flower beds. While resigned to his party's defeat
at the national level, the highly popular mayor appears
secure in his sinecure.

ROMA - A "LOST GENERATION" AFTER 1989
--------------


6. (C) Asked about the Roma community, Farago observed that
they were the "losers in regime change." Large scale
unemployment has caused some Roma to turn to crime and drugs.
The perception of rising Roma criminality in turn has
spurred the growth of Jobbik, whom Farago dismisses as
"fascists." "They're no different from the (1940's era)
Nyilasok; they even wear the same uniforms." Nonetheless, he
commented ruefully "even though people don't want to admit
it, a lot of them support Jobbik."


7. (C) A local Roma community leader, Laszlo Szilardi,
separately echoed Farago's analysis. In 1982, he said, 82
percent of Roma men in the Miskolc area had a job. Regime
change in 1989 brought "total chaos" when thousands of
workers were let go due to restructuring and privatization.
Twenty years later, chronic unemployment, deep poverty, and a
welfare-based culture have produced a "lost generation."
Some Roma had turned to crime, Szilardi admitted, fueling
widely held stereotypes and the perception of insecurity that
fed the rise of Jobbik and put the Roma community in a
difficult situation. Szilardi argued that the only solution
was a comprehensive program to address the root issues of
education and employment. "We have to mobilize," he said,

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while recognizing that the Roma community remained
disorganized and divided, and still had not found its
political voice.

FIDESZ CONFIDENT OF EASY VICTORY
--------------


8. (C) Fidesz politician Dr. Robert Repassy is clearly
confident about MSzP's anticipated defeat in next April's
elections. The Socialists, he said, were leaderless. "Aside
from (former Prime Minister) Gyurcsany, no one is in the same
weight class as (Fidesz party leader) Orban." Repassy
distanced himself from the anti-Semitic and homophobic
remarks of local Fidesz mayor Oszkar Molnar, whom he
dismissed "as an idiot who does not represent the party."
Repassy admitted, however, that Molnar's comments reflected
badly on Fidesz, and claimed that moves were underway to
discipline him. Repassy downplayed any threat to Fidesz from
Jobbik.

I KNOW I SHOULDN'T VOTE FOR JOBBIK, BUT...
--------------


9. (SBU) A sample of the opinion of local farmers indicated
that at least some voters are looking to Jobbik as an
alternative to both MSzP and Fidesz. The agricultural
community around Miskolc suffered shocks, as well, after

1989. Former markets in Russia disappeared and local
producers find themselves unable to compete with cheaper
imported products that have flooded omni-present large chain
stores, such as Tesco and Auchan. Hungarian goods have been
forced off the shelves, they complain, pointing to the lack
of any coherent government agricultural policy to protect
local farmers. Economic dislocation and perceptions of
insecurity have fed support for Jobbik. One young farmer
claimed, "The majority of people here support Jobbik." An
older, retired railroad engineer -- and ex-Communist, living
on a monthly pension equivalent to $400 said, "I know in my
head I shouldn't vote for them, but my heart tells me a
different story."


10. (C) COMMENT. A subsequent conversation with another
Miskolc-based Fidesz representative, Dr. Ildiko Pelcz Gall,
showed not everyone is as sanguine as Repassy. Pelcz Gall,
who is one of five Parliamentary deputy speakers, called
Jobbik "dangerous," and expressed fears that the far right,
should it gain sufficient seats in Parliament in next April's
elections, could undermine Fidesz's legislative agenda. As
Hungary's political landscape reshapes itself, the open
question next April is to what degree voters in Miskolc and
other regions will listen to their heart over their head when
it comes to Jobbik.
LEVINE